Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for South Beach, FL

UPDATE
Issued at 905 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025

Forecast on track for tonight, so no significant changes needed.
Dry airmass in place and high pressure extending over the west Atlantic and Florida will maintain dry conditions, light winds and mostly clear skies with some increase in thin cirrus clouds aloft overnight. Hi-res guidance is in a little better agreement showing some patchy fog development NW of I-4 late tonight through early Friday, so have continued to keep that mention in the forecast. Even if fog does not develop, the potential for settling smoke producing limited visibilities will exist along any roadways near any active or smoldering brush fires due to the lighter winds forecast. Lows tonight will be near to slightly above normal in the upper 60s to low 70s.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
Issued at 208 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025

Current-Fri...A mid-level ridge over the western Gulf will continue to build slowly eastward toward the south-central Gulf. Surface high pressure ridging will take up residency across the south-central FL peninsula. Light/variable morning winds will transition to light SSW/SW (5-10 mph) across the interior and onshore at the coast (late morning/early afternoon) with ECSB formation and slow march inland.
Mainly dry conditions as the warming trend continues with afternoon max temps in the near 90F/L90s at the coast (Fri) and M90s into the interior. Heat indices will also be on the climb with peak afternoon values Fri in the M-U90s (perhaps 100F in a few spots across the interior). Overnight lows generally well into the 60s to L70s. Some late night patchy fog may develop north/west of the I-4 corridor into early Fri morning.

Sat-Thu
Previous Extended Forecast Discussion Slightly Modified
The deep layer ridging will persist producing hot temperatures and rain chances no higher than 10 percent. Widespread mid 90s will continue over the interior with a few upper 90s possible with potential for one or more record highs to be equaled or even exceeded. Coastal sections will hold in the lower 90s but there is a better chance for a more delayed sea breeze along the Volusia coast where the offshore flow is a bit stronger so Daytona Beach will approach their record highs on Fri and Sat (See below). Peak heat indices are forecast to gradually creep up reaching 100 to 105 early next week. Widespread coverage of Moderate HeatRisk are forecast with Major HeatRisk impacts possible Orlando metro Sun-Tue. It is worth noting HeatRisk takes into account the time of year, so while these temperatures and heat indices are not unusual for our summertime, they are well above normal for mid May and folks are not at all acclimated to it. This level of heat affects most individuals sensitive to heat, especially those without effective cooling and/or adequate hydration.

The next (small) chance for measurable rainfall may not be until Thursday or Friday of next week, with approach/passage of a weak front, though confidence remains low this far out.

MARINE
Issued at 208 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025

Previous Slightly Modified...High pressure ridge axis is forecast to remain nearly stationary across south central Florida, roughly across Lake Okeechobee and northernmost Bahamas, through the weekend and into early next week. This pattern will produce largely favorable boating conditions with a light offshore (W-SW)
flow each morning shifting E-SE increasing to around 10 knots near the coast with the sea breeze each afternoon. Seas 1-2 FT nearshore and 3 FT offshore through Sat then 1-2 FT all waters Sun-Tue. Chances for precipitation continue to be very low during this period.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 129 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025

VFR conditions through the TAF period. Some models continue to indicate the potential for patchy fog to form, mainly NW of I-4, from 09-13Z. However, confidence remains too low to mention in TAF. Light and variable winds will become W/SW around 5-8 KT by mid morning. The east coast sea breeze will once again form in the afternoon, backing the winds E/SE along the coast and increasing to 10-14 KT(KMLB southward will shift earlier as the sea breeze forms and moves inland quicker across the south). Winds will then become light and variable once again by 00Z.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 208 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025

Previous Slightly Modified...Soils will quickly dry out next several days with no rain in the forecast and temperatures climbing into the low and mid 90s. Peak heat indices from Fri-Mon will approach U90s to L-M100s. Drier air mixing down to the surface will produce min RH values at or below critical values (35 percent) over the interior especially Friday and Saturday. But winds will be light (10 mph or less) so conditions will not reach Red Flag criteria.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 94 69 94 69 / 0 0 0 0 MCO 96 72 97 73 / 0 0 0 0 MLB 91 72 92 73 / 0 0 0 0 VRB 92 71 93 72 / 0 0 0 0 LEE 94 70 94 72 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 97 70 97 71 / 0 0 0 0 ORL 96 73 96 74 / 0 0 0 0 FPR 91 70 92 71 / 0 0 0 0

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
AM...None.