Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Stuart, FL

DISCUSSION
Issued at 215 AM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Today-Tonight...Ridging both aloft and at the surface will help limit shower and storm chances across east central Florida today, along with a drier air mass that has built across the peninsula.
Mostly dry conditions are anticipated across east central Florida today as a result of this set-up, but some isolated activity still cannot be fully ruled out along the east coast sea breeze and the eventual sea breeze collision in the late afternoon and evening hours. Some of the CAM guidance does show this, but confidence remains low, so only have a 20 to 30 percent chance for showers and storms in the forecast across the interior. If any storms were to develop, the main threats would include frequent lightning strikes, wind gusts to 50 mph, and brief downpours. Any activity that manages to develop would diminish into the overnight hours, with dry weather anticipated tonight.

With the lower rain chances and the drier air present, heat remains a concern for east central Florida. Highs in the low to mid 90s are forecast, with the warmest temperatures focused across the interior.
While the drier air will help limit humidity slightly, it may still feel muggy at times. Peak heat indices are forecast to range from 100 to 105, and a Moderate to Major HeatRisk is anticipated. Staying well-hydrated and taking breaks in the shade or in an air conditioned building are strongly encouraged if spending extended periods of time outdoors. Those particularly sensitive to the heat or those not acclimated to Florida heat may be at a higher risk of heat-related stress and illness. Conditions overnight remain warm and muggy, with lows in the low to mid 70s.

Wednesday-Monday...Mid-level ridging remains over the Florida peninsula through Thursday, erodes into Friday, and is replaced by a stronger mid-level ridge over the weekend and into early next week.
At the surface, the Atlantic high remains generally in place, with the ridge axis slowly drifting northward through the period. Pockets of dry air continue to move towards the area through a majority of the period, keeping rain and storm chances generally between 40 to 50 percent, and slightly lower along the coast. The exception to this occurs on Friday as increasing moisture locally is anticipated as the mid-level ridge erodes, with a return of 50 to 70 percent rain and storm chances. Rain and storm chances diminish during the overnight hours, with some isolated activity possible across the local Atlantic waters.

Hot conditions are forecast to continue across east central Florida, with highs in the low to mid 90s each afternoon and peak heat indices reaching 100 to 105. While these heat indices continue to remain below Heat Advisory criteria, a Moderate to Major HeatRisk is forecast to persist across east central Florida. Adequate cooling and hydration will be key in avoiding any heat stress for residents and visitors alike if spending extended periods of time outdoors.
Lows remain consistent through the period in the low to mid 70s.

MARINE
Issued at 215 AM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025

An area of high pressure will remain in place across the local Atlantic waters, with the ridge axis forecast to slowly drift northward through the period. This will result in south to southeasterly winds becoming more easterly into early next week.
Wind speeds remain fairly consistent at 5 to 10 knots overnight into the early morning hours and 10 to 15 knots each afternoon after the development of the east coast sea breeze. Seas are forecast to remain between 2 to 3 feet. While conditions across the local waters are anticipated to remain fairly dry through the next few days, isolated to scattered shower and storm activity cannot be ruled out.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 140 AM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025

VFR to persist thru much of the TAF period. Light SSE winds will continue thru 14z (variable at times) before gradually becoming ESE as the sea breeze develops after 16z-18z. Gusts around 20-25 kt are possible, especially at coastal terminals. VCTS was preserved for inland terminals after 20z, only slightly delayed by ~1 hr. Confidence remains too low at this time for TEMPOs.
Gradual clearing is forecast after 03z Wed. with light/variable wind.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 91 74 91 74 / 20 10 30 10 MCO 95 76 94 75 / 30 20 40 10 MLB 90 76 89 76 / 20 10 20 10 VRB 91 74 91 74 / 20 10 20 10 LEE 93 76 94 76 / 30 30 40 20 SFB 95 76 94 75 / 20 20 30 10 ORL 95 76 94 76 / 30 20 40 10 FPR 90 73 89 73 / 20 10 30 10

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
AM...None.