Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Jupiter, FL

UPDATE
Issued at 417 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026

The forecast remains on track this afternoon as upper level ridging and surface high over the southeastern US become more established.
The weakened remnants of the cold front that moved across our area over the weekend remain draped over the Florida Straits this afternoon. SPC mesoanalysis shows moisture and instability remain maximized along that boundary (PWATs up to 2 inches and CAPE 2500- 3500 J/kg), with a divergence signature showing up at the 300mb level, suggesting continued rising air motion. This could bring a few additional rounds of rainfall across the area this afternoon, with a secondary area of activity along the southwestern coastline thanks to the easterly wind regime.

Ridging and high pressure will continue to build tomorrow, promoting continued easterly flow and a return to more summertime convective coverage across the region.

Temperatures will remain in the low 90s today, dropping to the 70s overnight and back up to the low to mid 90s tomorrow.

SHORT TERM
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 310 AM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Another spectacular edition of fake fall is nearing a untimely conclusion across South Florida this morning as 07z mesoanalysis and GOES East water vapor imagery reveal that moisture is slowly retrograding back into the region as deep-layer ridging remains established to the north of our area. With an elongated mid-level ridge draped across much of the southeastern United States, the synoptic pattern across our region will remain rather benign. As a surface ridge axis gradually slides eastward across the southeastern United States and into the western Atlantic waters today, surface wind flow will begin to veer to more of an easterly direction as a frontolytic boundary over the Florida Keys and an envelope of residual atmospheric moisture retrogrades back into the region. Today still appears to be, very much so a transition day between the current dry airmass in place across South Florida this morning and more substantial moisture advection later in the week. Breezy east-northeasterly flow and increasing moisture will support the potential of afternoon shower activity south of Alligator Alley today, where the best instability and moisture will reside. Activity will remain vertically capped in nature as moisture advection remains confined the the lowest level of the boundary layer with a copious amount of dry air. The latest forecast continues to depict 20-40% rain chances across the southern half of the region this afternoon. Forecast high temperatures range from the upper 80s along the east coast to values in the low 90s across southwestern Florida.

Mid-level ridging briefly established across the southeastern United States is forecast to propagate eastward on Thursday as the next lobe of troughing slides eastward across the central United States. For now at least, our weather regime here in South Florida will be primarily influenced by the surface ridge still situated over the western Atlantic waters. Surface winds will gradually veer to an easterly direction by Thursday afternoon as the axis of surface ridging across the southeastern United States pivots further eastward and wanes in strength. Consequently, the established pressure gradient will begin to subside with surface winds remaining light out of an easterly direction. This will focus the best afternoon and evening rain chances across the western half of the peninsula on Thursday. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms remain possible, although weak lapse rates and warm 500mb temperatures should keep the threat of strong convection to a minimum. High temperatures on Thursday will remain similar to today (upper 80s to low 90s, peak values forecast, however the increase in moisture will result in a return of apparent temperatures back into the 100-105F degree range during the late morning and early afternoon hours.

LONG TERM
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 417 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026

While all eyes are on the southeasterly digging front that could likely impact the region over the weekend, we also need to look out for potential impacts that will precede the front on Friday. In the lower levels, moisture advection from the south-southwest at the 700 and 850mb levels will drive a shallow but moist airmass over the region. Dewpoints values with this airmass are near the 90th percentile for this time of year, and coupled with surface temperatures in the low 90s, feels-like temperatures will reach into the low 100s across the region. Light surface winds will set us up for a near typical diurnal-heating pattern on Friday, with precipitation focused over inland South Florida. The thick low- level moisture layer will be ripe for releasing pockets of heavy rainfall, with ensemble guidance pointing to a 20-30% chance of 1 inch of rainfall and pockets of 2-4 inches in some areas. The sea breeze along the eastern metro areas is forecast to keep the heaviest rainfall well inland as it progresses west, but a shower or two can not be ruled out over the metro areas. There is good agreement amongst the ensemble members that temperatures aloft on Friday are predicted to be warmer than average, which should keep the risk of severe thunderstorms at marginal levels. All of this together points to the main risks for Friday being heat related, with inland areas at risk for isolated pockets of heavy rainfall.

Moving into the weekend, the speed of the propagating front will be a big player in the amount of rainfall that we may see over the weekend. The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) cluster analysis shows that the majority of the variance can be described by two different scenarios based on the speed of the front. The first scenario, which is more favored by the American ensemble (GEFS), shows that a more quickly propagating front will increase the amount of rain cross South Florida compared to the grand ensemble.
The second scenario is a more slowly propagating front which points towards a reduction in the amount of rainfall in our area compared to the grand ensemble. This second scenario is mostly favored by the European ensemble (ENS), while the Canadian ensemble (GEPS) is split between the two scenarios. More concrete rainfall totals for this event are still murky as the speed of the front is not yet fully resolved, but the WPC rainfall forecast is favoring higher totals (about 2-4 inches over the weekend) over the eastern metro area. We will be providing more information regarding impacts as the forecast becomes clearer so please stay tuned as we approach the weekend.

Following the front, there is better agreement across the ensemble guidance that a steep pressure gradient will set up over the entire state of Florida, bringing with it a jump in easterly winds. The exact timing of the onset of winds here will be tied to the speed and direction of the high pressure system building behind the front which is not completely resolved yet.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 125 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Breezy easterly flow continues today, with gusts up to 20 knots possible through the evening. VFR conditions should prevail, however, periods of MVFR/IFR could be likely across the East Coast through 20Z-21Z as storms move over the area. Easterly winds 5-10 knots will continue overnight, with a return of SHRA/TSRA and breezy conditions again tomorrow.

MARINE
Issued at 310 AM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Breezy northeasterly winds will prevail across the local waters of South Florida through tonight. Small Craft Exercise Caution (SCEC) conditions could be realized at times across the Atlantic and Gulf waters as winds enhance and lessen with nocturnal/diurnal cycles. Waves will remain 2-3 feet across the region through early Thursday with the caveat that locally higher waves and winds are possible in and around any shower or thunderstorm activity, mainly across our southern waters. While uncertainty remains, forecast confidence continues to increase for the potential of elevated seas and waves across the local waters of South Florida this weekend into early next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Miami 78 89 79 90 / 40 20 20 30 West Kendall 77 90 78 90 / 30 20 20 40 Opa-Locka 78 90 79 90 / 40 20 20 40 Homestead 78 90 78 90 / 40 20 20 30 Fort Lauderdale 78 88 79 89 / 40 20 20 40 N Ft Lauderdale 78 89 79 89 / 40 30 20 40 Pembroke Pines 78 89 78 90 / 40 20 20 40 West Palm Beach 78 89 78 89 / 20 50 30 50 Boca Raton 78 88 79 89 / 30 40 30 40 Naples 75 91 75 89 / 10 50 30 60

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.