Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Ellenton, FL

UPDATE
Issued at 817 PM EDT Sat May 9 2026

A stratiform area of light to moderate rain continues to push eastward across north FL this evening with some scattered showers also developing offshore of the Nature Coast. The majority of the precipitation activity across north FL should mostly stay just north of the TBW CWA, but some shower activity may develop overnight into Sunday morning either offshore or around coastal areas of west central FL. While forecast confidence is not high in the overall evolution of additional precipitation activity overnight, there should be enough moisture in place with PWATs in the 1.6-1.8 inch range as a series of embedded impulses stream across the northern portions of the state. However, due to the uncertainty in timing and overall coverage of potential additional shower activity, will keep measurable PoPs overnight out of the forecast for now and monitor conditions overnight.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 1249 PM EDT Sat May 9 2026 A near-stationary frontal boundary lingers over north Florida this afternoon as shortwave energy moves across the northern Gulf coast.
This setup will allow for some shower and thunderstorm activity once again today, but mainly limited to Levy County and then east of the area as onshore flow quickly pushes activity eastward. Conditions otherwise will continue to be warm and humid, with some interior locations nearing record highs. A similar setup is forecast for Sunday, with the boundary remaining over north Florida and onshore flow pushing showers and storms over toward the east coast.

For Monday into Tuesday, another shortwave will move over the boundary, with the front shifting southward over the peninsula. This will allow for higher rain chances, especially over the Nature Coast earlier in the day, shifting eastward with onshore flow once again.
High pressure will then build over the region for mid to late week, with warmer and drier conditions expected.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 817 PM EDT Sat May 9 2026

VFR conditions will be in place for the remainder of the evening but MVFR CIGs may develop overnight, particularly around the Tampa Bay area terminals. Some scattered SHRA may also develop early Sunday morning but any shower activity that develops should be light enough to prevent any significant aviation hazards.
Otherwise, any low clouds that develop overnight will lift by mid morning on Sunday with VFR conditions then expected to prevail through the remainder of the TAF period.

MARINE
Issued at 1249 PM EDT Sat May 9 2026 No headlines are expected through Monday with winds mostly from the south/southwest. A frontal boundary will drop southward into the region on Monday, with increasing rain chances, then high pressure builds in for the rest of the week.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 1249 PM EDT Sat May 9 2026 No Red Flag concerns as relative humidity values will remain above critical levels. No significant fog is expected.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 76 90 77 88 / 10 10 0 20 FMY 76 94 76 93 / 10 10 0 10 GIF 74 92 74 91 / 20 20 10 40 SRQ 74 90 75 89 / 10 10 0 10 BKV 70 92 71 90 / 20 10 10 30 SPG 77 90 77 89 / 10 0 0 20

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 5 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 4

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https:// www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.