Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Rotonda, FL

DISCUSSION
Issued at 200 PM EST Sat Jan 17 2026

Our next round of chilly weather is on the way. A cold front will sweep through the region Sunday preceded by some showers. High pressure builds in behind the boundary with gusty northwest to north winds ushering in cold dry air. Winds will gradually diminish Sunday night with freezing temperatures likely across the Nature Coast south into inland parts of central Florida Monday morning. High pressure will move into the southeast U.S. on Monday with mainly sunny skies, but rather cool temperatures about 10 to 15 degrees below normal. Monday night into Tuesday will remain mostly clear with some more freezing temperatures expected across the Nature Coast and frost possible further south into inland parts of the central Florida peninsula. By midweek the surface high will move out into the western Atlantic Ocean with a decent moderating trend getting underway. However, broad upper level troughing will remain over the central and eastern U.S. with shortwave energy moving through it. One of these waves will move across the region Thursday into Friday leading to an increase in moisture with clouds and some rain possible, but temperatures will recover back to near to a few degrees above normal.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 200 PM EST Sat Jan 17 2026

VFR conditions should prevail into tonight, then areas of MVFR ceilings along with with a few showers will be possible Sunday morning as the cold front moves across the region. Southeast winds at 5 to 10 knots will shift to south to southwest this afternoon then become light and variable this evening. Southwest to west winds 5 to 10 knots early Sunday morning will shift to northwest behind the front and increase to 15 to 20 knots and gusty by afternoon.

MARINE
Issued at 200 PM EST Sat Jan 17 2026

High pressure ridging across the waters from the Atlantic will keep marine conditions below headline criteria tonight. Winds will increase Sunday as the next cold front moves across the waters bringing some showers with it. Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected to develop behind the front on Sunday continuing into Sunday night. Conditions will improve some on Monday, but a tight pressure gradient will keep winds around Exercise Caution levels through midweek.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 200 PM EST Sat Jan 17 2026

Moisture recovery continues in the southerly flow ahead of a cold front that will push across the region on Sunday. Gusty northwest to north winds will develop across the area behind the boundary ushering in another round of cold dry air. Winds will diminish below 15 mph Monday, but widespread critical relative humidity values are expected. By Tuesday the moderating trend will get underway, but we will still see some areas of critical relative humidity values.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 72 55 67 37 / 0 20 60 0 FMY 75 57 75 38 / 0 0 30 0 GIF 74 53 70 33 / 0 10 50 0 SRQ 73 54 71 38 / 0 10 60 0 BKV 73 46 64 27 / 0 30 70 0 SPG 72 58 68 43 / 0 20 60 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...Freeze Watch from late Sunday night through Monday morning for Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Levy-Inland Citrus- Inland Hernando-Inland Hillsborough-Inland Levy-Inland Pasco-Polk-Sumter.

Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 7 PM EST Sunday for Tampa Bay waters.

Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Sunday to 1 AM EST Monday for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound.

Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM to 7 PM EST Sunday for Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM- Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Sunday to 1 AM EST Monday for Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Sunday to 7 AM EST Monday for Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM- Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM.