Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Pine Island Center, FL

DISCUSSION
Issued at 350 AM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Warm conditions this afternoon as heat indices are expected to reach 105-110 degrees across the area, with a Heat Advisory in effect from late this morning through the afternoon. Surface ridge axis remains just south of the area with W/SW flow across W FL.
Remnants of TS Arthur passing by to the north across the SE U.S.
over the next 24-36 hours will enhance the gradient leading to occasionally breezy conditions locally today and Friday, particularly across coastal counties, elevating the rip current risk at WC/SWFL beaches as well. W/SW flow will limit most PoPs to areas east of the I-75 corridor this afternoon and evening where isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible, with heavy downpours with slow-moving perhaps producing brief ponding of water in favorable locations. A conditional threat of a few strong wind gusts across Northern CWA areas mainly over Levy County also exists if convection can manage to form given the closer proximity to the remnants of Arthur.

Gradually increasing moisture through the weekend with continued onshore W/SW flow will lead to continued heat risks, with additional heat advisories possible as maximum daily indices remain 105+ degrees, while scattered to numerous showers and storms develop away from the immediate coast and focus over the interior through the afternoon and evening hours. Slightly drier air works into the state early next week limiting PoPs mainly to the isolated-scattered variety on Monday-Tuesday, generally over the interior and along/south of I-4, before the ridge axis drifts back north across the area favoring increased sea breeze convection and associated PoPs by mid week. Temps remain rather toasty through remainder of the period with highs in the mid/upper 90s away from the immediate coast and heat indices 105+ degrees, while immediate coastal areas remain in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 350 AM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Dry VFR likely through period with onshore flow favoring convection remaining generally east/inland of terminals. Only exception perhaps LAL where most guidance keeps convection to the east, however some guidance indicates potential for development near terminal before moving east. No mention this cycle given low confidence in location, but may warrant inclusion in later cycles.

MARINE
Issued at 350 AM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Winds increasing to Cautionary levels today for northern and central waters as the gradient tightens in response to ridging south of the waters and the remnants of TS Arthur passing north of the waters. Winds and associated elevated seas gradually decrease on Friday into the weekend with no additional headlines expected.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 350 AM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Warm and humid conditions likely through the period. Breezy conditions with higher dispersions expected today, lingering into Friday before diminishing as the remnants of TS Arthur pass to the north of the area. Showers and storms most likely away from the immediate coast through the weekend, then over interior and areas south of I-4 early next week before again expanding across mainly areas away from the immediate coast by mid week. No RH concerns expected.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 92 83 92 81 / 10 10 20 10 FMY 94 80 95 79 / 10 10 20 10 GIF 96 78 96 77 / 40 20 40 10 SRQ 93 81 93 80 / 10 0 20 0 BKV 96 79 94 77 / 10 10 20 10 SPG 93 82 93 81 / 10 10 20 10

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 5 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 5

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https:// www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando- Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Pasco-Coastal Sarasota-DeSoto-Hardee-Highlands-Inland Charlotte-Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando-Inland Hillsborough- Inland Lee-Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco-Inland Sarasota- Pinellas-Polk-Sumter.

High Rip Current Risk from 8 AM EDT this morning through Friday morning for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

Gulf waters...None.