Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Taylor Creek, FL

DISCUSSION
Issued at 244 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Current-Tonight... GOES-19 PWAT imagery indicates a sharp moisture gradient across central Florida this afternoon with values ranging 2.0-2.1" from Cape Canaveral and Orlando northward and as low as 1.5" further south through Okeechobee and the Treasure Coast.
Isolated showers have developed within the deepest moisture across north-cental Florida as the east and west coast sea breezes move inland. Expect more isolated to widely scattered showers and storms near and north of a line from Melbourne to Kissimmee through the afternoon and evening, driven by increased surface heating and a few boundary interactions. A few strong storms which may develop will be capable of wind gusts 35-50 mph, frequent lighting, and locally heavy rainfall. Otherwise, hot conditions continue with highs on track to reach the mid to upper 90s across the interior, and a Heat Advisory continues through 8PM this evening for peak heat index values of 108-112F. Isolated convection along the sea breeze collision may linger into the evening, but dry conditions are expected overnight. Low temperatures should mostly range the mid to upper 70s.

Monday... Hot conditions continue as ridging holds mostly stagnant aloft. At the surface, a ridge axis shifts south of the area as a weak frontal boundary sinks into the southeast U.S. This will favor light offshore flow, turning southeast as a delayed sea breeze develops in the afternoon. Above normal temperatures persist with highs mostly in the mid to upper 90s. Peak heat index values widely ranging 106-110F will likely prompt the need for another Heat Advisory. Moisture advecting southward through the Orlando Metro should allow for isolated to scattered afternoon showers and storms (20-45%), providing some relief from the heat late in the day. A few strong storms which develop will be capable of isolated wind gusts 35-50 mph, frequent lighting, and torrential downpours. Drier air to the south should limit rain chances to less than 20% across much of Okeechobee and the Treasure Coast.

Tuesday-Saturday... High pressure in the mid levels gradually broadens through late week as troughing digs across the midwest and into the eastern U.S. The surface ridge axis remains mostly south of the area, perhaps inching northward towards Lake Okeechobee late in the period. Offshore flow should maintain hot conditions, especially through Wednesday, as highs continue in the mid 90s across the interior with localized areas reaching the upper 90s. Temperatures then show a decreasing trend, finally returning closer to normal late week. Moisture continues to advect southward into Tuesday, prompting a more seasonal pattern of scattered afternoon showers and storms (40-60%) areawide each day.

MARINE
Issued at 244 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

A surface ridge axis slides south of the local waters on Monday.
This will lead to a period of prevailing light offshore flow, shifting south to southeast late each day as the sea breeze develops. Seas of 1-2 ft build up to 3 ft offshore Tuesday.
Isolated to scattered offshore moving storms will be possible north of the Cape on Monday, while remaining mostly dry further south. Moisture continues to spread southward on Tuesday prompting higher coverage (40-60%) of offshore moving storms areawide through late week.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 145 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Mostly VFR, as rain chances remain below normal today (around 20-30%), and are limited to areas north of Okeechobee County and the Treasure Coast. Still, isolated to low end scattered showers and storms will develop, especially from KMCO/KISM to KTIX northward. Have added 3-hour PROB30 groups for TSRA impacting terminals for these northern TAF sites between 18-23Z, and a TEMPO group for TSRA at KDAB where showers are already starting to develop with the sea breeze from 18-20Z. Isolated strong storms possible, with frequent lightning, strong wind gusts and locally heavy rainfall the main impacts. Convection will diminish through the evening through 00-01Z, with dry conditions overnight.

Winds will be somewhat variable, but a general westerly flow is forecast around 5-7 knots ahead of the sea breeze. As east coast sea breeze moves inland winds pick up out of the E/SE around 8-10 knots. East coast sea breeze looks to make it as far inland as the I-4 corridor late afternoon/toward sunset, where sea breeze collision is favored.

CLIMATE
Issued at 244 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Record high temperatures at local climate sites:

Site Aug 16 Aug 17 Daytona 97 (2023) 96 (1990)
Leesburg 96 (2011) 98 (2005)
Sanford 97 (2023) 97 (2005)
Orlando 101 (1918) 99 (1929)
Melbourne 96 (2022) 97 (2022)
Vero Beach 96 (2022) 98 (2022)
Fort Pierce 97 (1948) 97 (2022)

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 77 94 78 94 / 10 50 10 60 MCO 78 97 78 96 / 30 20 20 60 MLB 78 95 78 95 / 10 10 20 60 VRB 76 95 76 94 / 0 10 20 50 LEE 78 95 79 95 / 10 30 20 60 SFB 78 95 79 95 / 20 40 20 60 ORL 79 96 80 95 / 30 20 20 60 FPR 76 95 77 94 / 0 10 20 50

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ041-044>046-053- 058-141-144-154-159-164-247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-747.

AM...None.