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GMZ232 Expires:202312010430;;659622 Fzus54 Kcrp 301531 Cwfcrp
coastal waters forecast for texas national weather service corpus christi tx 931 am cst Thu nov 30 2023
middle texas coastal waters from baffin bay to matagorda ship channel out to 60 nautical miles. Seas are provided as a range of the average height of the highest 1/3 of the waves...along with occasional height of the average highest 10 percent of the waves.
gmz231-232-010430- baffin bay and upper laguna madre-corpus christi and nueces bays- 931 am cst Thu nov 30 2023
.small craft advisory in effect until 6 pm cst this evening...
Rest of today..South winds around 20 knots, increasing to 20 to 25 knots this afternoon. Bay and inland waters choppy to occasionally rough. Patchy fog late this morning. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms late this morning.
Tonight..South winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots, diminishing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Bay and inland waters slightly choppy to occasionally choppy. Patchy fog after midnight.
Friday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming north in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters smooth to slightly choppy. Patchy dense fog in the morning. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Friday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots, diminishing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Bay and inland waters slightly choppy to occasionally choppy.
Saturday..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay and inland waters smooth to slightly choppy.
Saturday night..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay and inland waters smooth to slightly choppy.
Sunday..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay and inland waters smooth to slightly choppy.
Sunday night..Northwest winds around 5 knots. Bay and inland waters smooth.
Monday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming northeast in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters smooth to slightly choppy.
Monday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming south after midnight. Bay and inland waters smooth.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ200 931 Am Cst Thu Nov 30 2023
Synopsis for the middle texas coastal waters..
strong onshore flow will continue to develop today leading to small craft advisory conditions through this evening for the bays and nearshore waters. These strong winds will persist over the offshore waters through Friday morning. There is a good chance we see a few gusts to gale force with seas climbing to near 12 feet at times. Scattered to numerous showers this morning will drop to scattered coverage and isolated Thunderstorms this afternoon. Rain chances diminish tonight but return to 30 to 60 percent on Friday. Patchy sea fog is possible tonight and Friday ahead of an approaching cold front. North to northeast winds are forecast to remain below 15 knots through the first half of next week. Wave heights of 3-4 feet will persist through Sunday night before decreasing to 2 feet of less early next week.

FXUS64 KCRP 301144 AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 544 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 251 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023

Key Messages:

- Slight Risk of Severe Thunderstorms across the Victoria Crossroads - High Risk of Rip Currents Today - Breezy southerly flow picks up

Water vapor imagery this morning reveals a shortwave trough approaching the region from the west. At the surface, patchy fog and light rain/drizzle can be seen across much of the region as moisture streams into the region. The latest GOES TPW imagery shows PWATs around 1.4-1.5" early this morning. PWATs will climb to near 1.6- 1.7" later this morning as a ~40 knot southerly LLJ becomes established. Latest MSAS analysis hints at a warm front beginning it's north-northeastward journey along the coast this morning. As this warm front moves north, a plume of instability, characterized by MLCAPE from 1500-2000 J/kg, 0-3km SRH from 300-500 m2/s2, and moderate mid level lapse rates, will be tugged through the region. The greatest threat for severe storms today will be across the Victoria Crossroads and Northern Coastal Bend as they will be closer to the more favorable upper level dynamics.
As a result, SPC currently places our northeastern counties in a Slight Risk of Severe Storms. Convective activity is likely to develop around daybreak across our northeastern counties as we destabilize. Latest HRRR ensemble paintball keeps some isolated convection in the area through the early to mid afternoon hours.
As the LLJ strengthens even further, activity will shift towards southeast Texas. Slightly drier air will begin to work in from the west this afternoon which will help bring an end to our rain chances.

The development of patchy to areas of fog will be the main concern tonight. Lingering low level moisture and light winds will allow dewpoint depressions to narrow and condensation pressure deficits to fall into the 2-5mb range. SREF and HRRR probabilities continue to indicate a medium to high chance of visibility's less than 3 miles overnight. Patchy sea fog will also be possible over the bays and nearshore waters as water temps are in the low 60s and dewpoints are forecast to be in the upper 60s.

A weak cold front will move through the region on Friday which will help improve visibilities across the region. This boundary will slowly drift south through the day, eventually moving offshore during the evening hours. A prefrontal trough is likely to develop ahead of the boundary leading to a slight chance of showers/storms, generally east of Highway 281, on Friday.

Lastly, there is a high risk of rip currents today for our Gulf- facing beaches as south-southeasterly winds pick up to 20-25 knots.
Buoy 19 is currently reporting wave heights around 6 feet and swells around 6 seconds. Gerling-Hanson plots show these values increasing through the day with wave heights up to 10 feet and swells from 8- 9s. All of these factors will lead to hazardous conditions along our coast today.

LONG TERM
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 251 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023

No significant weather hazards are expected this weekend through the end of next week. While ensemble guidance has two 500 hPa troughs progressing across the Southern Plains during this timeframe, the amount of moisture return is expected to be very limited. NAEFS and ENS mean PWAT values ranging roughly between the 25th and 50th percentile of climatology through Wednesday of next week. Therefore, the chances for any measurable rainfall will remain less than 20% through next week. There is a high chance (70%) that temperatures next week will be either near or above normal.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 528 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023

Poor aviation conditions are in place this morning as all terminals are experiencing IFR/LIFR ceilings and visibilities.
Showers will remain possible at all terminals through the mid day.
Maintained a mention of VCTS with a TEMPO for TSRA at VCT as strong to severe storm are possible. A breezy southerly flow will develop this morning with gusts up to 25 knots possible at ALI/CRP/VCT. ALI/LRD/COT will briefly see VFR conditions this afternoon before ceilings lower this evening. CRP/VCT will likely maintain MVFR through this afternoon. Patchy fog will develop again tonight across all terminals. Can't rule out some LIFR vis closer to sunrise.

MARINE
Issued at 251 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023

Strong onshore flow will continue to develop today leading to Small Craft Advisory conditions through this evening for the bays and nearshore waters. These strong winds will persist over the offshore waters through Friday morning. There is a good chance we see a few gusts to gale force with seas climbing to near 12 feet at times. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely through the day today with activity becoming more isolated on Friday.
Patchy sea fog is possible tonight and Friday ahead of an approaching cold front. North/northeast winds are forecast to remain below 15 knots through the first half of next week. Wave heights of 3-4 feet will persist through Sunday night before decreasing to 2 feet of less early next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Corpus Christi 81 67 78 61 / 30 0 20 0 Victoria 75 62 73 57 / 80 10 30 10 Laredo 76 61 75 56 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 80 63 77 57 / 20 0 20 0 Rockport 76 64 74 59 / 50 10 30 0 Cotulla 76 57 77 54 / 10 0 0 0 Kingsville 82 65 79 60 / 20 0 20 0 Navy Corpus 78 68 77 64 / 30 0 30 0

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for TXZ345-442-443- 447.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ231-232-236-237.

Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST tonight for GMZ250-255.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Friday for GMZ270-275.

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Corpus Christi
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Thu -- 02:52 AM CST     0.43 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:02 AM CST     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:14 AM CST     Moonset
Thu -- 03:33 PM CST     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:33 PM CST     Sunset
Thu -- 08:33 PM CST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Corpus Christi, Texas (2) (expired 1999-07-23), Tide feet

Aransas Pass
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Thu -- 02:20 AM CST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 07:01 AM CST     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:59 AM CST     -2.15 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 10:13 AM CST     Moonset
Thu -- 02:36 PM CST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:32 PM CST     Sunset
Thu -- 07:51 PM CST     2.09 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 08:32 PM CST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Aransas Pass, Texas Current, knots

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Corpus Christi, TX,