Sunrise 6:37 AM   Sunset 8:30 PM Moonrise 3:13 AM   Moonset 5:48 PM

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GMZ250 Coastal Waters From Baffin Bay To Port Aransas Out 20 Nm- 1033 Pm Cdt Tue Jul 2 2024
Rest of tonight - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: southeast 2 feet at 5 seconds. Wednesday - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: southeast 2 feet at 6 seconds. Wednesday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: southeast 3 feet at 5 seconds. Thursday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas around 3 feet. Wave detail: southeast 3 feet at 5 seconds. Thursday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Wave detail: southeast 4 feet at 5 seconds. Friday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: southeast 3 feet at 5 seconds. Friday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming south 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Saturday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming east in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Saturday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet, occasionally to 8 feet. Sunday - East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 6 to 7 feet, occasionally to 9 feet. A chance of showers. Sunday night - Southeast winds around 15 knots. Seas 5 to 8 feet, occasionally to 10 feet, building to 7 to 10 feet, occasionally to 13 feet after midnight. A chance of showers.

GMZ200 1033 Pm Cdt Tue Jul 2 2024
Synopsis for the middle texas coastal waters -
the weak to moderate onshore flow tonight will become south overnight, and then become onshore by Wednesday afternoon. No showers are expected. Saharan dust may linger over the waters reducing visibility down to around 5 to 6 nautical miles at times. Weak to moderate onshore flow is expected to develop Thursday and continue through the end of the work week. Dry conditions are expected through much of the week, however, there is plenty of uncertainty towards the latter half of the week depending on the track and potential impacts from hurricane beryl. As beryl enters the bay of campeche, you can expect rain chances to increase as well as wave heights, especially across the offshore waters.

FXUS64 KCRP 030526 AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1226 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Key Messages:

-Minor to Moderate risk of heat-related impacts through Wednesday.

Synopsis: Little to no change is expected in the short-term forecast as a mid-level high centered over the southeastern Gulf states continues to influence the region. This high maintains a ridge extending over Texas and into New Mexico, which is expected to remain largely unchanged over the next day or so. Subsidence under this high pressure system will be the primary driver of the current weather pattern, resulting in settled and warm conditions across South Texas.

Precipitable Water Analysis: The GEF's plume ensemble mean shows PWAT values between 1.75 and 2.10 inches, slightly above the normal values for this time of year, which typically sit around 1.70 inches. Despite the higher PWAT values, the overall dry air mass will limit convective activity, keeping the region dry.

Heat Concerns:

The primary hazard over the next couple of days will be the heat.
Heat indices are expected to approach advisory criteria, with values around 110 degrees today and tomorrow. While these heat indices are concerning, they currently do not warrant a Heat Advisory. However, conditions will be closely monitored, and the forecast will be adjusted as necessary should the situation change.

Tropical Outlook: Hurricane Beryl is currently active in the Caribbean and is heading towards Jamaica. As it is still several days away from reaching the Yucatan and the Gulf, this discussion is included in the long term section below.

LONG TERM
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Key Messages:

- Moderate to Major risk of heat-related impacts mid-week

- High uncertainty late this week into this weekend depending on the track and impacts of Major Hurricane Beryl

A mid to upper level ridge is expected to remain in place across the Southern Plains and Southeast CONUS providing subsidence which will keep us dry with slightly above normal temperatures. However, as we head into the latter portion of this week and weekend, uncertainty enters the forecast as we continue to monitor Major Hurricane Beryl.
With the National Hurricane Center forecasting for Beryl to be in the Bay of Campeche this weekend as a tropical storm, a few models are showing an influx of tropical moisture with periods of heavy rain. Due to the high uncertainty, went with 20-40% chances for showers and thunderstorms from Saturday afternoon+ through Tuesday.
Regardless of the exact track of Beryl, high risk of rip currents can be expected this weekend into early next weak along with a medium chance for coastal flooding as the storm enters the Bay of Campeche.

Slightly above normal temperatures will mix with high dewpoints Thursday and Friday this week leading to heat index values between 109-113 each afternoon across the Coastal Plains and southern Coastal Bend. Current WPC probabilities show a 20-40% chance for heat index values to surpass 110 degrees those two days. Therefore, a moderate to major risk of heat-related impacts are expected for the Independence Day holiday. If spending time outdoors, remember to remain hydrated and always look before you lock, cars can become ovens in as little as 10-15 minutes.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

VFR CIGs are expected to prevail through a majority of the TAF period. Overnight into early Monday morning, brief periods of MVFR CIGs and/or VSBYs will be possible due to patchy fog from ALI to VCT. Light winds expected most of the night becoming south to southeast by Wednesday afternoon, with gusts around 20 knots.

MARINE
Issued at 245 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Weak onshore flow this afternoon is expected to become weak to moderate by tomorrow but may become weak to moderate at times. No showers are expected but Saharan Dust may linger over the waters reducing visibility down to around 5 to 6 nautical miles. Weak to moderate onshore flow is expected to develop Thursday and continue through the end of the work week. Dry conditions are expected through much of the week, however, there is plenty of uncertainty towards the latter half of the week depending on the track and potential impacts from Hurricane Beryl. As Beryl enters the Bay of Campeche, you can expect rain chances to increase as well as wave heights, especially across the offshore waters.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Corpus Christi 94 80 95 80 / 10 0 0 0 Victoria 95 76 95 76 / 10 0 10 0 Laredo 100 78 101 79 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 99 76 99 76 / 10 0 0 0 Rockport 93 83 94 82 / 10 0 10 0 Cotulla 103 78 103 78 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 96 78 97 78 / 10 0 10 0 Navy Corpus 91 83 92 83 / 10 0 10 0

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
GM...None.

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Corpus Christi
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Tue -- 03:25 AM CDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 03:52 AM CDT     1.75 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:37 AM CDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 05:42 PM CDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:56 PM CDT     -0.77 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:28 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Corpus Christi, Texas, Tide feet

Aransas Pass
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Tue -- 03:24 AM CDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 03:50 AM CDT     2.06 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 06:36 AM CDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:27 AM CDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:42 PM CDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:18 PM CDT     -2.30 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 08:28 PM CDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:27 PM CDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Aransas Pass, Texas Current, knots

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