Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Aransas Pass, TX

DISCUSSION
Issued at 147 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Deeper moisture has begun to spread across South Texas ahead of a broad area of low pressure just offshore of eastern Mexico. While NHC continues to indicate only a low chance (20%) for tropical development of this low through the next seven days, the plume of moisture will significantly increase rain chances across the region through the next several days. Mid-level ridging will remain in place through much of today, but PWATs are expected to climb into the 2.0-2.5 inch range (~2.25 inches already per today's 18Z CRP sounding), supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly across the eastern half of the CWA Temperatures today will remain hot with highs generally in the 90s inland, and elevated humidity will support heat index values between 100-105 degrees.

Rain chances are expected to increase even further Sunday through Tuesday as that tropical moisture continues to deepen and a mid-to upper-level trough digging across the Plains pushes a weak frontal boundary south. The combination of the frontal boundary, abundant tropical moisture, and increasing large-scale ascent will support widespread showers and thunderstorms across much of the region.
Forecast soundings indicate a highly efficient rainfall environment with saturated profiles, deep warm cloud layers, and long, skinny instability profiles.

Current guidance generally supports rainfall amounts of 2-4 inches across portions of South Texas through midweek, with locally higher totals up to 4-7 inches possible where repeated rounds of convection or training thunderstorms develop. Localized flash flooding will remain possible, especially in urban corridors, low-lying areas, and locations with poor drainage. WPC continues to highlight most of South Texas in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Excessive Rainfall Sunday and Tuesday and has introduced a broad Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) for Monday.

By mid-to-late week, rainfall chances should gradually diminish as the deepest moisture and strongest forcing shift eastward and the mid-level ridge begins to rebuild. However, lingering moisture will support scattered diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and early evening hours heading into next weekend.
Temperatures may trend slightly cooler during the wetter portion of the forecast due to increased cloud cover and precipitation, but high temperatures will rebound into the 90s by Thursday, accompanied by increasing heat indices and a renewed moderate to major heat risk across portions of area as the ridge rebuilds.

As far as coastal hazards go, long-period swells around 7-8 seconds and seas of 5-7 feet combined with astronomically higher tides due to the new moon phase on Sunday will lead to hazardous marine and beach conditions. This includes a heightened risk for rip currents and minor coastal flooding concerns during times of high tide this weekend.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 102 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Tonight expecting MVFR/VFR conditions to prevail with a few isolated showers. Tomorrow morning rain and thunderstorm chances increase to around 45% out west and 65-75% across eastern terminals through the afternoon and tapering off by evening. Low rain chances around 25-35% during the overnight hours. Accompanied by MVFR conditions. Looking ahead Sunday through Tuesday, there's a Slight risk for excessive rainfall and flash flooding across most of South Texas terminals, this includes a 15% chance for excessive rainfall Sunday, increasing to around a 25% chance Monday and Tuesday.



MARINE
Issued at 147 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

A moderate to fresh (BF 4-5) onshore flow will persist through the period with seas of 5-7 feet in response to a long east-southeast fetch across the Gulf from a broad area of low pressure located over the Bay of Campeche. Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions are currently in place, with Small Craft Advisory conditions likely developing over our far offshore waters later this evening.
Therefore, an Advisory has been issued from 00-12Z Sunday. In addition to the adverse hazardous marine conditions, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected through midweek next week, with locally heavy rainfall, frequent lightning, and brief gusty winds possible in and around any stronger storms. Small Craft should Exercise Caution conditions will continue early next week, with Small Craft Advisory conditions likely again during the second half of the week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Corpus Christi 78 88 78 85 / 80 80 80 80 Victoria 77 88 75 85 / 80 80 90 90 Laredo 77 91 75 86 / 40 70 90 80 Alice 77 88 75 84 / 60 90 90 90 Rockport 82 90 80 87 / 80 80 90 80 Cotulla 76 90 74 86 / 50 80 90 70 Kingsville 77 87 76 84 / 60 90 90 90 Navy Corpus 82 88 81 86 / 80 80 80 80

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...High Rip Current Risk through Monday morning for TXZ345-442-443- 447.

Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for TXZ345- 442-443-447.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ270- 275.