Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Tierra Grande, TX

LONG TERM
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 219 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025

Key Messages:

- Summer-like temperatures continue through Tuesday, with a Heat Risk approaching the Major/Extreme Categories across the Brush Country.

- A frontal passage on Tuesday will reduce the heat risk.

Upper ridge influence continues to bring summer-like temperatures across South Texas Tuesday. Combined with Gulf-rich moisture, heat indices have a high-likelihood of remaining above 105F across much of South Texas. Across the western Brush Country and along the Rio Grande, a dry line passage will lower minimum relative humidity ranges to 10-20% range, resulting in an elevated fire risk Monday afternoon.

By Tuesday, an upper level trough over the Intermountain West will begin lifting as it moves into the Central Plains. At the surface, this translates to a frontal passage throughout Central and South Texas, switching winds from southerly to N/NE'ly. Ensemble models continue to place the southern extent of >20% PoPs from Central Texas, and to the north, Tuesday through Wednesday. The next best chance for rain is actually located more along a lee trough forming along the Sierra Madre Oriental. As of this forecast, this still keeps most of South Texas under 15% PoPs, so confidence for Wednesday-Friday rainfall is low.

Post front Wednesday still brings highs at or above 100F across the Rio Grande Plains/Brush Country through the upcoming weekend.
Elsewhere, highs will remains in the 90s except along the immediate coastline.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1207 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025

IFR/MVFR ceilings have blanketed the Coastal Plains underneath cirrus clouds that make it difficult to see from satellite. ALI is lowest at 500 feet. MVFR vsby reductions have been noted over ALI/VCT and will likely continue through the early morning hours with wind speeds around 10 knots. IFR/MVFR will continue through most of this morning, clearing to VFR across all terminals by the afternoon. South to southeasterly winds will strengthen to around 15 knots with gusts around 25 knots. Out west over COT/LRD, winds will be weaker at around 10 knots and will only have a short period of time when MVFR ceilings may impact from 11-15Z.

MARINE
Issued at 219 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025

A moderate to fresh onshore breeze (BF 4-5) with 4-5 ft seas will persist through Monday morning, with bays and nearshore waters having strong (BF 6) wind gusts Monday afternoon along with seas increasing to 5-6 ft. Tuesday, winds will become more gentle and shift from the northeast Wednesday morning through Thursday with seas subsiding down to 3-4 ft.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 219 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025

Today, borderline elevated fire weather conditions will develop primarily over Webb County. This time window is short with relative humidity briefly dropping to 25-30% in the late afternoon. Winds at 20ft will remain less than 15 mph and therefore don't have a fire danger statement in effect today. Next week, Energy Release Components (ERC) in the 60-90th percentile along the Rio Grande Plains and western Brush Country, surface and 20 ft winds around 15 mph, as well as minimum relative humidity values ranging from 15-30% (dropping to as low as 10-20% on Monday afternoon) will result in an elevated fire risk daily into the middle of the week. Chances for precipitation along a dryline Tuesday will be greater north of the Brush Country, thus providing a very low chance for a wetting rain. Weaker 20 ft winds across this area will limit the fire risk.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Corpus Christi 91 78 91 78 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 94 76 93 76 / 0 0 0 0 Laredo 106 77 106 79 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 100 76 99 77 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 89 78 88 79 / 0 0 0 0 Cotulla 106 77 105 78 / 0 10 10 10 Kingsville 97 77 95 77 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 86 78 86 79 / 0 0 0 0

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
GM...None.