DISCUSSION
Issued at 238 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024

A west-to-east expansive pocket of dry air is in place across the central Gulf of Mexico and extends eastward into the west central Florida peninsula. This region of drier air is sandwiched between two separate baroclinic zones with deeper moisture across south Florida and another region of deeper moisture across the northern Gulf Coast. Due to the presence of the drier air, it has brought a rain-free end to the weekend for the Tampa Bay area but the deeper moisture across the northern and southern portions of the forecast area will at least maintain scattered showers and isolated storm chances through this evening. However, any precipitation activity should then taper off overnight as diurnal heating fades but can't completely rule out some isolated activity near the coast at times tonight as activity is expected offshore with the greatest coverage off the Nature Coast. In addition, recent guidance continues to hint at the possibility of patchy fog and/or low stratus tonight mainly across the Nature Coast but there is some evidence that coverage could extend further southward into southern interior areas.
Regardless, the ingredients for fog will once again be pretty favorable given the moist soil conditions, small dewpoint depressions, and a very light ENE flow but it also looks like high clouds will continue stream across the area so this could be a limiting factor.

A low pressure system off the US Southeast coast will continue to gradually organize early this week and is projected to eventually push into the Carolinas over the next couple of days, which also has about a 50% chance of acquiring subtropical or tropical characteristics before it makes landfall. While this system is not expected to bring impacts to our forecast area, it will merge with upper level energy from Francine's remnants to produce a large cut- off low that will meander around the central Appalachians into mid week or possibly even later. This large cut-off low will be rather slow to move for an extended period of time due to a blocking upper ridge in southeast Canada/New England so Florida will generally be in cyclonic flow aloft for much of the week ahead. Given the more westerly/northwesterly flow aloft that is expected, overall drier air should filter into the region compared to last week with PWATs looking to range around 1.5-1.8 inches most days. However, the surface pressure gradient across the local area is expected to be rather weak so daily sea breeze circulations will occur and interact with the persistent stationary frontal boundary that has been in place to produce daily chances of scattered showers and storms. The blocking ridge to the north may then eventually help to retrograde the upper low back towards the Florida peninsula late week and into the weekend to possibly bring an increase in precipitation coverage by the end of the long term period, but high uncertainty remains in model solutions at this time on how this upper level pattern evolves. In addition, temperatures throughout much of the week look to be consistent with highs generally in the upper 80s to low 90s and triple-digit heat indices, though it appears that values will be less than advisory criteria.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 729 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024 Areas of low clouds and patchy fog will develop late tonight with areas of MVFR CIGs and VSBYs...and patchy IFR CIGs /VSBYs. Main terminals likely to be impacted are SRQ/LAL/PGD/FMY/RSW. Low clouds will lift Monday morning with VFR CIGs expected the remainder of the day.

MARINE
Issued at 238 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024

A weak frontal boundary will remain stationary across the region into the new week with winds generally be from the northeast in the morning hours before shifting onshore as the sea breeze develops during the afternoon over the next couple of days. A weak surface pressure gradient will keep wind speeds between 5-10 kts and seas less than 2 feet.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 238 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024

While some drier air has filtered into parts of the area, minimum relative humidity values are still expected to remain well above critical levels well into the new week. Winds will generally be out of the northeast in the morning hours before switching onshore in the afternoon hours over the next couple of days with wind speeds around 5-10 mph. This overall wind pattern will support daily scattered showers and thunderstorms along the sea breeze circulation, but the fire danger will remain low due to recent rainfall and wet soil conditions.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 77 89 76 90 / 0 30 10 30 FMY 77 92 77 91 / 0 20 10 40 GIF 76 92 75 93 / 10 40 10 40 SRQ 77 90 76 90 / 0 20 10 30 BKV 73 89 72 90 / 10 40 10 40 SPG 80 90 80 90 / 0 20 10 30

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 4 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 4

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https:// www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.