Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Nogales, AZ

KEY MESSAGES

- Major Heat Impacts today and through Monday. Extreme Heat Warning is in effect until Monday evening. Thursday may see another Major Risk for heat.

- Isolated Dry Lightning chances (10 percent) Sunday afternoon in southeast Cochise County. Gusty and erratic wind gusts is possible.

- Near critical to brief critical fire weather conditions possible across the Gila River Valley in Graham county Monday and Tuesday. Stronger breezes expected on Tuesday.


DISCUSSION
High pressure is over the Desert Southwest which will continue to bring very hot temperatures across the region today and through Monday. Temperatures will generally be 102 to 109 today and a few more degree hotter tomorrow with Tucson peaking at 112 degrees. This raises the HeatRisk for the region into the Major category and the overnight temperatures only coming down in the mid 70s for the areas Tucson west and upper 60s areas east. Very little relief in the heat and as result an Extreme Heat Warning is in effect for the rest of today and through Monday evening. Stay hydrated; limit time outside in the hottest part of the day, if possible; stay cool with a/c; and check on love ones and neighbors! Resources: pima.gov/extremeheat (Cooling Center locations) and weather.gov/tucson

There is a slight nudge of upper air moisture that can result in high based dry thunderstorms on Sunday. A handful of convective allowing models show a potential, although very small, for some cloud build ups in Cochise County. The confidence is low, but a non-zero chance for a dry lighting on Sunday afternoon. Model skew-ts have the inverted V, but dry profile, for thunderstorm gusty winds. HRRR agrees as well on the thunderstorm gusts; it has 30 percent chance for thunderstorm gusts greater than 34 miles per hour after 2 pm. The highest probability for any dry thunderstorm will be 10 percent in the southeastern corner of Cochise County and towards the Chiricahua Mountains.

A weak trough will be passing through later Monday and into Tuesday. This will knock daytime temperatures by few degrees and bringing the risk for heat down into the Moderate category by Tuesday and Wednesday. This trough will bring stronger breezes and increasing the risk for fire weather conditions especially in the Gila River Valley area on tuesday. The latest NBM has 40-46% chance for wind gusts to exceed 40 mph. Thus, coupled with the dry conditions can result in critical fire weather conditions. SPC Fire Weather has highlighted this risk as well.

In the late week, another hot day can be expected on Thursday with increasing risk for heat. Heat headlines may follow soon if the trend stays elevated. Then, monsoonal moisture will be slowly creeping in and out to give a push for chances of precipitation later in the following weekend.

AVIATION
Valid through 16/00Z.
SKC through much of the period with FEW-SCT 10-12k ft AGL mainly SE of KTUS between 14/20z and 15/05Z and again after 15/20z. A few cloud build ups to towering cumulus can occur near the Chiricahua Mountains between 15/20Z until 16/03Z. SFC winds WLY/NWLY at 8-12 kts with gusts to around 20 kts and 12-16 kts with gusts to 25 kts at KSAD. SFC winds will be stronger tomorrow afternoon, 16/18Z, especially near KSAD. Otherwise, overnight winds will be terrain driven and less than 10 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.



FIRE WEATHER
Dry and hot conditions are expected across southeast Arizona through early next week. Generally single digit min RH values in the valleys, with mountain locations in the 10-18 percent range. There are slight chances (less than 10 percent)
for dry lightning Sunday afternoon in Southeast Cochise County.
These dry lightning chances can also bring erratic and gusty winds of 30 mph or higher. Otherwise, 20-foot winds will be 15 mph or less from Tucson westward, with occasional afternoon/early evening gusts to around 20 mph due to the strong surface heating.
East of Tucson, breezy afternoon and early evening 20-foot winds are expected in the Gila River Valley on Sunday with peak wind speeds of 12-18 mph and gusts to around 30 mph. Expect similar to slightly stronger speeds from Tucson eastward Monday and Tuesday as a weak weather system moves through. The strongest winds will again be in the upper Gila River valley near Safford, with the possibility of a few hours of near critical to brief critical fire weather conditions.



TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM MST Monday for AZZ501>509.