Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Pine Island Center, FL

DISCUSSION
Issued at 1201 AM EST Sat Nov 8 2025 Little change to the overall analysis as the U/L pattern has begun to amplify which will continue through the weekend as a deep trough will be carved out by Sunday extending from Hudson Bay to the northern Gulf coast. Sharp ridging will take place upstream of the trough from the western U.S. north into western Canada. The main east coast trough axis will rotate out over the western Atlantic Monday night and Tuesday. A broad mean trough will remain over the eastern U.S. with a ridge out west. This will be temporary as the pattern will become more progressive as a strong Pacific system will push onshore the west coast of the U.S.
forcing the ridge east over the plains states by late in the week.

Remnants of an U/L disturbance over the central Gulf continue to produce a few thunderstorms over 100 miles offshore the west coast of Florida. As this system begins to be picked up by the westerlies and moves east today, a few thunderstorms may move over the outer waters early this morning, but are expected to dissipate before reaching the coast.

Weak surface high pressure will hold over the Florida peninsula today and Sunday with continued warm rather humid conditions for early November. Patchy/Areas of fog early this morning, and again redeveloping after midnight tonight...mainly away from the coast.
Fog will lift by mid morning each day.

As the U/L pattern amplifies over the weekend, a strong area of Canadian high pressure will dive south out of Canada through the plains states. The associated cold front will push across the Florida peninsula Sunday night. Deep layer moisture will be limited so only a chance of a shower or thunderstorm expected ahead of the frontal passage.

Cold Canadian airmass will advect across the forecast area Sunday night and Monday in the wake of the front...with temperatures on Monday likely holding steady or falling slowly through the day with gusty northwest winds. High temperatures on Monday will be in the lower to mid 60s north
mid to upper 60s central
and the lower to mid 70s south. As the cold air rides over the warm waters of the Gulf, a large area of strato-cu will likely develop over the eastern Gulf and may advect locally onshore. Can't rule out an isolated sprinkle or light shower, primarily over the coastal waters.

Monday night will be clear and cold with overnight lows in the lower to mid 30s north
mid to upper 30s central
and lower to mid 40s south. Temperatures will be a bit warmer along the immediate coast. North winds will persist which will make it feel even colder with wind chills in the mid 20s north...upper 20s to lower 30s central...and the mid 30s south. Potential that temps across northern areas could be a category colder if the center of the surface high sinks a bit further south allowing winds to collapse which would enhance radiational cooling.

The surface high will hold over the region on Tuesday with highs ranging from the upper 50s to around 60 north, the lower 60s central, and the mid 60s south under sunny skies. This equates the daily average temperature to be about 15 to 20 degrees below climatic normals. Another cold night on tap Tuesday night with lows in the mid to upper 30s north
lower 40s central
and the mid to upper 40s south. Caveat will be that winds will be relatively light Tuesday night so wind chill readings are not expected to be much different from the actual temperatures.

The area of high pressure will hold over the area Wednesday, but the airmass will begin to modify with temperatures climbing into the upper 60s to around 70 north
lower 70s central
and the mid 70s south under sunny skies. And the warming trend will continue into the latter part of the week with temperatures returning to near climatic normals.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1201 AM EST Sat Nov 8 2025 Areas of fog early this morning may cause MVFR VSBYs at terminals for several hours. The fog may be locally dense with LCL IFR VSBYs. The fog will lift by mid morning with skies becoming predominately SCT040-050 SCT250.

MARINE
Issued at 1201 AM EST Sat Nov 8 2025 Gradient will remain rather weak today and Sunday with south to southwest winds below cautionary levels. A strong cold front will push across the waters Sunday night and Monday with winds shifting to the northwest and likely increasing to SCA levels across all of the waters with hazardous boating conditions developing. Winds and seas will gradually subside on Tuesday.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 1201 AM EST Sat Nov 8 2025 No fire weather hazards are expected through the weekend as sufficient moisture will keep minimum afternoon relative humidity values well above critical levels. Fire weather hazards will likely increase early next week behind a cold front as much drier air will advect over the region on gusty north to northwest winds.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 85 71 83 60 / 10 10 20 0 FMY 87 70 85 67 / 0 0 10 10 GIF 88 68 85 59 / 10 10 20 10 SRQ 83 70 82 61 / 0 10 20 10 BKV 85 65 82 52 / 10 10 30 0 SPG 82 72 80 61 / 10 10 20 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.