Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Ingleside on the Bay, TX

LONG TERM
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 254 AM CDT Tue May 20 2025

Key Messages:

- Generally moderate to major risk of heat-related impacts

A boundary will move to the north Wednesday night, lowering PoPs to below 15% through the weekend. Our rain chances return when an inverted trough develops early next week, leading to a low (15-30%)
chance of showers and thunderstorms. Rain chances could continue beyond Monday as a mid-level low moves across the northern Plains and sends a front towards our area; however, there is a lot of question as to when and if it will make it all the way to South Texas before fizzling out. For now, have continued with the NBM which continues our low rain chances through the middle of the week.

Our biggest threats for the long term forecast will be the continued heat. Maximum heat index values will range from 105-109 through the weekend, when increased moisture and slightly warmer temperatures will bring heat index values up to 110-114. Luckily, the increased rain potential should lead to slightly cooler temperatures early next week, though heat index values will still reach 100-109.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1102 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025

Generally MVFR ceilings will continue tonight across South Texas.
Have included a TEMPO at ALI for IFR visibility from 08Z-12Z.
VFR conditions will develop around 18Z for all terminals. Winds will be light and variable as a boundary approaches the area.
There is a low chance (10-20%) that showers and thunderstorms will develop ahead of and along the boundary Tuesday but with low confidence, have continued to leave this out of the TAF.

MARINE
Issued at 254 AM CDT Tue May 20 2025

Onshore flow will reduce to light to gentle breezes (BF 2-3)
today. Tuesday night, a weak front will push offshore, briefly resulting in gentle to moderate easterlies. 5-7 ft seas in the offshore waters will reduce to 4-5 ft. In the nearshore waters seas will reduce from near 5 ft to near 3 ft by Wednesday.

A gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) east to southeasterly wind will continue through Saturday. Winds will increase to a moderate to fresh breeze (BF 4-5) Saturday night through Sunday and persist into early next week. There is a low (10-30%) chance for showers and thunderstorms Thursday through early next week.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 254 AM CDT Tue May 20 2025

A frontal passage today will drop minimum relative humidity values across the Rio Grande Plains and northern Brush country to near 15%, increasing to 20-40% throughout the remainder of the Brush Country and Victoria Crossroads. With the frontal passage, a low chance of showers/thunderstorms (10-20%), along with weak 20 ft winds, will limit the fire risk today. This front will stall and lift north Wednesday, increasing min RH's to above 30% across much of South Texas, limiting further the fire risk Wednesday afternoon. Relative humidity values will generally remain above 25% late this week and into this weekend. Winds could get breezy in the afternoons, coinciding with the times of the lowest relative humidity values. Even with this, expect that any elevated fire weather concerns would be limited.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Corpus Christi 93 77 90 77 / 20 0 10 10 Victoria 96 72 94 74 / 30 0 0 0 Laredo 103 78 99 76 / 20 10 20 30 Alice 99 76 94 74 / 20 0 10 20 Rockport 91 78 89 78 / 20 0 10 10 Cotulla 104 76 100 76 / 20 0 10 10 Kingsville 96 77 92 77 / 20 0 10 20 Navy Corpus 88 79 86 79 / 20 0 10 10

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
GM...None.