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AMZ610 Lake Okeechobee- 401 Pm Est Thu Dec 7 2023
Tonight..E ne winds 5 to 10 kt. Lake waters a light chop.
Fri..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Lake waters a light chop.
Fri night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Lake waters a light chop.
Sat..E se winds 5 to 10 kt. Lake waters a light chop.
Sat night..E se winds 5 to 10 kt. Lake waters a light chop.
Sun..S se winds 10 to 15 kt. Lake waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Sun night..SW winds around 10 kt becoming W nw with gusts to around 20 kt after midnight. Lake waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers and tstms in the evening.
Mon..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Lake waters a moderate chop.
Mon night..N winds around 10 kt. Lake waters a light chop.
Tue..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Lake waters a moderate chop.
Tue night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Lake waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers after midnight.

AMZ600 Synopsis For Jupiter Inlet To Ocean Reef Fl Out To 60 Nm And For East Cape Sable To Bonita Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 401 Pm Est Thu Dec 7 2023
Synopsis..
moderate northeasterly breeze expected across the local waters today. Hazardous seas will continue in the atlantic through early this evening and then subsiding tonight. Winds become more easterly for the end of the week into the first half of the weekend before becoming southerly on Sunday ahead of the next approaching cold front.
gulf stream hazards: seas 5 to 8 feet through late this afternoon.
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of dec 07, 2023 at 12 utc...
the approximate location of the gulf stream is currently unavailable.
this data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.

FXUS62 KMFL 071944 AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 244 PM EST Thu Dec 7 2023

New LONG TERM

SHORT TERM
(Rest of today through Friday)
Issued at 1208 PM EST Thu Dec 7 2023

Not much to discuss in terms of local weather impacts through the short term forecast period. An extremely dry parcel of air remains over the Southern Florida peninsula this afternoon with 850mb RHs reading less than 10% on the most recent MFL sounding. This significant dry air coupled with a lack of synoptic and even mesoscale forcing will lead to a dry remainder of today and a dry Friday to close out the week. With a return to easterly flow expected tomorrow, a few weak isolated showers will be possible for easternmost areas, but these will be extremely short-lived and weak in nature. The vast majority of the area will remain dry on Friday with only a trace of rainfall expected for areas that may experience a shower.

As high pressure propagates eastward through the day today, surface flow will veer more easterly by the evening hours today which should act to moderate the low temperatures this evening and subsequently, high temperatures for Friday as well as we lose the northerly component to the wind. Lows will generally range from the mid to upper 60s along the coasts with mid 50s for interior areas. Highs on Friday will be in the upper 70s.

LONG TERM
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 212 PM EST Thu Dec 7 2023

A mid level ridge of high pressure will continue to push eastward on Saturday as a deepening mid level trough amplifies as it moves through the Great Plains. While the mid level ridge will still remain close enough to provide mainly dry conditions to the region on Saturday, just enough moisture advection will be taking place to support an isolated shower or two over the Atlantic waters and east coast. High temperatures on Saturday will generally range from the lower 80s across the east coast metro areas to the mid 80s across interior portions of Southwest Florida.

On Sunday, the deepening mid level trough will continue to push into the Southeast and Gulf of Mexico. At the surface, a strong frontal boundary will move through the Southeast and into Northern and Central Florida as the day progresses. Out ahead of this front, winds across the region will shift to the south southwest and chances of showers and thunderstorms will gradually increase as well. Uncertainty still remains high with the exact details as the latest ensemble guidance has slowed the eastward progression of the mid level trough and surface frontal boundary. This would put the greatest chances of showers and thunderstorms later in the afternoon and into the evening hours. While the best dynamics and instability still look to remain well up to the north, the potential for a strong thunderstorm or two containing gusty winds and heavy downpours remains in place. This will continue to be monitored as the week progresses. High temperatures on Sunday will rise into the lower 80s across the east coast metro areas to the mid 80s across interior portions of Southwest Florida.

With the guidance favoring a slower motion of the frontal boundary, the actual passage of the front looks to be during the overnight and early morning hours of Monday before potentially stalling out over the Florida Straits. Cold air advection looks to be limited across South Florida as winds quickly veer to more of a north northeast direction Monday into Tuesday with high pressure building in from the north. Uncertainty in the forecast remains high during the early to middle portion of next week due to guidance remaining in disagreement in regards to the strength of the high building in from the north. A stronger high pressure would build further south possibly allowing for some drier air to build in during this time frame. A weaker area of high pressure would keep the stalled frontal boundary to the south closer to the region, keeping moisture values higher along with the chances of showers. The latest forecast takes a blend of the models gradually increasing the shower chances on Tuesday and Wednesday. High temperatures on Monday look to range from the upper 60s west of Lake Okeechobee to the lower 70s across the east coast. With the winds becoming northeasterly, a gradual moderating trend will take place for Tuesday and Wednesday.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1208 PM EST Thu Dec 7 2023

VFR prevails at all terminals through the period. Surface flow will slowly turn more Northeast over the next couple of hours.
Dry conditions and winds 10-15kts are expected through the remainder of the day.

MARINE
Issued at 1208 PM EST Thu Dec 7 2023

Hazardous marine conditions today will gradually subside as winds reduce and turn out of the northeast with time. Despite this decrease in wind intensity, hazardous marine conditions may linger over the Atlantic waters this morning, with wave heights ranging from 5 to 8 feet. Winds will continue to shift from the east by Friday and southeast by the weekend. Thunderstorms cannot be ruled out later in the weekend ahead of an approaching cold front.

BEACHES
Issued at 1208 PM EST Thu Dec 7 2023

A high risk for rip currents will be maintained through at least the end of the week. This elevated threat may persist into the weekend as winds retain their onshore component.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Miami 67 78 71 81 / 0 0 10 0 West Kendall 63 79 67 82 / 0 0 0 0 Opa-Locka 65 79 69 82 / 0 0 10 0 Homestead 66 79 70 82 / 10 0 0 0 Fort Lauderdale 67 78 71 81 / 0 10 10 0 N Ft Lauderdale 67 78 71 81 / 0 10 10 0 Pembroke Pines 65 79 68 82 / 0 0 10 0 West Palm Beach 64 77 68 80 / 0 10 20 10 Boca Raton 66 79 70 82 / 10 10 20 10 Naples 60 79 65 82 / 0 0 0 0

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday evening for FLZ168-172- 173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for AMZ650-651- 670-671.

GM...None.

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North Fork
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:55 AM EST     0.55 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:49 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:33 AM EST     1.03 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:57 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 01:18 PM EST     0.70 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:56 PM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 05:27 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 06:40 PM EST     1.05 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

North Fork, St. Lucie River, Florida, Tide feet

South Fork
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:59 AM EST     0.55 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:49 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:37 AM EST     0.98 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:57 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 01:22 PM EST     0.70 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:56 PM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 05:27 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 06:44 PM EST     1.00 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

South Fork, St. Lucie River, Florida, Tide feet

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