FXUS62 KTBW 071750 AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 150 PM EDT Sat Sep 7 2024

New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER

DISCUSSION
Issued at 147 PM EDT Sat Sep 7 2024

A large trough axis extends from the Great Lakes Region down through the Mid-Atlantic and off the East Coast of Florida. Stretched out behind this low, a stationary boundary is situated across North Florida, with scattered showers and thunderstorms over the Northern Gulf through the Big Bend region of Florida. Weak high pressure is dominating south of this boundary, with a light WSW flow in place the surface.

The sea breeze is only just beginning to develop, with enough moisture and instability in place to support some convection.
However, there is a decreasing moisture gradient, especially over the Eastern Gulf and adjacent central Florida coast. Water vapor satellite imagery also shows a pocket of drier air to the south, which is being advected to the NE towards the FL peninsula in response to the SW flow. Overall, this setup favors lower rain chances for this afternoon and evening along the coast; but the boundary collisions and moisture pooling across the interior should still yield scattered to numerous storms, mainly across Polk, Hardee, DeSoto and Highlands counties. SWFL is also favored for higher rain chances as the slightly more SE low-level flow should keep additional moisture in play, mainly across the eastern half of Charlotte and Lee Counties.

As the parent low lifts northward, the subtropical ridge will build back in and the flow will return to the more prevalent ESE flow that has persisted for much of the last couple months. However, the stationary boundary, as the name implies, will persist. By the middle of the week, it looks to sink a little further south to around the Bay Area. Should this be realized, the deep moisture axis will be directly overhead, with widespread shower and thunderstorm activity, and elevated concerns for heavy rainfall to lead to flooding.

Regardless of the exact specifics, today and tomorrow are favored to be the driest days, although far from completely dry. At least scattered storms will persist each day, with warm and muggy weather typical of a summertime pattern continuing.
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