Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Orchid, FL

DISCUSSION
Issued at 419 AM EDT Tue May 20 2025

Today-Tonight... High pressure over the Florida peninsula will continue to dominate the local weather pattern. West to southwest winds will generally be 10 mph or less today, with winds backing to the south to southeast behind the east coast sea breeze (mainly across the coast) in the afternoon. Due to the more dominate offshore flow, the west coast sea breeze will push farther into east central Florida, with the sea breeze collision happening closer to the coast than yesterday. Thus, there is a low (20 percent) chance of rain and lightning storms along this boundary collision this afternoon, mainly from Volusia to central Brevard, and from western Osceola to northern Okeechobee county. Otherwise, mostly dry conditions are forecast today with partly sunny to mostly sunny skies.

Well above normal temperatures will continue with near record highs forecast once again. Afternoon high temperatures will be in the mid 90s across the interior, and low to mid 90s along the coast where the sea breeze will help keep temperatures slightly cooler. Peak heat indices are forecast to reach between 100-105 today. Most of our climate sites will be in a good positions to potentially break or tie their daily record highs today (see below). Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 70s, except in the upper 60s in far northern Volusia/Lake counties.

Wednesday- Thursday... Deep layer ridging over the Florida peninsula will shift eastward into Wednesday as a cold front approaches from the west. This weak cold front is progged to move slowly across east central Florida on Thursday, reaching South Florida late Thursday night. Model trends have slowed the frontal passage down a little bit across east central Florida from previous runs. With the slower frontal passage, more daytime heating can occur across the southern portions of our CWA Warm temperatures are forecast through the period, with temperatures becoming more seasonable across the north on Thursday as the front moves through. Afternoon highs will be in the low to mid 90s on Wednesday, with temperatures cooling slightly to the upper 80s to low 90s across the north on Thursday.
Temperatures will remain above normal across the south however on Thursday, with highs in low to mid 90s as more daytime heating occurs before the front moves across the area. West to southwest winds on Wednesday will increase to 10-15 mph with gusts 20-25 mph in the afternoon, which will pin the east coast sea breeze just off the coast. Winds will become west to northwest Thursday morning before shifting northeast to east by the afternoon behind the front, with speeds remaining 10 mph or less.

Most areas will remain dry on Wednesday, however, there remains a low (20 percent) chance of showers across the Treasure Coast and Okeechobee counties in the afternoon. While lightning storms are not forecast on Wednesday, the potential for a lightning storm to develop is there. However, confidence is just too low to include it in the forecast at this time. Rain and lightning storm chances increase into late week as moisture out ahead of and along the front, increases. There is a low to medium (20-50 percent) chance for rain on Thursday along and ahead of the front, with a low to medium (20-30 percent) chance for lightning storms. The greatest potential for storms will be across the southern portion of the CWA where more daytime heating will occur. Some storms on Thursday may be strong, with forecast soundings showing a favorable environment with sufficient instability (MUCAPE 1000-2100 J/kg) and shear (SFC-1km shear around 20-40 KT), cooler temperatures aloft (-8 to -10 C at 500mb), as well as abundant low-level moisture (PW values between 1.5- 2.0"). Thus, the primary storm threats on Thursday will be gusty winds of 50 mph, small hail, frequent lightning, and locally heavy downpours.

Friday-Monday... The aforementioned weak cold front will continue to slowly shift southward into South Florida on Friday before slowly shifting back northward across Treasure Coast/Okeechobee counties on Saturday, and back across north Florida on Sunday. Surface high pressure will build behind the front through early next week.
Lingering moisture across the area into the weekend will keep rain chances in the forecast. There is a low to medium (20-30 percent)
chance of rain from Cape Canaveral to Orlando southward on Friday , with a low (20 percent) of lightning storms. While Saturday will be mostly dry, there is a low (20 percent) chance of rain from Orlando southward on Sunday, and a low to medium (20-30 percent) chance of rain on Monday. Light northwest winds each morning will become east to southeast along the coast each afternoon as the east coast sea breeze forms and pushes inland. Wind speeds will generally be 10 mph or less. Afternoon highs will be in the upper 80s to low 90s along the coast, and low to mid 90s across the interior each day.

MARINE
Issued at 419 AM EDT Tue May 20 2025

Today-Saturday... Surface Atlantic ridge will remain over the the Florida peninsula into mid week before a weak cold front moves across the local waters on Thursday. High pressure will then build back over the local waters into the weekend. Mostly favorable boating conditions are forecast through the week. Light offshore winds through mid week and once again this weekend will turn onshore near the coast each afternoon behind the east coast sea breeze.
While wind speeds will generally be 10 KT or less, winds are forecast to increase to around 15 KT tonight and Wednesday night across the Gulf stream. Northwest to west winds early Thursday will become northeast to east behind the front. Seas 1-2ft increasing to 3 ft offshore tonight and Wednesday, and 2-3ft on Thursday through Saturday. While conditions will be mostly dry, there are scattered offshore-moving showers and lightning storms forecast on Thursday and Friday.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 148 AM EDT Tue May 20 2025

VFR conditions forecast to largely prevail through the rest of tonight through Tuesday. Similar to yesterday, it will be mostly dry across the area. However, isolated showers and possibly a storm or two may result from the sea breeze collision, which will occur a little farther east, near to east of Orlando and west of I-95 toward sunset. Have added VCSH for now to KDAB/KSFB/KMCO/KTIX later in the afternoon through early evening to account for this low potential of showers/storms (around 20 percent). SW winds will be a little stronger today, but only increasing to around 7-9 knots, with the east coast sea breeze developing and switching winds at the coast to the E/SE around 10-15 knots.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 419 AM EDT Tue May 20 2025

Well above normal temperatures will keep conditions unseasonably hot across east central Florida through mid week. Min RH values will fall between 40-45 percent across the interior each afternoon. While most locations will remain dry, there is a low (20 percent) chance of rain and lightning storms this afternoon, mainly from Volusia to central Brevard, and from western Osceola to northern Okeechobee county, where the sea breeze collision is forecast to occur.
Isolated showers will once again be possible across the Treasure Coast and Okeechobee counties Wednesday afternoon. The low min RH values coupled with low rain chances through mid week will continue to decrease soil moisture. West to southwest winds are forecast to remain below 15 mph, so conditions will be below Red Flag criteria (but will remain fire sensitive). West to southwest winds will prevail through mid week with speeds 10 mph or less. The east coast sea breeze will form this afternoon, turning the winds onshore along the coast. Due to a slightly more dominate offshore flow on Wednesday, the east coast sea breeze is forecast to remain pinned just offshore.

CLIMATE
Issued at 419 AM EDT Tue May 20 2025

Record highs today through Thursday:

DAB 20-May 94 2008 LEE 20-May 95 2017 SFB 20-May 95 2017 MCO 20-May 96 1935 MLB 20-May 95 1980 VRB 20-May 93 2020 FPR 20-May 96 1980

DAB 21-May 97 1998 LEE 21-May 97 1962 SFB 21-May 100 1962 MCO 21-May 98 1908 MLB 21-May 96 1998 VRB 21-May 95 2015 FPR 21-May 97 2008

DAB 22-May 97 1962 LEE 22-May 98 1962 SFB 22-May 99 1998 MCO 22-May 97 1962 MLB 22-May 95 1998 VRB 22-May 94 1978 FPR 22-May 95 1988



PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 94 70 94 72 / 20 0 10 10 MCO 96 73 95 75 / 20 0 10 0 MLB 93 73 93 74 / 10 0 10 10 VRB 94 72 95 72 / 10 0 20 10 LEE 94 72 93 74 / 10 0 10 10 SFB 96 72 96 74 / 20 0 10 0 ORL 96 73 95 75 / 20 0 10 10 FPR 93 71 94 71 / 10 0 20 10

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
AM...None.