Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Rotonda, FL

UPDATE
Issued at 657 PM EST Wed Feb 11 2026

Despite a weak front moving through earlier today, really the only notable difference from last night is that the surface moisture has increased. This favors greater fog coverage across the region overnight. Thus, the main question is if winds near the coast will become light enough for fog to develop near and along the coast, or if this region will only see low clouds. Ensembles are hovering around a 50-50 chance.

Overall, the forecast is consistent with these expectations and remains on track. No adjustments are needed at this time.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 116 PM EST Wed Feb 11 2026

A little shift in the patter today as an upper level disturbance moves across the region, bringing some extra moisture. A weak cold front will also drift south over North Florida today, stalling over the region into Friday. A few isolated showers could be possible tonight into tomorrow. Fog will also be likely overnight tonight into tomorrow morning, with some areas being dense causing low visibility for the morning commute. Sea fog could also develop along the nature coast then move south towards Tampa Bay early in the morning.

Over the weekend another cold front will move through bringing a better chance of rain Sunday into Monday. A few thunderstorms could also be possible as the system moves through. Unlike the previous cold fronts, temperatures will only drop a couple degrees behind the front as dry air moves in. High pressure builds back in by Tuesday keeping conditions warm and dry through mid week.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 657 PM EST Wed Feb 11 2026

A period of IFR and likely LIFR conditions is forecast for all terminals. The probability of LIFR conditions due to low CIGs is high (around 75%). For coastal terminals, the visibility is the less certain component, with about a 50% chance for IFR to LIFR VSBYs. Over the next few days, fog and low clouds will remain the primary aviation impact.

MARINE
Issued at 116 PM EST Wed Feb 11 2026

Quiet marine conditions continue through remain of the week. A few showers could move over the water tonight and tomorrow as a weak front moves over the area. Winds will remain light. A stronger cold front moves through Sunday, with winds increasing to around advisory levels for a short period of time. Sea fog is likely to develop tonight along the nature coast then push south towards Tampa Bay by early morning. By early next week, high pressure builds back in and conditions become quiet once again.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 116 PM EST Wed Feb 11 2026

Moisture continues to increase today and tomorrow as cold front moves over the area. RH values will remain above critical levels through the remainder of the week, with winds less than 15 mph expected.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 59 73 58 76 / 10 30 0 10 FMY 56 76 58 78 / 0 10 0 10 GIF 57 76 56 77 / 0 30 0 20 SRQ 57 72 57 75 / 0 20 0 10 BKV 52 75 49 77 / 10 30 0 10 SPG 61 71 61 74 / 0 30 0 10

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.