Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Feather Sound, FL

DISCUSSION
Issued at 259 PM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025

Thunderstorms have been rapidly developing across the region over the last hour. The 12Z sounding came in with a PWAT of 2.00 inches, which is well above the 90th percentile for the day. With that much moisture and ample instability, storms have been developing in areas with no boundaries to enhance forcing. Thus, activity has rapidly increased over the interior, despite the sea breeze still being near the coast.

Activity is expected to continue developing through the remainder of the afternoon and into the evening as boundaries collide and instability remains high. With the mean flow being almost nonexistent, storms won't move much. Thus, localized areas could see heavy rainfall that caused minor flooding, particularly in urbanized areas that are low-lying and/or have poor drainage.

This pattern will stick around for the next couple days. As long as the ridge axis remains situated directly over the area (which it is), the flow will remain light, the moisture content high, and scattered to numerous thunderstorms should be expected. Eventually (i.e. later this weekend and into early next week), it looks like the ridge may slide back east a bit. There could also be a reduction, at least slightly, in the overall moisture content in the atmosphere. Currently, the forecast is reflecting a slight decrease in response to this possibility.

However, there will still be enough to support scattered thunderstorms. With an ESE flow returning, the west coast will still remain favored to see the highest coverage late in the day as well.
Temperatures will get a little warmer, however, in response to the drier air and later activity that is expected. Overall, though weather conditions will continue to be fairly typical for summertime through the next week.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 735 PM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Shower/thunderstorm activity across southwest Florida is slowly pushing west and offshore. However, areas of light rain/shower activity will linger for a few more hours at PGD/FMY/RSW with predominately VFR CIGs /VSBYs...but can't rule out a brief heavier shower that may briefly create MVFR CIGs /VSBYs and possibly an isolated rumble of thunder. Decreasing cloudiness will occur at all terminals overnight...with northern terminals likely clearing earlier and southern terminals later overnight...with skies becoming partly cloudy. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will develop over the coastal waters late tonight and may move locally onshore around sunrise mainly vcnty SRQ/PIE.

MARINE
Issued at 259 PM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025

Light winds and seas are expected over the next couple days, but will generally be out of the S to SSW. Generally, winds should not exceed 10 to 15 knots, with seas of 1 to 2 feet continuing in response. Thunderstorms will be most likely overnight and through the morning hours, with higher winds and seas in the vicinity.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 259 PM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025

Atmospheric moisture content will remain very high for the next couple days, with numerous showers and thunderstorms expected during the afternoon and evening. There are no fire weather concerns through the weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 78 91 78 93 / 40 60 40 50 FMY 75 92 75 94 / 60 50 20 60 GIF 76 92 75 94 / 50 70 20 50 SRQ 76 90 76 92 / 50 60 40 50 BKV 72 92 72 94 / 40 60 40 50 SPG 78 89 78 91 / 40 50 40 50

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 8 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 2

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https:// www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.