Sunday, March29, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Sebastian, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:13AMSunset 7:39PM Sunday March 29, 2020 8:50 PM EDT (00:50 UTC) Moonrise 9:31AMMoonset 11:25PM Illumination 34% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ555 SEbastian Inlet To Jupiter Inlet 0-20 Nm- 322 Pm Edt Sun Mar 29 2020
Tonight..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest 5 to 10 knots towards daybreak. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period 10 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters.
Monday..Southwest winds 5 knots becoming southeast 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 feet with a dominant period 9 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters.
Monday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period 4 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A moderate chop on the intracoastal waters.
Tuesday night..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west 20 to 25 knots after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Rough on the intracoastal waters. Chance of showers after midnight.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming north in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Choppy on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of showers in the morning.
Wednesday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 4 to 5 feet.
Thursday..Northeast winds 10 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet.
Thursday night..Northeast winds 10 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet.
Friday..East winds 10 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet.
AMZ500 Synopsis For Flagler Beach To Jupiter Inlet Out To 60 Nm- 322 Pm Edt Sun Mar 29 2020
Synopsis..A high pressure ridge remains over the local atlantic through tomorrow with seas favorable for small craft operation. A cold front will cross the local waters late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning increasing winds and seas, with poor to hazardous boating conditions lasting through late week.
Gulf stream hazards..None. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Saturday, march 28th. 43 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 30 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 23 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 14 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 9 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sebastian, FL
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location: 27.81, -80.47     debug


Area Discussion for - Melbourne, FL
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FXUS62 KMLB 291911 AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 311 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2020

DISCUSSION.

. Heat Will Continue Through Tuesday, Followed by a Cold Front .

. Fire Sensitivity Expected to Increase Further on Tuesday as Southwest Winds Increase .

Tonight . Southeast flow around the Atlantic ridge will allow the east coast sea breeze to move inland through late afternoon and meet up with the west coast breeze near I 4 across the interior this evening. The strong mid level ridge aloft is providing subsidence with hardly any cumulus at mid afternoon so may only see some struggling cumulus along any collision this evening. Like this morning there may be some patchy fog and stratus development that would be favored mainly along and west of I-4 late tonight. Lows will drop to 65-70 about 8-10 degrees above normal for late March.

Monday . A weak trough across the northern peninsula Monday morning will dissipate with the surface ridge still in control across central FL. A light and variable wind flow is expected in the morning becoming onshore near the coast by afternoon with the east coast sea breeze which will move steadily inland. After some patchy morning fog/stratus across the interior, expect mostly sunny skies into the afternoon and dry conditions. Highs will reach the mid 80s near the coast to the lower 90s across the interior. Max temps in Sanford and Leesburg have a good chance to be tied or broken on Monday (see climate section below).

Tuesday-Wednesday . Atlantic ridge gradually shift S-SE to offshore SEFL Tuesday ahead of an approaching cold front that reaches the northern CWA a few hours after midnight, and then sweep rapidly southeast through central FL, moving offshore Wednesday morning.

Since the supporting mid level trough stays bodily north of the state (let alone the CWA), local mid level PVA is essentially nil ahead of the impending frontal passage. While there is some modest upper level divergence, and wind fields are decent, frontal convergence is considerably weak. The chance of seeing thunderstorms in the area is so small given the overall paucity of forced ascent, marginal instability, and nocturnal timing. Thus, will continue to keep thunderstorms out of the forecast, but subsequent shifts will re-assess potential.

Rain chances came in a bit lower this afternoon, in the 30-35 percent range across the area for Tuesday night. This follows the all too familiar trend of weakening fronts moving through central FL. A slight chance of showers lingers along the Treasure Coast into Wednesday morning, with clearing conditions by early afternoon.

Near record late March temps continue with upper 80s to low 90s areawide Tuesday in an increasing pre-frontal southwest breeze, and morning lows in the mid/upper 60s, around 70F in some locations. Cooler/drier air takes hold areawide Wednesday into Wednesday night, albeit afternoon highs will still be above normal for all but the northern CWA around 80F north to upper 80s around Lake Okeechobee. Temps cool to the mid/upper 50s inland, low 60s along the coast as post-frontal winds will start to acquire an onshore component.

Thursday-Sunday . (previous discussion) Model guidance indicates short wave ridging slowly rebuilding from the GOMEX toward FL as weak ripples of mid level vorticity ride over the top, and across FL. Increasing mean moisture and warm-frontogenetic type lift should lead to an increasing in clouds and rain chances, with a conservative 20-30 POP introduced at this time for the Friday night to Sunday time frame.

Near-normal max temps on Thursday (upper 70s to low 80s) will rise just slightly above normal (low 80s all but the immediate coast) from Friday onward. Morning lows in the upper 50s inland Thursday night, otherwise low 60s, with low/mid 60s for the coastal counties, and upper 60s along the barrier islands.

AVIATION. Some patchy stratus may develop late tonight mainly west of KMCO- KDAB line. For now, included TEMPO SCT clouds below 010 and some MVFR BR for interior terminals mainly btwn 09z-13z Otherwise. VFR through the period.

MARINE. Tonight . SE flow 10-15 knots this evening will veer to the SW overnight. Dry conditions with seas 2-3 ft.

Monday . A good boating forecast is in offing to start the week. Light offshore flow in Mon morning will become onshore near the coast to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas will average around 2 ft.

Tuesday-Friday . Favorable boating conditions last through around Tuesday afternoon before turning hazardous Tuesday night behind a cold front. Seas 2-3 feet Tuesday with southwest winds 10-15 knots and up to 20 knots offshore. A surge of west winds 15-20 knots nearshore and 20-25 knots offshore overspread the area behind the cold front. Seas respond by building to 6-7 feet. This strong surge will be short-lived, though north winds 15-20 knots and seas 4-6 feet last through late Wednesday night keeping seas hazardous. By Thursday into Friday, winds veer northeast and decrease to 10-15 knots, however small craft exercise caution with a lingering swell around 5-7 feet.

FIRE WEATHER. Hot and dry conditions continue into Mon, with min RH values falling to the upper 30s to low 40s over much of the interior. Lighter surface and transport winds outside of the east coast sea breeze circulation.

Increasing surface and transport from the southwest Tue ahead of the approaching cold front will exacerbate fire weather sensitivity, as min RH values at or below 45 pct.

CLIMATE. (previous)

Leesburg and Sanford should exceed their record highs for today, as temperatures rise into the low 90s this afternoon. Daytona Beach and Orlando will also be near their record highs for today.

Site Date Record Date Record Date Record /Year /Year /Year DAB 3/29 90-1991 3/30 91-1939 3/31 90-1954 LEE 3/29 90-1991 3/30 91-1991 3/31 88-2016 SFB 3/29 91-1994 3/30 91-2000 3/31 92-1970 MCO 3/29 95-1920 3/30 97-1907 3/31 95-1907 MLB 3/29 90-1974 3/30 92-1975 3/31 91-1954 VRB 3/29 91-1997 3/30 91-2011 3/31 90-1975 FPR 3/29 92-1929 3/30 91-2011 3/31 90-1993

. March 2020 Stats/Rankings .

With well above normal temperatures continuing through the rest of the month, we are on track for the warmest March on record for Daytona Beach, Leesburg, Sanford and Orlando.

It should also be the driest March on record for much of the area. However, isolated to scattered showers are currently forecast ahead of an approaching weak cold front into the evening of the 31st, so any additional rainfall before midnight on Tuesday evening could change these current rankings.

. March 2020 Average Temperature (Through March 28th):

Site: Avg. Temp: Ranking (Top 10):

Daytona Beach 70.3 (+6.1) Warmest (Record: 70.1/1945) Leesburg 73.3 (+7.7) Warmest (Record: 72.3/2012) Sanford 72.9 (+6.6) Warmest (Record: 72.3/2003) Orlando 73.4 (+6.7) 2nd Warmest (Record: 73.7/1907) Melbourne 70.8 (+5.1) 7th Warmest (Ties 1974) Vero Beach 72.1 (+4.9) 5th Warmest Ft. Pierce 70.8 (+3.9) -

. March 2020 Total Rainfall (Through March 28th):

Site: Rainfall: Ranking (Top 10):

Daytona Beach 0.02" (-3.82") Driest (Record: 0.08"/2006) Leesburg Trace (-4.04") Driest (Record: 0.04"/2006) Sanford 0.03" (-3.74") 2nd Driest (Record: T/2006) Orlando 0.02" (-3.36") T-Driest (Record: 0.02"/2006) Melbourne 0.03" (-2.95") T-Driest (Record: 0.03"/1956) Vero Beach 0.02" (-3.70") Driest (Record: 0.09"/1956) Ft. Pierce 0.02" (-3.31") Driest (Record: 0.19"/1917)

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. DAB 65 86 67 88 / 0 0 10 10 MCO 68 92 68 89 / 0 0 0 10 MLB 66 86 69 88 / 0 0 0 10 VRB 65 87 67 90 / 0 0 0 10 LEE 69 92 69 88 / 0 0 0 20 SFB 68 91 68 90 / 0 0 0 10 ORL 71 92 69 89 / 0 0 0 10 FPR 64 87 66 89 / 0 0 0 10

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . None. AM . None.

SHORT TERM/AVIATION . Volkmer MID-LONG TERM . Rodriguez


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SIPF1 4 mi36 min SSE 14 76°F 75°F1021 hPa
41113 - Cape Canaveral Nearshore, FL (143) 41 mi21 min 77°F2 ft
TRDF1 - 8721604 - Trident Pier, FL 42 mi51 min SE 9.9 G 14 76°F 79°F1020.6 hPa (+0.3)
41009 - CANAVERAL 20 NM East of Cape Canaveral, FL 51 mi31 min SSE 12 G 16 77°F 76°F1020.4 hPa71°F
LKWF1 - 8722670 - Lake Worth, FL 86 mi57 min SE 8 G 9.9 77°F 78°F1019.2 hPa

Wind History for Trident Pier, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Vero Beach, Vero Beach Municipal Airport, FL11 mi58 minSE 1210.00 miFair78°F69°F74%1019.6 hPa
Fort Pierce, St. Lucie County International Airport, FL22 mi58 minSE 1010.00 miFair77°F68°F74%1019.7 hPa
Melbourne International Airport, FL22 mi58 minSE 1110.00 miFair77°F71°F82%1019.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KVRB

Wind History from VRB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE11SE10SE8S7--S5S5S4W3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm--SE11SE13SE14SE13SE15SE16SE16SE14SE12
1 day agoSE9SE9--SE8SE10SE7S3W4CalmCalm--CalmCalmS6--SE12SE13SE15SE16
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2 days agoE7E10--E10E9E8SE6SE5W5CalmCalmCalmSE9SE11SE11SE11SE12SE12SE14SE12E13SE12E10SE11

Tide / Current Tables for Sebastian, Indian River, Florida
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Sebastian
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:44 AM EDT     0.15 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:14 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:54 AM EDT     -0.06 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 10:30 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 02:14 PM EDT     0.07 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:38 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:37 PM EDT     -0.16 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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00.10.10.10.10.10-0-0.1-0.1-0.1-000.10.10.10-0-0.1-0.1-0.2-0.2-0.1-0.1

Tide / Current Tables for Vero Beach (ocean), Florida
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Vero Beach (ocean)
Click for Map
Sun -- 05:32 AM EDT     0.50 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:14 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:30 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 11:28 AM EDT     3.07 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:46 PM EDT     0.07 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:37 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.32.92.31.50.90.60.50.91.42.12.7332.721.30.60.20.10.30.91.72.42.9

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Melbourne, FL (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Melbourne, FL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.