Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Indian Shores, FL

UPDATE
Issued at 746 PM EST Thu Feb 12 2026

Satellite, web cams, and surface obs show a large and expansive fog bank across coastal waters this evening from Tampa Bay northward. With a light WNW flow, this fog is beginning to push onshore around Tampa Bay Bay, with reduced visibilities noted across the region right at the coast. This prompted a dense fog advisory for coastal areas around Tampa Bay. The expectation is that this will continue expanding inland through the night, likely necessitating the expansion of dense fog advisories currently in effect. There is an additional area pushing onshore across the Nature Coast. However, web cams up this way show this is mainly still low clouds at 100 to 200 ft or so. As such, surface visibilities have yet to be impacted and no dense fog advisory has been issued yet.

However, there is a wild card that could impact the evolution of fog overnight: a low-level boundary propagating westward through central Florida. With such light flow, this boundary has had more momentum than the flow to carry it westward. With temperatures now cooling, however, the momentum should begin to wane, and the boundary should fade. Given that there is still some uncertainty as to when and where this boundary should loose steam, a broader dense fog advisory has been withheld for now.

Some adjustments to coverage and intensity of fog have been to the forecast tonight. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track. Will continue to monitor conditions to update the dense fog advisory as needed.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 126 PM EST Thu Feb 12 2026 Northwest flow continues aloft this afternoon with high pressure centered over Mexico. At the surface, a weak frontal boundary is slowly moving southward over the peninsula, with just a few light showers accompanying it. This boundary will gradually dissipate on Friday, then high pressure builds over the southeast and holds over the region as it shifts eastward through the weekend. Overall, our local weather will not change much over the next several days, with generally mild conditions and fog being the primary concern each night.

Late this weekend into early next week, a disturbance will move along the northern Gulf coast, eventually bringing our next (and good) chance for rain and maybe even a few thunderstorms. The best rain chances at this time look to be late Sunday through early Monday morning, clearing by Monday night. High pressure then builds back in for the rest of the week, with near to slightly above normal

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 746 PM EST Thu Feb 12 2026

Marine fog is beginning to settle near coastal terminals in the Tampa Bay area. Over the next few hours, conditions will likely drop to LIFR at these locations, with some airports potentially seeing periods of time where the visibility drops below landing minimums.
Fog also looks to develop at inland and SWFL terminals later in the night and towards morning, with periods of LIFR conditions also possible in the 09Z to 13Z time-frame in particular. Most IFR/LIFR conditions should clear by 15Z, but there is a low chance that it could be later for coastal terminals like TPA, PIE, and SRQ. Fog will continue to be a problem until the next front arrives late Sunday and into Monday.



MARINE
Issued at 746 PM EST Thu Feb 12 2026

Dense marine fog is settling across waters from around Tampa Bay northward to the FL Big Bend region and extends out beyond 60NM in some areas. This fog is likely to remain dense through the night before thinning some during the day. However, warm and humid air over cool Gulf Waters favors lingering sea fog for the next few days until the next front arrives late Sunday and into Monday, finally clearing conditions out. As the front approaches, winds and seas will build, with a period of hazardous marine conditions extending into next week.



FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 126 PM EST Thu Feb 12 2026 Relative humidity values will remain above critical levels with no Red Flag concerns. The main issue will be fog tonight into tomorrow morning, mainly from around Tampa Bay southward.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 57 76 57 79 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 58 78 58 81 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 55 78 56 79 / 10 10 0 10 SRQ 57 75 55 78 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 48 78 48 81 / 0 0 0 10 SPG 60 74 61 77 / 0 10 0 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 7 AM EST Friday for Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Manatee-Pinellas.

Gulf waters...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST Friday for Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM- Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.