Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Sebastian, FL

UPDATE
Issued at 845 PM EDT Mon May 12 2025

Scattered to numerous showers and storms have pushed offshore across the local Atlantic waters this evening, with some isolated shower development continuing across portions of the interior.
Activity is anticipated to gradually diminish through the overnight hours, with drier air forecast to filter in across the Florida peninsula. Cut PoPs back a bit this evening to better follow current radar trends, and also kept thunder chances primarily confined to the Treasure Coast and adjacent Atlantic waters. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track. Temperatures only fall into the mid to upper 60s overnight, with skies remaining partly to mostly cloudy. Southerly winds become light overnight.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
Issued at 251 PM EDT Mon May 12 2025

Current-Tonight... Showers and occasional embedded lightning storms continue to move northeastward as a weak cold front approaches the western Peninsula. The highest rainfall totals observed since midnight now range 2-4.5 inches along and just east of I-4. While areas further south were dry for several hours this morning, coverage of scattered to numerous showers has started to steadily build this afternoon. The focus for heavy rainfall will increase across these areas through late this afternoon and into the evening with additional rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches (isolated 4-5 inches) forecast across portions of southern Brevard, Okeechobee, and the Treasure Coast counties. A Slight Risk for excessive rainfall continues across all of east central Florida, and repeated rounds of heavy rainfall could lead to minor flooding of urban or low-lying areas. Continuing to lose confidence in the potential for strong storms due to the lack of instability, and isolated lightning strikes and heavy downpours will be the primary storm hazards through the remainder of the day. Showers gradually clear from northwest to southeast late this afternoon and into the late evening.

Tuesday-Wednesday... The weak cold front moves east-southeast of Lake Okeechobee and the Treasure Coast early Tuesday with a few lingering showers making their final push offshore. A much drier airmass briefly builds behind the front with moisture modestly recovering into the afternoon (PWAT ~1-1.2"). CAMs have suggested moisture may be enough to support a few showers across the north tomorrow afternoon as a weak pulse of vorticity moves through the low to mid levels. No mentionable rain chances on Wednesday. Light westerly flow will help to kickstart a warming trend each day.
Temperatures in the mid to upper 80s on Tuesday warm to widely spread the upper 80s on Wednesday. Morning temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s tomorrow range the 60s Wednesday morning.

Thursday-Sunday (previous)... Dry and hot as ridging builds over the Gulf and Florida, developing weak high pressure at the surface. Some nuance in how the surface high interacts with the Atlantic high, and whether the former remains discrete or gets absorbed into the ridge axis of the latter. Temperatures climb well above normal into the mid to upper 90s by the weekend with heat risk impacts felt either way, but whether we see record warm heat is less clear now. No mentionable rain chances at this time.

MARINE
Issued at 251 PM EDT Mon May 12 2025

Tonight... Poor boating conditions as a cold front approaches and moves through the waters from the west. Small Craft should exercise caution offshore for south winds around 15-20 kts. Scattered to numerous showers continue to move offshore with occasional embedded lightning strikes. Seas 3-5 ft.

Tuesday-Friday (modified previous)... Generally favorable, albeit increasingly hot boating conditions as the front finally departs east-southeast and high pressure builds over the area. W-SW winds 5-10 kts shift SSE-SE and increase to 10-15 kts in the afternoons and evenings with the sea breeze circulation. Seas 3-4 ft Tuesday subside to 2-3 ft Wednesday onward. Rain and lightning storm chances linger into Tuesday and possibly Wednesday, then dry conditions expected Thursday onward.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 720 PM EDT Mon May 12 2025

Showers continue at SUA, with intensity diminishing over the next hour or so as activity pushes offshore. Maintained a TEMPO at SUA through 01Z for the ongoing activity. Isolated shower development will continue to be possible near the terminals over the next couple of hours, with VCSH continuing through 02Z across the interior terminals and DAB, and between 03-04Z from TIX southward.
Dry conditions then develop through the overnight hours and into tomorrow, though some light shower activity cannot fully be ruled out. Confidence was too low to include mention within the TAF package, but will monitor and amend as needed. South-southwest flow is forecast to develop overnight into tomorrow, with terminals from TIX southward along the coast becoming southeasterly late tomorrow afternoon as the east coast sea breeze attempts to develop and move inland. Wind speeds generally remaining below 10 knots through the period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 67 86 66 87 / 20 20 0 10 MCO 69 84 67 87 / 20 20 0 10 MLB 69 86 67 86 / 30 10 10 10 VRB 69 87 66 86 / 40 20 10 10 LEE 69 84 68 87 / 20 20 0 10 SFB 67 87 67 89 / 20 20 0 10 ORL 69 85 68 88 / 20 20 0 10 FPR 68 87 65 86 / 50 20 10 10

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
AM...None.