Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for North River Shores, FL

DISCUSSION
Issued at 317 PM EDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Rest of Today-Tonight...Windy, dry, and warming up. A tightening pressure gradient across Florida between elongated high pressure off the southeast seaboard and enhancement from the sea breeze is producing wind gusts of 25-30 mph, a bit higher than previously forecast. This is in line with LAMP guidance, so have bumped up forecast winds to match. Expect gusty conditions to continue through around 6 PM, then settle as down fairly quickly in the late evening as we lose daytime heating, and subsequently the sea breeze and mixing. Onshore flow continues to mitigate very dry conditions from persistent high pressure, but still expect low humidity which combined with the winds will continue sensitive to near-critical fire weather conditions, especially across the western interior. Temperatures remain around normal along the coast in onshore flow, but inland are starting to creep up above normal as subsidence from high pressure aloft increases. A few sprinkles had managed to develop over the Atlantic waters of the Treasure Coast thanks to a slug of slightly higher moisture, but this feature has pushed well west and judging by the anemic cloud field even over the waters, has taken any chance of water falling from the sky with it, so only the silent 10 pct rain chance in the forecast.

Sunday-Next Week...(Modified Previous Discussion) High pressure continues over the western Atlantic through at least mid-week, while slowly drifting towards the Florida peninsula. Dry conditions persist, as do fire weather concerns. Daily sea breezes will enhance onshore flow in the afternoons. However, by Tuesday, even onshore flow will struggle to provide relief from increasing temperatures as high pressure builds aloft. Heat looks to become an increasing concern, as temperatures become above normal. Highs are forecast to reach the upper 80s west of Orlando by Sunday.
Then, lower 90s are expected early next week for most of the interior, with mid-80s along the coast. A few record highs could be threatened, especially Tuesday and Wednesday. Overnight lows in the 60s.

By late week, the ridge manages to repel any frontal passages.
However, it is forecast to be weakened by a passing upper level shortwave mid-week, shifting the surface high northeastward away from the local area. Generally dry conditions persist, though a slight chance (~20%) for showers returns to the forecast late week into the weekend along and offshore from the Treasure Coast, with the ridge axis once again north of the area. Hot afternoon highs in the mid-80s to lower 90s are expected to continue into next weekend.

MARINE
Issued at 317 PM EDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Elongated high pressure off the southeastern seaboard gradually weakens as the center shifts towards the area Monday, then pushes offshore Tuesday reinforcing broad high pressure across the Atlantic basin, which becomes the primary driver of marine conditions the second half of the week. The ridge axis of these high pressure areas remain generally north of the local Atlantic waters, continuing easterly to southeasterly flow through the weekend and next week. Poor boating conditions in the Gulf Stream waters off the Treasure Coast from fresh easterly winds and choppy seas continue through early Sunday, and small craft should continue to exercise caution. Winds then ease becoming moderate to gentle as the pressure gradient loosens from the weakening/ departing high pressure. Seas 3-5 ft subside a bit after Sunday to 2-4 ft, but could remain choppy especially in the Gulf Stream.
Some brief sprinkles are possible, but otherwise generally dry conditions continue.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 120 PM EDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Continued mainly VFR through the period. ERLY winds 13-20 kts with frequent higher gusts gradually become light again thru this evening, but may stay elevated along the Space & Treasure coasts (~ 10 kts) overnight. Mainly dry, but perhaps a few sprinkles along the Treasure Coast. Winds on Easter Sun, ESE/SE 13-20 kts again and gusty with persistent pattern continuing.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 317 PM EDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Rest of Today...Near Red Flag conditions over the interior, especially Lake County this afternoon as onshore winds did indeed over perform, coming in at 15-20 mph with gusts to 25-30 mph, and RHs drop to 35-45%. A few spots may briefly reach Red Flag criteria in the next couple hours, from 3 PM to 5 PM, then conditions improve as RH recover.

Sunday Onward...Southeast winds relax slightly, but remain 10-15 mph, with gusts up to 20 mph in the afternoon. Min RH continues between 35-45% over the interior counties and 45-55% for coastal areas. Very Good to Excellent dispersion each day. Very similar conditions look to continue through early next week, with increasing heat concerns.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 63 82 65 83 / 0 0 0 0 MCO 64 86 65 88 / 0 0 0 0 MLB 68 81 67 82 / 0 0 0 0 VRB 66 82 66 82 / 0 0 0 0 LEE 63 88 65 89 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 62 86 64 88 / 0 0 0 0 ORL 64 86 66 88 / 0 0 0 0 FPR 66 82 66 82 / 0 0 0 0

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
AM...None.