Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Sebastian, FL

DISCUSSION
Issued at 154 PM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

-----------Synoptic Overview-----------

Saturday morning RAOB analysis initialized a 594-dam H5 ridge nestled atop Central Florida, extending from the Bay of Campeche to the subtropical Atlantic. A mid-level trough sits over the Ohio Valley, with additional ridging across the Desert Southwest. The surface ridge axis was centered very close to, or just north, of Central Florida.

14/00Z cluster analysis shows strong agreement in a rather stagnant upper-air pattern across the U.S. through at least the middle of next week, with a ridge persisting over the Sun Belt and quasi-zonal westerlies remaining over the northern half of the nation. A somewhat stronger trough is indicated by some of the members over the Great Lakes by around Thursday or Friday, which may push a weakening cold front into the Deep South. By next weekend, the ridge is forecast to expand northward and become centered over the Mid- Mississippi Valley.

Locally, the near-surface ridge axis should stay very close to Central Florida through much of the next week before moving northward again next weekend. Areas of dry air at 10 KFT (H7) are forecast to be advected from the W Atlantic toward Florida at times over the next week, causing total moisture values to be suppressed near to below normal, especially over the southern half of the state.

The primary outcome from this pattern is the persistence of below- normal rainfall and temperatures near to slightly above normal.

-------Sensible Weather & Impacts-------

This Afternoon - Sunday...

A moisture gradient remains situated over the peninsula, making our I-4 corridor and points north more conducive for late day and evening rain and storm coverage (50-60%) this weekend. However, lower-topped showers with isolated lightning remain a 30-40% possibility along the coast as the sea breeze pushes inland from late morning through mid-afternoon. The ridge overhead has led to weak lapse rates which should limit the risk for strong storms.
Activity lingers longest into the evening over places like Lake County. Hot, muggy days and warm overnights continue - but nothing too noteworthy for mid-June in Central FL.

Monday - Thursday...

Bouts of drier air over the Atlantic make their way across the state, leading to lower coverage of showers and storms than one would typically expect this time of year. We have continued to trend below blended guidance, leaving us with 30-50% chances of rain and storms each day - highest over the interior. Low to mid 90s stick around, with some sea-breeze relief on our barrier islands. Peak heat index values up to 103F over the interior each afternoon, resulting in widespread Moderate HeatRisk, with Major HeatRisk occasionally affecting the Greater Orlando urban corridor. Stay cool by finding shade or A/C and staying hydrated!

Friday - Next Weekend...

A dissipating front well north of Florida has a low chance of concentrating somewhat better moisture over the state and potentially weakening the ridge enough to spark higher chances (50- 60%) for rain/storms especially over the I-4 region next Friday and/or Saturday. EPS and GEFS ensemble means diverge somewhat, with GEFS members supporting a more favorable setup for showers and storms. By late next weekend, surface pressure patterns suggest that storms may favor the western half of the peninsula as southeast flow starts to strengthen again.

Temperatures should remain near to a few degrees above normal.

MARINE
Issued at 154 PM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

A resilient area of high pressure remains centered over the local Atlantic, steering any major weather disturbances well north of the area. Low chances for spotty showers and storms continue over the waters. Behind the daily sea breeze, moderate southeast breezes should be anticipated each day along with generally favorable seas.

SE winds 10-15 KT at the coast each afternoon, becoming S or light SW overnight. Seas 2-3 FT through the period.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 154 PM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

The east coast sea breeze has developed and continues to move west of the coastal terminals early this afternoon. VCSH/VCTS wraps up along the coast around 19Z as the sea breeze pushes further inland, and coverage is then forecast to increase across the interior.
VCSH/VCTS is included at the interior TAF sites through the afternoon with a TEMPO at LEE (23Z/01Z) where confidence in TSRA impacts is highest. While most interior convection should generally dwindle after sunset, showers and isolated storms may linger near LEE through the evening hours. South winds shift east-southeast as the sea breeze passes. Breezy conditions are forecast along the Treasure Coast this afternoon with peak gusts between 20-25 kts.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 74 90 74 91 / 30 50 30 40 MCO 76 93 76 94 / 30 50 30 50 MLB 76 89 76 89 / 20 30 10 40 VRB 74 90 74 90 / 10 20 10 30 LEE 76 91 76 92 / 50 50 30 50 SFB 76 93 75 94 / 40 50 30 50 ORL 77 93 76 93 / 40 50 30 50 FPR 73 89 73 89 / 10 20 10 30

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
AM...None.