Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Buckhead Ridge, FL

SHORT TERM
(Rest of today through Monday)
Issued at 1223 PM EDT Sun May 11 2025

Changes in the weather pattern are underway as a rather strong mid level low meanders over the Lower Mississippi Valley through the rest of today before slowly starting to move northeastward on Monday. The surface area of low pressure will also remain nearly stationary across the Lower Mississippi Valley today before slowly moving to the northeast on Monday. The cold front associated with this system extends into the eastern Gulf and will slowly push towards the Florida Peninsula tonight before crawling across the area throughout the day on Monday. Out ahead of this boundary, deep layer moisture advection will take place as PWAT values gradually rise up to around 1.8 inches across Southwest Florida this afternoon and then eventually over 2 inches across the the entire region later tonight and heading into Monday. While there will be sufficient moisture this afternoon for convection to develop, it will be mainly sea breeze driven and scattered in nature, concentrated over the Lake Okeechobee region and Southwest Florida. Some of the storms this afternoon could become strong containing gusty winds and frequent lightning.

As deep layer moisture advection increases tonight, shower and thunderstorm activity will become numerous to widespread during the late evening hours across Southwest Florida, and then eventually pushing eastward across rest of the region overnight. This moisture surge out ahead of the slow moving frontal boundary will also continue to cause numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms throughout the day on Monday and into Monday night. Periods of heavy downpours during this time frame will also create the potential for localized flooding due to multiple rounds of heavy rainfall moving over the same areas. With this type of scenario, QPF amounts remain very uncertain and will depend on exactly where the training of the heavier downpours occur on Monday and Monday night. The most likely scenario in this set up is a general 1-3 inches of rain through early Tuesday morning, however the high end amount (1 in 10 chance)
could end up being a localized 4 to 6 inches and the highest potential for this would be somewhere along the east coast. This would be due to the potential for some coastal convergence to develop which would increase the rainfall efficiency in the stronger storms.

In regards to thunderstorm development, the environment will be capable of producing some strong to marginally severe thunderstorms out ahead of this system on Monday. With a jet streak passing nearby in the upper levels combined with roughly a 30 kt lower level jet at 850mb as well as increasing shear values, this sets the stage for the strongest storms to have the capability of producing strong gusty winds and maybe an isolated tornado. Because of this, SPC continues to keep a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms (Level 1 of 5) over all of South Florida on Monday and Monday night.

With the increased amount of cloud cover, high temperatures on Monday will rise into the lower to mid 80s along and north of Alligator alley, with mid to upper 80s possible south of Alligator Alley where more peaks of sun may occur.

LONG TERM
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 309 PM EDT Sun May 11 2025

Widespread rain, and the potential for strong thunderstorms, will continue late Monday into Tuesday morning across all of South Florida. With the slow drift and departure of the frontal boundary, this will keep enough deep moisture across the eastern half of the region and the Atlantic metro areas into Tuesday afternoon/evening.
Rounds of heavy showers over the same location may result in localized flooding, either by slow-moving cells or by training, with most of the heaviest rain concentrating around the Atlantic metro areas, while a drying trend begins over the western/Gulf areas by mid-day. With a slow drag into the Atlantic, there is potential for an increase in QPF, and prolonging, rainfall at locations along the east coast on Tuesday. In the latest WPC forecast, there is potential for 1-2" of rain over the Atlantic on Tuesday; therefore, any lingering showers, or slower drift, could bring more to the metro after a very active evening and plentiful rainfall.

For the latter half of the week, the western Atlantic high pressure begins to expand back into the state, with a mid-level ridging building over the southeastern CONUS. This will escort drier air into the region, as the plume of moisture leaves the region, bringing a break after the active wet weather. With stable weather and plentiful sunshine, South Florida is on its way for warm and humid days. Temperatures will be on a rapid rise to above seasonal normals. To wrap up the week, afternoon highs will be upper 80s to low 90s with potential for maximum temperatures to reach the mid to upper 90s by Saturday and Sunday.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 718 PM EDT Sun May 11 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the rest of the evening hours. SE winds will continue at 10-15 kts through tonight and Monday. Showers and thunderstorms will gradually become more numerous to widespread at KAPF later this evening and then eventually they will spread to the east coast terminals during the later overnight hours. This could lead to periods of MVFR or IFR especially during the late overnight hours into Monday as well as through most of Monday.

MARINE
Issued at 1223 PM EDT Sun May 11 2025

A moderate to fresh southeasterly wind flow will continue across most of the local waters through Monday. These winds will gradually shift and diminsh as they become more southwesterly on Tuesday. Seas across the Gulf waters will remain at 2 to 4 feet through tonight before becoming 2 feet or less on Monday. Seas across the Atlantic waters will range between 2 to 4 feet through Monday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop this afternoon mainly over the Gulf waters as well as Lake Okeechobee. Shower and thunderstorm activity will become numerous to widespread across all local waters during the overnight hours through Monday and Monday night.

BEACHES
Issued at 1223 PM EDT Sun May 11 2025

With a persistent onshore flow, a high risk of rip currents will continue across the Atlantic Coast beaches through Monday. This risk of rip currents may remain elevated through the middle of the week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Miami 77 84 74 85 / 70 90 90 70 West Kendall 75 86 72 88 / 70 90 90 70 Opa-Locka 76 86 74 88 / 70 90 90 70 Homestead 76 86 74 86 / 70 90 90 70 Fort Lauderdale 76 83 73 84 / 70 90 90 70 N Ft Lauderdale 75 84 72 85 / 70 90 90 70 Pembroke Pines 77 87 75 90 / 70 90 90 70 West Palm Beach 74 83 71 85 / 70 90 90 70 Boca Raton 74 85 71 87 / 70 90 90 70 Naples 73 85 73 85 / 80 90 60 20

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...Flood Watch from Monday morning through Tuesday morning for FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174.

High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...None.
GM...None.