Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Jupiter Island, FL

DISCUSSION
Issued at 239 AM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Today-Sunday...Subtropical ridge axis settles southward across Central Florida this weekend, with a mid-level ridge extending across the west Atlantic and Florida. PW values will range from 1.7- 1.9 inches across the area today, falling slightly across southern half of east central Florida into Sunday, as some drier air begins to work its way into the area. Similar to yesterday the ridge aloft should help suppress convective development to a degree, but scattered showers and storms will continue to be possible each afternoon as the east coast sea breeze develops and moves inland.
Greatest rain chances will continue to remain focused inland, especially near to NW of I-4 where late day boundary collisions are favored. PoPs each day range from 30-40 percent along the coast to 40-50 percent inland.

Lingering dry air aloft and DCAPE values of 800-1000 J/kg will continue the potential for isolated strong storm development, especially with sea breeze/outflow boundary collisions across the interior. Main storm threats will be frequent lightning strikes, strong wind gusts up to 40-50 mph and heavy downpours. Weak steering winds will lead to slow storm motion, generally toward the N/NW.
This may allow storms to produce locally heavy rainfall around 1-3 inches, leading to temporary minor flooding of low-lying and poor drainage areas.

Hot and humid conditions forecast to continue through the weekend, with highs ranging from the upper 80s/low 90s along the coast and low to mid 90s across the interior. Peak heat index values will continue to reach up to 100-105F each afternoon. It will remain muggy overnight with lows in the low to mid 70s.

Monday-Friday...Pattern changes little into next week, with subtropical ridge axis remaining across central Florida, and mid- level ridge remaining extended across the area. The GFS and ECMWF both show drier air moving into the area through early to mid week, with PW values decreasing to 1.5-1.7 inches Monday and potentially even lower through midweek. This drier air, warming mid level temps and ridge aloft should keep storm coverage near to below normal for much of next week. However, isolated to scattered showers and storms will still develop each day, with greatest coverage continuing to be focused across the interior with any boundary collisions through late afternoon/early evening. Kept PoPs limited to 30-50 percent each day. Occasional to frequent lightning strikes, gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall will continue to be the main threats from any storms that develop.

The overall trend of decreasing storm coverage into next week is forecast to allow the heat to intensify slightly. Highs in the mid 90s will become a little more widespread across the interior into next week, with max temps in the low 90s along the coast. Peak heat index values are forecast to continue to range around 100-105F across east central Florida each afternoon.

MARINE
Issued at 239 AM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Today-Wednesday...Subtropical ridge axis settles back southward across central Florida this weekend and remains across the area through the middle of next week. This will keep a persistent pattern in place with S/SE winds continuing across the waters, generally less than 15 knots, and keeping seas 2-3 feet. Afternoon sea breeze driven storm coverage looks to remain near to below normal for much of the period, focusing across the interior. There will also be little in the way of steering back toward the coast, which will keep potential of offshore moving storms low. However, isolated to scattered showers and storms will continue to develop over the waters, especially during the nighttime and morning hours, pushing N/NW. May see some of this activity shift onshore along the coast, south of the Cape, mainly late in the night and into the morning.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 125 AM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Lingering showers and isolated storms continue near LEE over the next hour or so, with VCTS ending around 07Z. SSE flow persists overnight at the terminals around 5 knots. Dry along the coastal terminals as the sea breeze develops and moves inland, with winds becoming more SE at 5 to 10 knots. VCSH/VCTS possible at the interior terminals after 19Z, diminishing after 01Z. SSE flow returns overnight around 5 knots at all terminals. Generally VFR through the period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 91 74 91 74 / 50 30 50 20 MCO 93 76 94 76 / 50 30 50 20 MLB 89 76 89 76 / 30 10 30 20 VRB 90 74 90 74 / 30 10 30 20 LEE 92 76 91 76 / 50 40 50 30 SFB 93 75 94 75 / 50 30 50 20 ORL 94 76 94 76 / 50 30 50 20 FPR 90 74 89 73 / 30 20 30 20

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
AM...None.