Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Town 'n' Country, FL

UPDATE
Issued at 822 AM EDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Starting out with some more mid and high clouds again this morning, but these will thin out and with daytime heating we'll begin to see convection pop up around midday/early afternoon. The west to northwest flow across the region will favor the highest coverage of showers and thunderstorms over the interior and eastern half of the Florida peninsula this afternoon and evening, with isolated to low end scattered closer to the west coast.
Overall the current forecast looks on track with no updates needed.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 822 AM EDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon into this evening which could affect TPA, LAL, PGD, FMY, and RSW causing some MVFR/local IFR conditions. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail with light winds early this morning becoming west to northwest at 6 to 10 knots late this morning into early this evening, then become light and variable again.
A few showers and thunderstorms will be possible late tonight into Thursday morning around the Tampa Bay areas.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 238 AM EDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Lingering convection in SW FL expected to continue to slowly wane with clearing conditions for the morning commute.

Weak upper TUTT over Cuba continues to wrap a combination of dry air aloft but also a few embedded upper impulses that have been producing isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. This feature is expected to meander over the region through the week At the surface, a stalled frontal boundary is expected to wash out in the Deep South keeping weak ridging across the S FL Peninsula and SE Gulf. A general W-WNW flow will persist through the week as with convection near coastal areas during the morning then shifting inland late afternoon and evening. Some storms may be strong with gusty winds, brief heavy rainfall and frequent lightning. Temp to remain hot and humid with daily heat index values in the triple digits but below heat advisory criteria.

Guidance continues to indicate troughing along the eastern U.S.
seaboard into the E Gulf this weekend and into early next week with increasing moisture and higher rain chances to the area.

MARINE
Issued at 238 AM EDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Weak high pressure over the region will keep the west to northwest flow over the eastern Gulf waters through the week with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. The flow may increase late in the week with slightly elevated, choppy, and short period seas into the weekend.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 238 AM EDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Weak high pressure will remain over the region keeping the warm and humid summertime conditions in place. Isolated to scattered mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorm are expected each day with gusty erratic winds and frequent lightning possible.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 93 81 93 82 / 10 10 10 20 FMY 97 78 97 79 / 20 10 10 10 GIF 96 76 95 77 / 20 10 20 20 SRQ 94 80 95 81 / 10 10 20 20 BKV 94 76 94 77 / 20 20 20 30 SPG 93 81 94 82 / 10 10 10 20

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 8 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 8

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https:// www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.