Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Cloud Lake, FL

UPDATE
Issued at 702 PM EDT Thu Sep 10 2026

The skies will clear once again tonight across South Florida and combined with temperatures in the mid 70s to low 80s, a balmy evening should hold through to the morning. Light and variable winds overnight will give way to a light SE flow tomorrow morning, which will set up the east coast metros for a repeated pattern of daytime showers and thunderstorms. Activity will kick off after sunrise and will push into central South Florida by the early afternoon.

Areal flooding will be the primary risk with tomorrow's storms, with maximum forecasted rainfall values around 2 inches. Lightning and gusty winds are anticipated but the development of severe thunderstorms continues to be unfavorable tomorrow. Conditions for severe storms are unfavorable due to a combination of factors including a lack of upper level forcing, shallow lapse rates and little to no shear to help organize storms. Deep moisture and elevated temperatures through the column reduce the potential for strong downdrafts but gusty winds up to 40 mph are still possible.

UPDATE
Issued at 208 PM EDT Thu Sep 10 2026

The forecast remains on track this afternoon, with wet and unsettled conditions expected through the early evening hours. Early rounds of showers and storms have already dropped about an inch of rain across portions of the East Coast metro today, with some areas receiving 2- 3 inches where storms have clustered. The prevailing southeasterly flow will continue to push convection towards the northwest, with activity focusing over the interior and Gulf coast later this afternoon. Chances for severe winds or hail remain very low given an anomalously warm and very moistened atmospheric column; however, frequent lightning, heavy rain and gusty winds up to 40 mph could be possible with some of the stronger storms.

The pattern discussed in the previous Short Term discussion will remain generally unchanged tomorrow as ridging dominates across the region for the foreseeable future, and rinse and repeat conditions will be expected across the entire area starting mid morning onwards.

SHORT TERM
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 124 AM EDT Thu Sep 10 2026

05z Mesoanalysis and wide lens visuals from GOES-19's upper-level water vapor imagery depict a continuation of pronounced mid to upper level anticyclonic flow across most of the southeastern United States this morning. While a combined southern and polar jet-stream will continue to remain in a zonal orientation across the northern half of the United States today, a transient lobe of longwave troughing (already quite evident on GOES-19 mid/upper level imagery)
will accelerate eastward across the northern United States. The arrival/injection of synoptic forcing across the eastern United States will result in an acceleration and displacement of the aforementioned upper-level ridge currently over the SE CONUS into the western Atlantic waters by this afternoon. In response, 500mb flow will veer slightly more southerly during this time frame which may result in the greatest foci of convection across the Lake Okeechobee region as well as inland southwestern Florida this afternoon and evening. Before we head further down the atmospheric column for the rest of our analysis, it is worth mentioning that deterministic and ensemble guidance has come into better agreement on the evolution of a mid to upper level impulse lifting northwards across the region over the course of today. Guidance suggests that periphery vorticity on the fringe of an upper level low far to our south over the western Caribbean Sea will splinter off and slowly lift north across the region today. As the impulse lifts northwards over our area via general anticyclonic flow around the mid to upper level ridge, 500mb temperatures over South Florida will cool slightly to near or just below (-6C to -7C) the climatological mean, steepen low to mid level lapse rates, and enhance convection just enough for coverage to become more widespread in nature later today.
At the surface, an expansive ridge of surface high pressure across the western Atlantic waters will remain in firm control of prevailing background surface flow, keeping winds out of a gentle to moderate southeasterly direction outside of any diurnal mesoscale circulations. A short lived surge of "relatively" drier air observed over the last several hours will give way to increasing low level boundary moisture and higher PWATs for the remainder of today as a plume of deep moisture associated with a weak surface trough (per NHC/TAFB's 00z surface analysis) moves into and across South Florida. With the overall pattern for today covered, let's break down how things are forecast to play out.

The confluence of a land breeze and light easterly to southeasterly flow over the nearshore Atlantic waters will once again set the stage for another bout of morning shower and thunderstorm activity across the instability laden Gulfstream waters over the next several hours. With the aforementioned easterly wind component persisting, scattered showers and thunderstorms may periodically move onshore across coastal and metro portions of southeastern Florida for much of the morning hours before an otherwise stable atmosphere onshore results in the waning and dissipation of any convective activity further inland. Diurnal heating and the erosion of a stout near surface inversion (and any residual convective inhibition) will give way to widespread cumulus development across most of the peninsula during the late morning and early afternoon hours before southeasterly background flow focuses the bulk of diurnal convective activity across southwestern Florida and the Lake Okeechobee region.
Once again, ample instability (forecasted CAPE of 3000-4000+ J/kg)
and moisture will lead to scattered to numerous shower and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. However with the lack of significant synoptic forcing, the threat of strong/severe convection remains minimal as temperatures remain warm aloft and low to mid level lapse rates remain rather lackluster and unassuming. The classic low shear, high instability environment will support outflow dominant multicellular clusters as convective cores congeal.
Frequent lightning, gusty sub-severe winds, and pockets of heavy rainfall remains the primary hazard with showers and thunderstorms today. HRRR guidance once again suggests a reasonable worst case solution of localized swaths of 2-3+" across the western half of the peninsula this afternoon and evening which may result in some minor localized flooding concerns if urban areas are directly impacted.
These isolated QPF maxima's will mainly occur when convection is pinned along boundary collisions. The greatest confidence for these higher QPF values per the HRRR/REFS is across inland southwestern Florida along the confluence of the gulf breeze and outflow from earlier convection to the east.

High temperatures are forecast to peak in the low to mid 90s across most of South Florida this afternoon before convection (and resultant cloud debris) act to cool temperatures down at impacted locales. Before any relief from the heat, ample humidity and sunshine will result in apparent temperatures reaching the 100F to 105F degree range across most of the region with peak apparent temperature values closer to 106-107F across coastal southwestern Florida. NWS's Probabilistic HeatRisk has high probabilities (80- 100%) of Moderate HeatRisk across all urban areas of SoFlo and low to moderate probabilities (20-40%) of Major HeatRisk across portions of urban southeastern Florida today. Be sure to take necessary heat precautions today if you or your loved ones are sensitive to heat.

Diurnal convection will once again wane in areal coverage after sunset this evening with the loss of surface heating, resulting in a lull in activity during the first half of tonight. A saturated low level boundary layer, light southeasterly surface flow, and ample instability offshore will once again support development of nocturnal convection across the nearshore Atlantic waters and immediate east coast of South Florida beginning during the early morning hours of Friday. Aloft, the axis of mid to upper level ridging over the western Atlantic waters will slide southwestward and directly overhead of South Florida on Friday. 500mb temperatures will remain near the climatological mean for this time of year with overall convective threats remaining rather similar to what is expected for today: dangerous cloud to ground lightning, heavy rainfall, and gusty sub-severe winds. Continued southeasterly flow across South Florida around the aforementioned surface ridge axis over the western Atlantic waters will will keep the standard easterly flow regime in place once again on Friday with convective activity gradually propagating on a spatial and temporal scale from east to west as the day progresses. The greatest QPF signal will once again reside across inland southwestern Florida as the convergence and ascent along the gulf breeze is maximized.

A rinse and repeat pattern is forecast on the temperature side of the house on Friday as temperatures at daybreak will range from the muggy low 80s along the immediate east coast to low 70s across inland locales. Ample surface heating will result in peak afternoon temperature values in the low to mid 90s once again. Apparent temperatures (widespread 100F-105F) will remain below Heat Advisory criteria but could still prove to be impactful given heat sensitivity or prolonged outdoor exposure with no precautions.

LONG TERM
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 124 AM EDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Both surface and upper-level weather patterns, minus some minor tweaks on occasion, are forecast to remain rather static over the upcoming weekend and into next week. The only major alteration that we will be keeping a close eye on is the potential intrusion of Saharan dust that could have some implications on our daily PoPs should it come to fruition, but this will be discussed in further detailed promptly. High pressure, for a start, will be a frequently messaged term and repeatedly relayed over the next several days. In the upper levels, a primary ridge axis centered over the subtropical Atlantic this weekend will be displaced eastward. Our focus will subsequently shift to a new centralized area of high pressure that will be taking shape over the northeastern Gulf and later advance towards the Southeast/Mid-Atlantic United States where it is forecast to amplify quite notably during the upcoming work week.
ECMWF ensemble data suggests that 500-mb height anomalies could be at the 99th percentile for climatology during the second half of the weekend and into early next week across our peninsular waters when the ridge will be in its earliest fortification phases and closest vicinity to South Florida. As the aforementioned shift toward the SE/Mid-Atlantic US occurs thereafter, the ridge will only continue to strengthen with the ECMWF grand ensemble hinting at mean 500-mb heights being at or near all-time records and enveloping maximum climatological percentiles through midweek.

As for the implications this will have on South Florida, it will help maintain a steady flow aloft primarily out of the east through the weekend and into the following work week that will strictly refrain us from being impacted from any frontal systems dropping south from the higher latitudes but rather by occasional shortwave impulses (which won't be of much concern anyways) propagating from east to west along the southern periphery of this abnormally compelling anticyclonic feature. As mentioned in the beginning of this discussion, there are signals amongst the models that a large plume of Saharan dust will be riding our low-level easterlies from the Greater Antilles through the Bahamas and potentially intruding into South Florida late this weekend and into next week, but mainly next week. Persistent subtropical ridging will be rambling back and forth over the corresponding Atlantic waters through this entire long-term period, helping to induce a resolute east to southeasterly flow across South Florida this weekend and backing to more of a east to northeasterly direction next week. Though long range model data and NASA Dust Extinction Aerosol forecast products do show some Saharan dust entering our atmospheric column next week, it appears as if the forecast has remained consistent for the time being in keeping the deepest concentrations to our south over the western Caribbean Sea. National Blend of Models (NBM) reflects this, with PWATs mostly remaining above 2" through the weekend (60-80th percentiles as per climatology) but then dropping sharply come next week with these same values being reduced to the 1.7-2.0" range.
This is also visualized in forecast soundings with drier air and larger dew point depressions progressively becoming more evident through Wednesday of next week.

With moisture content remaining above average through the weekend and our predominant easterly surface flow in place, expect a fairly typical summertime pattern to stay firm with showers and thunderstorms developing over our local waters during each overnight period at the expense of plentiful available instability (CAPE of 2000-3500 J/Kg as indicated by deterministic models) and the marine diurnal max (DMAX) cycle occurring over and around the warm, adjacent Gulf Stream waters. Expect these showers and storms to gradually push onshore every morning and increase in coverage thereafter as they go on to favor our downwind locations i.e. the western half of South Florida during the afternoon and early evening hours. Localized flooding will be a point of emphasis in and around the Naples metro each afternoon this weekend and into early next week amid fairly weak flow aloft (bulk shear mainly below 10 kts)
and the impending Gulf sea breeze counteracting our easterly surface flow. It is not until the latter half of this long term forecast (specifically Tuesday and Wednesday) that not only our background flow starts to strengthen to a degree with the coinciding ridge amplification across the SE/Mid-Atlantic US but also an increasing easterly flow at the surface looks to offset the Gulf sea breeze from pushing inland and thereby minimize the potential for slow- moving storms/urban flooding. Both storm coverage and intensity are still question marks going into next week, as the uncertainty involving the magnitude/quantity of dry air/dust intrusion we could possibly observe next week still very much exists. With our prevailing easterly surface flow (and through much of the low to mid levels for that matter), however, we should expect the highest afternoon rain chances to favor the western half of South Florida regardless. Given that rapid/robust storm upgrowth via moisture gradients and downburst potential are typically hot topics of conversation when discussing Saharan air intrusions, it is something we will have to keep an eye on over the next several days and specifically how the models evolve over time with respect to it.
Overall, we should remain in a rather fixed configuration in terms of easterly flow and precipitation with QPFs showing the bullseye of 7-day rainfall totals over SW Florida, totally evident of a routine summertime pattern here.

Typical South Florida heat through the upcoming weekend and into next week, with highs consistently reaching the low to mid 90s each afternoon and maximum apparent/feels-like temperatures in the 100- 105F range (with isolated higher values of 106-107F). Make sure to take the proper precautions to protect yourself and those around you from these elevated temperatures. Rip currents across our east coast beaches will also be something to be cognizant of over the next 3-7 days with this persistent easterly flow (rip probs hovering around 25% through next week at our N Miami, FTL, and Juno Beach observing stations, bordering a moderate designation).

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 702 PM EDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Light and variable winds overnight will give way to a light 5 to 10 knot SE wind flow early tomorrow morning, which will set up the East Coast metro for a repeated pattern of morning showers and thunderstorms. Activity along the East Coast will kick off shortly after sunrise and will impact the eastern terminals first, followed by KAPF later in the afternoon as storms push NW into central South Florida. Conditions are forecast to improve after 00Z tomorrow as the storms exit the region.

MARINE
Issued at 124 AM EDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Gentle to moderate southeasterly winds will prevail across the local waters of South Florida for the remainder of the work week. The exception to this will be a brief period each afternoon across the nearshore Gulf waters as surface winds become more southerly in direction due to the gulf sea breeze circulation. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop over the local waters both during the day and overnight periods. Gusty and erratic winds, dangerous lightning, and sudden periods of rough seas, will be possible in and around any thunderstorm activity. Wave heights across the Atlantic waters will decrease to 2-3 feet by this afternoon as northeasterly swell gradually subsides. Seas across the nearshore Gulf waters will remain below 2 feet for the remainder of the work week.

BEACHES
Issued at 124 AM EDT Thu Sep 10 2026

The combination of northeasterly swell and onshore surface winds will result in a moderate risk of rip currents at all east coast beaches today. Many rip current fatalities occur on moderate days as signage/communication of the threat of deadly rip currents is not as amplified as high risk days. When in doubt, don't venture out.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Miami 81 91 80 91 / 20 60 50 70 West Kendall 78 91 78 90 / 20 60 50 70 Opa-Locka 79 91 80 91 / 20 60 50 70 Homestead 79 91 79 91 / 20 60 50 70 Fort Lauderdale 81 90 80 90 / 20 60 50 70 N Ft Lauderdale 81 91 81 91 / 20 60 50 70 Pembroke Pines 80 91 80 91 / 20 60 50 70 West Palm Beach 79 92 79 92 / 30 50 60 80 Boca Raton 81 90 81 90 / 20 60 50 70 Naples 76 92 77 91 / 30 60 30 70

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.