Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for St. Lucie Village, FL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
Issued at 231 AM EDT Sat Jun 21 2025

Today-Tonight... Mid-level high pressure across the Gulf States, with the axis extending over the Florida peninsula, will slide north and eastward into the Tennessee Valley by tonight. Surface high pressure in the western Atlantic will slowly shift westward towards the Carolina coast through the day. Locally, southeast winds will dominate today, becoming breezy/gusty at times in the afternoon, especially along the coast where models are showing gusts of 20-25 mph will be possible. The east coast sea breeze will form once again this afternoon and push quickly across the local area due to the stronger onshore flow.

Scattered showers and storms will develop along the sea breeze as it pushes inland, bringing a low to medium (20-40 percent) chance of rain and storms across east central Florida this afternoon. The CAMs show activity will initiate along the coast along sea breeze by late morning/early afternoon, especially across the Treasure Coast, with additional storms forming across the interior into early/mid afternoon along boundary/sea breeze interactions. Because of this, the greatest coverage of storms across east central Florida will be across the western interior this afternoon. However, much like yesterday, the overall greatest coverage of storms will be across west Florida where the west/east coast sea breeze collision and additional boundary interactions are forecast to occur. Forecast soundings support our rain and storm chances by showing adequate low level moisture (PW values 1.4-1.9"), sufficient instability (MUCAPE ~2000+ J/kg), and drier air in the mid level with a DCAPE ~700-900 J/kg. However, the shear does not look impressive (~9kt from SFC-2km). Because of this, the main storm hazards today will be occasional to frequent lightning, gusty winds of 35-50 mph, and locally heavy downpours.

Hot and humid conditions will persist today, with afternoon highs in the upper 80s to low 90s along the coast, and low to mid 90s across the interior. These temperatures coupled with humidity will produce peak heat indices of 98-103 degrees. Any lingering storm activity across the local area will push into west Florida into the evening, leaving east central Florida mostly dry overnight. Warm and muggy conditions are forecast tonight, with lows in the low to mid 70s.

Sunday-Sunday night...High pressure across the Tennessee Valley will steadily shift eastward through the day, reaching the VA/NC coast by Sunday night. At the surface, high pressure off the Carolina coast will slowly shift southward, with the axis remaining over the Florida peninsula. Locally, easterly flow will dominate, leading to winds becoming breezy at times especially along the coast with gusts of 20-25 mph possible in the afternoon. Models indicate that the east coast sea breeze will form once again in the afternoon, and quickly push westward across the local area. There is a medium (50-60 percent) chance of rain and storms across east central Florida in the afternoon and evening, with the greatest potential for storms occurring along and south of a line from Lake Kissimmee to Fort Pierce. Due to the persistent onshore flow and the quick inland moving sea breeze, the greatest coverage of storms overall will occur across west Florida, where additional storms will form and the west/east coast sea breeze collision is forecast to occur.
Any lingering activity across ECFL will push into west Florida into the evening, leaving mostly dry conditions overnight.

Hot and humid conditions will persist with afternoon highs in the upper 80s to low 90s across the coast, and low to mid 90s inland.
These hot temperatures coupled with elevated humidity will produce peak heat indices of 98-103 degrees. Warm and muggy conditions are forecast overnight, with lows in the low to mid 90s.

Monday-Friday... Mid level high pressure centered over VA/NC will slowly shift south and westward through the period, becoming centered across GA/AL, with the axis remaining over the Florida peninsula through the time period. At the surface, high pressure just off the coast of GA/SC, extending across central Florida, on Monday will remain in place as the Bermuda High strengthens and builds westward across the Florida peninsula into mid to late week.
Locally, hot conditions will persist, with afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s west of I-95 (with more locations reaching mid 90s by mid week), and in the upper 80s to low 90s across the coastal communities thanks to the persistent onshore flow and the east coast sea breeze. Winds will generally be around 10 mph across the interior, with coastal communities increasing to 10-15 mph with gusts 20-25 mph in the afternoon each day behind the east coast sea breeze.

Drier air is forecast to filter across east central Florida, which will allow humidity levels to slightly decrease. This will result in slightly lower peak heat indices of 98-103F, but reaching back in the mid-100s by late week. Due to this drier air, overall rain chances will be average to below normal for this time of year.
However, any showers and storms that do develop will push westward quickly with the onshore flow and the east coast sea breeze, again favoring the west coast of Florida for the greatest potential for additional storm development and the east/west coast sea breeze collision. Any lingering activity across east central Florida will push into west Florida into the evening, leaving mostly dry conditions overnight. Warm and muggy conditions will persist into the overnight, with lows in the low to mid 70s.

MARINE
Issued at 231 AM EDT Sat Jun 21 2025

Today-Wednesday... Generally favorable boating conditions are forecast through the period. Southeast winds today will shift easterly from Sunday into next week as high pressure builds across the local waters. The east coast sea breeze is forecast to form each afternoon, increasing winds to around 15 KT (up to 20 KT possible on the Intracoastal). Isolated to scattered showers and storms will remain possible across the Atlantic waters each day in the onshore flow, with the greatest coverage occurring across the Florida peninsula. Seas 1-3ft.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 655 AM EDT Sat Jun 21 2025

VFR conditions prevail outside of convection. Light SE/S (or variable) morning wind flow will become ESE/SE with sea breeze formation at the coast and push inland during the afternoon and early evening. Speeds increasing to 5-10 kts, except 10-15 kts with sea breeze passage. Could see some early morning convection along the Treasure Coast, with ISOLD-WDLY SCT showers/storms along the sea breeze early-mid afternoon becoming more SCT into late afternoon/early evening into the interior. Storm steering flow will be generally ERLY and slow, but could see erratic movement surrounding larger late day boundary collisions. Some "Vicinity" wording already in place for TAF sites; TEMPO to follow later as confidence increases.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 90 74 89 75 / 30 10 40 10 MCO 92 75 92 75 / 40 10 50 10 MLB 88 77 88 78 / 30 10 50 20 VRB 89 75 90 75 / 30 20 50 20 LEE 93 75 92 75 / 40 10 50 10 SFB 93 75 92 75 / 30 10 50 10 ORL 92 76 92 76 / 40 10 50 10 FPR 89 75 89 75 / 30 20 60 20

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
AM...None.