Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Port Aransas, TX

DISCUSSION
Issued at 523 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

Before the arrival of our next cold front this weekend, temperatures will warm to above average values by mid-week. Rain chances will return Tuesday (30-40% areawide) and peak Wednesday(20-30% Brush Country; 40-70% Coastal Plains and Victoria Crossroads) before quickly tapering off Wednesday night. Although rain chances will be high in some areas, drought busting rain is not expected. Forecast storm total accumulations are generally 0.50" or less, with only a low chance for totals up to 1.00".

Now that we got that out of the way, lets talk about the main course, the meat and potatoes. A strong cold front is anticipated to arrive this weekend. We are confident that freezing temperatures will return to South Texas, with temperatures likely dropping into the 20s. What we will need to iron out during the coming days is what (if any) other impacts could we experience. Ahead of the front, a shortwave trough over the Baja Peninsula will advect anomalously high pacific moisture from the southwest. What we don't know is if the moisture and freezing temperatures will align. While some models hint at winter precipitation across portions of South Texas, confidence is still low on any solution. We are still 6 days out in the forecast, meaning model trends still have time to evolve. We will have a better idea of what to expect within the next 36 to 48 hours as the event will enter the domain of the short term models and eventually the hi-res models. Please continue to check back daily for the latest updates.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 207 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

Before the arrival of our next cold front this weekend, temperatures will warm to above average values by mid-week. Rain chances will return Tuesday (30-40% areawide) and peak Wednesday(20-30% Brush Country; 40-70% Coastal Plains and Victoria Crossroads) before quickly tapering off Wednesday night. Although rain chances will be high in some areas, drought busting rain is not expected. Forecast storm total accumulations are generally 0.50" or less, with only a low chance for totals up to 1.00".

Now that we got that out of the way, lets talk about the main course, the meat and potatoes. A strong cold front is anticipated to arrive this weekend. We are confident that freezing temperatures will return to South Texas, with temperatures likely dropping into the 20s. What we will need to iron out during the coming days is what (if any) other impacts could we experience. Ahead of the front, a shortwave trough over the Baja Peninsula will advect anomalously high pacific moisture from the southwest. What we don't know is if the moisture and freezing temperatures will align. While some models hint at winter precipitation across portions of South Texas, confidence is still low on any solution. We are still 6 days out in the forecast, meaning model trends still have time to evolve. We will have a better idea of what to expect within the next 36 to 48 hours as the event will enter the domain of the short term models and eventually the hi-res models. Please continue to check back daily for the latest updates.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 523 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

VFR conditions will prevail tonight with MVFR CIGs developing tomorrow morning. Light and variable winds tonight become easterly tomorrow afternoon, sustained around 10 knots or less.

MARINE
Issued at 207 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

A moderate to fresh (BF 4-5) southeast breeze is expected to continue through the end of the work week before our next cold front arrives next weekend. Low chances (25-35%) for rain are expected Tuesday and Thursday with higher chances (50-90%) Tuesday night through Wednesday night, mainly over the Gulf waters.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 207 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

Minimum relative humidity values will begin to increase today as the winds shift to the south moisture starts to pool in. Minimum relative humidity values tomorrow are expected to be above 50% and remain above critical values for the rest of the week, with light to moderate winds. Therefore, elevated fire weather conditions are not expected.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Corpus Christi 55 68 60 73 / 0 20 30 50 Victoria 47 66 55 71 / 0 10 40 60 Laredo 55 66 56 72 / 0 20 40 20 Alice 51 68 56 74 / 0 20 30 50 Rockport 55 68 59 70 / 0 20 40 60 Cotulla 50 64 54 71 / 0 10 30 10 Kingsville 52 69 58 73 / 0 20 30 50 Navy Corpus 60 68 63 70 / 0 30 40 60

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
GM...None.