LONG TERM
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 218 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024

Key Messages:

- Marginal risk of excessive rainfall through Sunday.

- Minor to moderate risk of heat related impacts next week.

One last day of heavy rainfall is in store on Sunday as an upper level trough continues to influence the region. Deep tropical moisture will promote periods of potentially heavy rainfall at times. WPC maintains a Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall, generally east of I-35, on Sunday. Soils will be very saturated by Sunday so it won't take much to see flooding develop.

Upper level troughing will lift off towards the Midwest early next week as ridging builds in across the Southern Plains. Rain chances quickly drop off on Monday as subsidence takes control of the region and drier air moves in. With that said, we do have some low-end PoPs in on Tuesday afternoon as a weak disturbances rotates around the ridge.

High temps daily will top out in the low 90s to around 100 degrees.
This will lead to heat indices generally in the 105-109 range with a few spots briefly reach 110 at times through the week. The majority of the region will be under a moderate risk of heat-related impacts through next week.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 606 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024

Borderline VFR-MVFR conditions are expected for this evening across the eastern sites before dropping to MVFR around 08/09z.
Across the western sites, VFR conditions are expected throughout this TAF cycle. Rain wise, light showers will continue across the eastern sites for the next few hours before the increasing once again tomorrow morning with the chance for thunderstorms. Due to uncertainty on where the thunderstorms may setup, went with tempos at this time.

MARINE
Issued at 218 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024

A generally weak to moderate onshore flow is expected through the weekend, with brief moderate winds south of Port Aransas each afternoon next week. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms expected this weekend with drier conditions next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Corpus Christi 86 75 86 77 / 50 70 60 60 Victoria 86 72 83 75 / 50 60 80 50 Laredo 92 74 91 75 / 30 30 40 30 Alice 88 73 88 75 / 60 60 70 50 Rockport 88 75 88 78 / 50 70 60 60 Cotulla 92 74 91 76 / 20 10 50 30 Kingsville 87 74 88 76 / 50 60 80 50 Navy Corpus 86 77 86 79 / 50 70 60 60

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...Flood Watch through Saturday evening for TXZ234-243>247-343>347- 443-447.

GM...None.