Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Tierra Grande, TX

DISCUSSION
Issued at 1128 AM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

There are several concerns for the upcoming forecast. Initially the main concern will be patchy to areas of fog each morning through Saturday morning. Friday morning has the best chance of dense fog with visibilities as low as 1/4SM, mainly across the Coastal Plains and Victoria Crossroads. An increase in rain chances Friday night into Saturday will limit the fog potential.

As for sea fog, the sea surface temperatures for the bays and nearshore waters have increased and are now in the low to mid 60s.
Dewpoints are generally in the mid 60s, thus conditions are borderline for patchy sea fog to develop tonight/Friday morning.
However, if dewpoints increase to mid to upper 60s, conditions may become more conducive for areas of sea fog. Drier conditions are expected behind a cold front Saturday or Saturday night.

The next concern will be an increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms ahead of and along a cold front that is expected to move through S TX Saturday or Saturday night. The Storms Prediction Center has the northern Brush Country, northern Coastal Plains and Victoria Crossroads in a Marginal (1 of 5) Risk of severe thunderstorms for Saturday. Models are indicating conducive conditions for storms, but the chance of storms becoming severe are very low (<10%). The chance of showers and thunderstorms begins Friday night with a low to medium (15-40%) chance then increasing to a 60-90% chance across the northern Brush Country to the Victoria Crossroads and southward to the northern Coastal Bend on Saturday.
The highest chance is across the Victoria Crossroads. Given the uncertainty on amount of available moisture and strength of the instability, will continue to adjust the forecast as the events approaches this weekend.

Very warm conditions will continue through Saturday with not much Cold Air Advection behind the cold front. Highs post front are expected to be only 3-5 degrees cooler. Nights will be noticeably cooler in the 50s, but this is due more to a drier airmass and clear skies rather than CAA.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 524 PM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

VFR conditions will persist for the next several hours before patchy to areas of fog and low stratus develop overnight. This will lead to mainly a mix of MVFR and IFR conditions, however, LIFR conditions are possible at times generally between 09-14Z Friday for ALI/VCT. CIGs will lift and VSBYs will increase by midmorning leading to VFR conditions through Friday evening.
Expect light southeasterly winds overnight tonight, increasing up to 12-20 knots sustained with gusts up to 20-25 knots Friday afternoon.

MARINE
Issued at 1128 AM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

A light to gentle onshore breeze (BF 2-3) can be expected through tonight. Winds are expected to increase to moderate to fresh (BF 4-5) levels through Friday and continues through Saturday ahead of a cold front. Small Craft Advisory conditions are possible Friday night through Saturday with a fresh to strong breeze. Showers and thunderstorms are expected ahead and along the frontal boundary, beginning Friday night with rain chances increasing to medium to high (40-80%) through the day Saturday. Winds will be more northwesterly post-front before returning to an onshore direction with gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) conditions by the start of next week. Patchy to areas of fog can be expected tonight through Friday morning and is possible Saturday morning.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 1128 AM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

Minimum relative humidity values will remain above 30% through Saturday. Friday night and Saturday will bring our next chance for showers and thunderstorms, mainly across the eastern half of the area along and ahead of our next cold front. Behind this front, elevated to critical fire weather conditions could return, as relative humidity values are forecast to drop well below 30% mainly across the Brush Country and western Coastal Plains. This combined with 20-foot winds of 10-20 mph, with frequent gusts to 25 mph, and Energy Release Component values in the 70-89th percentile may prompt the issuance of a Fire Danger Statement (RFD) or a Red Flag Warning (RFW) Saturday through Tuesday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Corpus Christi 63 80 65 81 / 0 0 20 50 Victoria 60 79 62 78 / 0 10 40 90 Laredo 63 87 66 87 / 0 0 10 10 Alice 60 83 63 84 / 0 0 20 40 Rockport 63 77 65 76 / 0 10 30 70 Cotulla 60 85 63 83 / 0 0 20 40 Kingsville 60 82 63 86 / 0 0 20 30 Navy Corpus 64 75 66 76 / 0 10 30 60

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
GM...None.