Friday, September25, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Sewall's Point, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:10AMSunset 7:14PM Friday September 25, 2020 9:11 AM EDT (13:11 UTC) Moonrise 2:41PMMoonset 12:21AM Illumination 58% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ555 SEbastian Inlet To Jupiter Inlet 0-20 Nm- 416 Am Edt Fri Sep 25 2020
Today..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with a dominant period 11 seconds. A moderate chop on the intracoastal waters. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers likely and chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Tonight..South winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 feet with a dominant period 10 seconds. Choppy on the intracoastal waters. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Saturday..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period 9 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..Southeast winds 5 knots becoming southwest after midnight. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Smooth on the intracoastal waters. Chance of showers.
Sunday..Northeast winds 5 knots becoming east in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 feet. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
AMZ500 Synopsis For Flagler Beach To Jupiter Inlet Out To 60 Nm- 416 Am Edt Fri Sep 25 2020
Synopsis..A high pressure ridge offshore of the southeast u.s. Will retreat eastward through this weekend, allowing winds to shift to south today, then slacken and become southwest this weekend. Expect improving boating conditions trough this weekend and early next week, except for a higher coverage of showers and storms.
Gulf stream hazards..SEas up to 6 feet this morning well offshore from cape canaveral southward this morning, diminishing this afternoon. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Friday, september 25th. 49 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 38 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 34 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 28 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 22 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sewall's Point, FL
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location: 27.21, -80.18     debug


Area Discussion for - Melbourne, FL
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FXUS62 KMLB 250829 AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 430 AM EDT Fri Sep 25 2020

DISCUSSION.

Current . Western Atlantic high pressure ridge continues to slide farther away from the SE US coast, while the weakening remnants of post-T.C. "Beta" move NE over the southern Appalachians. Low level flow between these two features continues to veer to an increasing southerly component. GOES IR imagery showed skies partly clouds to mostly clear in some areas. KMLB 88D shows spotty showers near the Florida east coast, with scattered showers increasing in coverage and intensity offshore, portending a more convectively active day ahead. 07Z/3AM temps were mainly in the M-U70s, with a few spots in the L70s.

Today-tonight . Southerly low to mid level flow will advect deeper moisture northward across the CWA throughout the day, with higher shower/storm chances indicated, compared to the last several days. One change in the model guidance is that the higher PWAT air has shifted east/offshore compared to what had been advertised the past few days. This has caused both POPs and QPF to trend slightly lower (50-70 pct, rather than 70-80) with overall QPF also a bit less. As such, have followed the guidance toward this end. SSW to SW steering flow will push activity back toward the east coast late in the day, with a few showers/storms possibly lingering past sunset by an hour or two.

Max temps in the U80s along the coast, and near 90F inland. Mins tonight in the L-M70s.

Saturday . Mid-level ridge builds in across the SE U.S. and eastern seaboard behind a shortwave trough that moves offshore the U.S. east coast. At the surface, a weak low/inverted trough sets up along the coast of the Carolinas with what is left of "Beta". Here locally, light W/NW flow in the low levels develops and may delay the sea breeze slightly, but winds will eventually flop around to easterly during the afternoon. The deep moisture working into east central Florida today will shift to our east, and forecast soundings are showing the influence of the previously mentioned mid-level ridge with some drying and weak subsidence aloft, moreso Orlando northward. Therefore, lower coverage of afternoon/early evening showers and storms is expected but still in the scattered range. PoPs will range from 20% northern Lake and Volusia to 40% across the Treasure Coast and Okeechobee where the higher moisture is forecast.

Max temps around 90 at the coast and lower 90s inland.

Sunday . Another shortwave crossing the southern U.S. will start to nudge the mid-level ridge eastward while the inverted trough at the surface lifts northward. Low-level winds become more onshore allowing faster inland progression of the east coast breeze. This will carry higher rain chances away from the coast pretty readily and toward the interior with models suggesting sea breeze collision near or just to the west of Lake county. Similar moisture values to those of Saturday, but lesser influence of the ridging aloft as the axis shifts eastward should yield slightly higher coverage than that of Saturday. PoPs will range from 20-30% along the coast increasing to 40% inland (except 50% for Lake county). Since we'll have some dry air in the mid-levels to work with and slightly cooler temps aloft, a few storms could produce some wind gusts on the stronger side.

Similar temps with max temps around 90 at the coast and lower 90s inland.

Monday . Aforementioned shortwave is forecast to move NE up the U.S. east coast forcing high pressure farther seaward while another trough digs into the center CONUS. A very moist southerly flow develops across Florida in between these two systems giving us a higher coverage of afternoon lightning storms along the sea breezes, further aided by some upper-level support. Highest coverage expected across the interior where more boundaries will interact, especially toward the I-4 corridor northward where precipitable water is forecast to climb over 2 inches once again. Some W/SW steering flow may bring some showers and storms back toward the east coast late in the day, mainly north of Melbourne.

Tuesday-Thursday . Global models still teasing an early season cool front with the GFS continuing as the faster solution compared to the ECMWF although both are trending slower. Today's 00Z GFS has trended slower with the (potential) frontal passage by about 24 hours (now Tuesday night-Weds. morning) with the 00Z run of the ECMWF now toward the very end of the forecast period as it shows the ridge restrengthening in the Tuesday-Wednesday time frame. Forecast during this period remains of low confidence especially since the models are pushing the FROPA back with each successive run, but is still leaning toward the ECWMF based on climatology of a FROPA, or lack thereof, this early in the season.

With the forecast favoring the ECWMF, PoPs have undercut the GFS MOS guidance on Tues. but have gone above the GFS MOS Weds. and Thurs. However, with confidence on the lower side and knowing the forecast will undoubtedly change, rain chances are no higher than 40 to 50% during this period.

AVIATION. VFR through 15Z-16Z, followed by diurnal convective development. TS coverage should be highest near the SE aerodromes with an earlier onset time. 2-3hr TEMPO groups will start 17Z for SUA trending later farther north and inland. MVFR to IFR CIGs/VSBYs beneath precip cores, with local gusts to 30kt possible.

MARINE. Today-tonight . Southeast flow 10-15kt will slacken later today/tonight as it veers to S-SSW. Moderate swells continue to decay, however buoy data and wave model guidance indicate seas around 6ft lingering for a few more hrs out toward 60NM south of Cape Canaveral. Seas slacken to 3-5ft late today and 2-4ft tonight. Cautionary Statement for the Space/Treasure Coast offshore legs will be able to be dropped later this morning.

Saturday-Tuesday . Generally favorable boating conditions with seas of 2 to 3 ft and occasionally up to 4 ft beyond 20 nm offshore. Winds at or below 10 kt over the weekend will become S/SE 10 to 15 kt early next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. DAB 87 74 90 74 / 50 20 20 10 MCO 89 75 93 75 / 60 20 40 10 MLB 86 76 90 75 / 70 30 40 20 VRB 87 74 90 73 / 70 40 40 20 LEE 90 75 93 75 / 60 20 30 10 SFB 90 74 92 75 / 60 20 30 10 ORL 89 75 93 76 / 60 20 40 10 FPR 87 75 91 73 / 70 40 40 20

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . None. AM . None.

SHORT TERM . Cristaldi LONG TERM . Combs AVIATION . Cristaldi


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41114 - Fort Pierce, FL (134) 24 mi46 min 83°F4 ft
LKWF1 - 8722670 - Lake Worth, FL 42 mi54 min SSW 4.1 G 6 82°F 83°F1013.8 hPa76°F
SIPF1 47 mi42 min 80°F 83°F1016 hPa
SPGF1 - Settlement Point, GBI 72 mi72 min S 9.9 G 13 82°F 1015 hPa (+1.4)

Wind History for Lake Worth Pier, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Witham Field Airport, FL3 mi25 minN 07.00 miPartly Cloudy81°F75°F84%1015.6 hPa
Fort Pierce, St. Lucie County International Airport, FL22 mi19 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy81°F79°F94%1015.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSUA

Wind History from SUA (wind in knots)
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E9E7E8E3CalmCalmCalmCalmS4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
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Tide / Current Tables for Seminole Shores, Florida (2)
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Seminole Shores
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:21 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 02:54 AM EDT     3.31 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:10 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:22 AM EDT     0.67 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:40 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 03:49 PM EDT     3.51 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:12 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:07 PM EDT     1.06 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.22.83.23.33.12.72.11.510.70.71.11.72.433.43.53.32.82.31.71.21.11.2

Tide / Current Tables for Eden, Nettles Island, Indian River, Florida
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Eden
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:03 AM EDT     0.75 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 01:21 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 06:28 AM EDT     1.17 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:11 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 01:28 PM EDT     0.48 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:41 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 07:13 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 07:23 PM EDT     1.24 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.80.70.80.911.11.21.21.110.80.70.60.50.50.60.811.11.21.21.21.11

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Melbourne, FL
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