Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for North River Shores, FL

UPDATE
Issued at 833 AM EDT Wed May 14 2025

Quiet this morning with 8 AM temperatures observed in the upper 60s and low 70s. Dry air and poor lapse rates above 850 mb should limit any mentionable shower chances today. High temperatures reach the mid 80s along the coast while climbing into the upper 80s west of I-95. The current forecast remains on track.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
Issued at 316 AM EDT Wed May 14 2025

Today-Friday...Pretty straightforward forecast for the rest of the week (and next week, we'll get to that): mostly dry and very warm. Troughing aloft associated with the mid-level low responsible for last week's active weather pattern departs, as a high pressure ridge builds over the Gulf and Florida. Weak high pressure at the surface produces gentle southwesterly to westerly flow, which combined with subsidence from the high pressure aloft, will result in increasingly warm afternoons as high temperatures in the M-U80s (Heat Index U80-L90s) today increase to the L-M90s (Heat Index L-M90s) by Friday. This includes the coastal corridor as offshore flow slows development of the east coast sea breeze, only allowing it to move inland and offer a small reprieve later in the afternoon. Coverage of Moderate HeatRisk impacts increase through the period. It's worth noting HeatRisk takes into account the time of year, so while these temperatures and Heat Indices aren't unusual for our summer, they're well above normal for mid May. As far as rain chances go, while mostly dry conditions are advertised, can't rule out a few showers today and Thursday if a pocket of higher moisture finds some lift.

Saturday-Tuesday...The mid-level ridge settles over the Gulf and Florida through at least the first half of the week, and with weak high pressure at the surface, mostly dry and increasingly hot conditions continue. Gentle but persistent southwesterly to westerly flow and increasing subsidence from the high pressure areas further push afternoon highs into the L-M90s, well above normal for the time of year and close to some daily high temperature records. This includes the coastal corridor as flow continues to slow or pin the sea breeze. Heat Index values reach around 100 by Saturday, and continue to creep up going into next week. As a result, widespread Moderate HeatRisk impacts are expected through the period, and Major impacts become possible in the Orlando Metro Area Monday and Tuesday. No mentionable rain chances at this time.

MARINE
Issued at 316 AM EDT Wed May 14 2025

Today-Sunday...Generally favorable boating conditions as high pressure becomes anchored over Florida and the local Atlantic waters. Winds could become squirrelly at times as the center/ridge of high pressure moves over the area, especially in the mornings, but for the most part winds W-SW at 5-10 kts in the mornings shift to the ESE-SE at 10-15 kts in the afternoons and evenings with the sea breeze, then swing back to the W-SW at 5-10 kts in the overnights. Seas 1-3 ft. Can't rule out an isolated shower, but otherwise dry conditions.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 700 AM EDT Wed May 14 2025

VFR conds are forecast through the TAF period. Light offshore (SW-NW) flow less than 10 knots this morning will turn onshore (NE-E) at 10-12 knots at coastal terminals btwn 16Z-18Z which will gradually veer SE through 00Z. A light SW-W flow will return after sunset. Very isolated SHRA possible btwn DAB-ISM aft 18Z but coverage/confidence too low to include in TAFs.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 87 67 91 67 / 10 10 0 0 MCO 88 69 92 69 / 10 10 0 0 MLB 86 69 88 70 / 10 10 0 0 VRB 86 69 89 69 / 0 0 0 0 LEE 89 69 92 69 / 10 0 0 0 SFB 89 68 93 69 / 10 10 0 0 ORL 89 70 93 70 / 10 10 0 0 FPR 86 67 89 69 / 0 0 0 0

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
AM...None.