Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Aransas Pass, TX

LONG TERM
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 135 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

Key Messages:

- Summer-like temperatures continue through Tuesday, with a Heat Risk approaching the Major/Extreme Categories across the Brush Country.

- A frontal passage on Tuesday will reduce the heat risk.

Upper ridge influence continues to bring summer-like temperatures across South Texas Tuesday. Combined with Gulf-rich moisture, heat indices have a high-likelihood of remaining above 105F across much of South Texas. Across the western Brush Country and along the Rio Grande, a dry line passage will lower minimum relative humidity ranges to 10-20% range, resulting in an elevated fire risk Monday afternoon.

By Tuesday, an upper level trough over the Intermountain West will begin lifting as it moves into the Central Plains. At the surface, this translates to a frontal passage throughout Central and South Texas, switching winds from southerly to N/NE'ly. Ensemble models continue to place the southern extent of >20% PoPs from Central Texas, and to the north, Tuesday through Wednesday. The next best chance for rain is actually located more along a lee trough forming along the Sierra Madre Oriental. As of this forecast, this still keeps most of South Texas under 15% PoPs, so confidence for Wednesday-Friday rainfall is low.

Post front Wednesday still brings highs at or above 100F across the Rio Grande Plains/Brush Country through the upcoming weekend.
Elsewhere, highs will remains in the 90s except along the immediate coastline.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

Expect any MVFR ceilings to become VFR across South Texas over the next few hours. Accompanied by gusty south/southeast winds up to around 20-25 knots. Similar conditions expected overnight tonight through the end of this TAF period with MVFR conditions at COT VFR for LRD and IFR conditions across VCT/CRP/ALI. Lower ceilings that develop tomorrow morning will slowly give way to VFR CIGs through the afternoon hours.

MARINE
Issued at 135 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

Moderate to fresh onshore flow with 4-5 ft seas will persist through Monday morning, with bays and nearshore waters having strong (BF 5)
wind gusts Monday afternoon along with seas increasing to 5-6 ft.
Tuesday, winds will become more gentle longshore flow from the northeast through Thursday with seas decreasing through Friday down to 3-4 ft.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Corpus Christi 77 91 78 90 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 75 92 76 92 / 0 0 0 0 Laredo 79 105 79 104 / 10 0 0 0 Alice 76 98 77 97 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 78 88 79 88 / 0 0 0 0 Cotulla 79 105 78 104 / 10 10 10 0 Kingsville 77 95 77 95 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 79 86 79 86 / 0 0 0 0

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
GM...None.