DISCUSSION
Issued at 232 PM EDT Wed Sep 11 2024

A stalled frontal boundary and the ridge axis remain to our north for one more day. This is leading to light easterly flow which means rain and storms will develop inland and then push westward through the afternoon and early evening hours before diminishing. Like previous days, much of the activity will develop off sea breeze and outflow boundary collisions. Despite substantial moisture across the state with over 2" PWATs, precipitation amounts along the west coast of Florida will be limited. General 0.25-0.50" of rainfall is expected across interior portions of the forecast area.

As Hurricane Francine moves northward through the day on Thursday and into Friday, the stationary boundary that has been plaguing northern Florida for days will finally lift northward in response as well. The ridge axis will build to our south and our flow will turn more southwesterly. This, combined with slightly drier air shifting into the region, will lead to lower rain chances for the area beginning at the end of this week and lasting through the weekend and into early next week. Afternoon high temperatures throughout the period will remain around 90 degrees for most, with peak heat index values reaching between 100-105 degrees.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 752 PM EDT Wed Sep 11 2024

Abundant atmospheric moisture in place will support the development of low stratus overnight with MVFR/IFR CIGs possible at KPIE/KTPA/KLAL into Thursday morning. Any low clouds that develop should gradually scatter out after 13Z/14Z Thursday with VFR conditions generally in control throughout the remainder of the day, though brief restrictions will be possible as SCT TSRA is expected to develop along the sea breeze.

MARINE
Issued at 232 PM EDT Wed Sep 11 2024

Light east/southeast flow continues today. Hurricane Francine in the western Gulf is sending increased wave heights and long period swells to the west coast of Florida. This will lead to an elevated rip current risk beginning this afternoon and lasting through Thursday and Friday. A Rip Current Risk Statement has been issued from Pinellas County southward through Friday evening. Francine will lift north and dissipate by the end of the week, allowing the swells and wave heights to decrease into the weekend.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 232 PM EDT Wed Sep 11 2024

No fire weather concerns as abundant moisture will lead to relative humidity values remaining well above critical levels. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop each day, mainly in the afternoon and evening hours.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 77 90 77 90 / 30 50 20 60 FMY 78 93 78 93 / 30 50 20 50 GIF 77 92 77 93 / 30 60 10 70 SRQ 77 91 77 91 / 30 40 20 50 BKV 75 90 74 91 / 20 60 20 70 SPG 80 91 81 91 / 30 40 20 60

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 4 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 4

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https:// www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee- Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

Gulf waters...None.