Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Manasota Key, FL

DISCUSSION
Issued at 205 AM EDT Thu May 22 2025 An U/L disturbance will push across the southeast U.S. and Florida today as a broad U/L trough develops along the eastern seaboard.
An associated weak frontal boundary will move over the central Florida peninsula and become stationary tonight over the region as it becomes parallel to the U/L flow. A chance of showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms will be possible today across west central and southwest Florida, with the highest pops over the interior due to onshore flow. Drier low level air will advect across northern and central areas in the wake of the front with dew points dropping into the mid 50s north and the mid 60s central.

Residual deep layer moisture over the region on Friday combined with daytime heating and a conditionally unstable atmosphere will lead to a chance of mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms...with the highest pops again over the interior due to onshore west to northwest boundary layer flow.

The U/L subtropical ridge will build back over the Florida peninsula during the weekend which will lead to increasing large scale subsidence and warmer temperatures. Weak high pressure will also move over the eastern Gulf and Florida peninsula with boundary layer flow shifting to the south and southeast. This will begin to advect L/L moisture back to the north with dew points gradually increasing each day. Sufficient deep layer moisture will remain in place for a chance of showers and thunderstorms to develop each afternoon.

Not much change into early next week as pattern will remain similar. Daytime heating will generate a chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Onshore flow will develop each day which will push the west coast sea breeze inland by afternoon...with highest pops over the interior in proximity to the sea breeze boundary.

MARINE
Issued at 205 AM EDT Thu May 22 2025 Gradient overall will be relatively weak through the period with winds expected to remain below cautionary levels each day. Main hazard will be isolated showers and thunderstorms which may produce locally gusty winds and rough seas.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 205 AM EDT Thu May 22 2025 Dew points in the mid 50s combined with high temperatures in the upper 80s to around 90 will create critical RH's across the nature coast both today and Friday. Slightly higher dew points over central areas will keep minimum RH's just above critical values, in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Winds will remain below 15 MPH which will preclude RFW concerns.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 91 77 93 76 / 30 10 20 0 FMY 93 75 93 74 / 40 10 50 10 GIF 91 73 93 73 / 40 20 40 0 SRQ 91 76 91 74 / 20 10 20 0 BKV 90 66 93 66 / 30 10 10 0 SPG 90 78 90 77 / 20 10 20 0

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 4 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 4

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https:// www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.