Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Indialantic, FL

UPDATE
Issued at 853 PM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025

Lingering showers have steadily dissipated after late afternoon collision of the east and west coast sea breezes. Thus, have lowered evening PoPs to 20-30% across the forecast area. No further changes necessary.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
Issued at 243 PM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025

Currently...Some subtle erosion of the ridge axis extending from the Atlantic to the Florida peninsula resulted in flow slightly west of south this morning, which slowed inland progression of the east coast sea breeze a little. In addition, the environment across the North Florida peninsula has become more favorable for convection, allowing storms to develop on the west coast sea breeze prior to noon, with outflow from these storms already moving through East Central Florida, initiating additional storms. All these factors combined mean earlier storm chances for the Orlando metro area, and a sea breeze collision closer to the coastal counties.

Rest of Today-Tonight...Ridging aloft, as well as the surface high previously mentioned, erodes as the base of a mid-level trough swings into North Florida. GOES satellite imagery shows PWATs increasing to around 2" ahead of the trough, supporting this morning's initial convection, with lower values of 1.6-1.7" down south were even showers on the east coast sea breeze have struggled so far. Expect the current convection to push eastward across the northern counties, including the Orlando Metro Area, through the rest of the afternoon, reaching the east coast sea breeze in Coastal Volusia/Brevard around 3-4 PM, causing additional shower and storm development southward along the sea breeze through around 6-7 PM, then gradually dissipating. Primary storm hazards continue to be gusty winds to 50 mph, frequent cloud to ground lightning, and locally heavy rainfall. There is some uncertainty how well convection will perform once it outruns the higher moisture and trough, and indeed at least so far storms north of the area (better environment) have performed better than those that have moved into ECFL. Despite the earlier start to showers and storms, most locations should still reach afternoon highs in the L-M90s.

Friday-Saturday...(Modified Previous Discussion) Higher moisture remains over the peninsula, as does perhaps a bit of upper level energy, as the trough departs and ridging begins to build over the south to eastern CONUS. The surface ridge axis extending towards Florida from the Atlantic remains weakened, resulting in southerly to maybe south-southwesterly flow again, so will need to be on the look out for a repeat of the east coast sea breeze slowing, and an early start to storms on the west coast sea breeze. At the moment CAMs depict near equally paced sea breezes, becoming active with showers and storms after noon, but NBM PoPs and the official forecast favor a repeat of early west coast storms pushing across the peninsula in the early afternoon. Ultimately rain chances are nearly the same, it's a question of timing, which there is currently low confidence in. Again, gusty winds to around 50 mph, frequent lightning, and locally heavy rain will be the primary concerns with stronger storms. A downward trend in activity after sunset can be anticipated with showers lingering through as late as 10-11 PM. Outside of convection, temperatures will reach the low 90s with heat indices 100-105 degrees. Keep this in mind for any plans to be outside for any period of time, as adequate hydration and cooling will be important to avoid any heat stress or heat-related illness.

A bit of a change in the pattern is introduced on Saturday when PWs fall closer to 1.6". Forecast soundings reflect an overall drying through the atmospheric column as ridging builds over the eastern CONUS, so it is no surprise that deterministic guidance has backed off on coverage of afternoon showers/storms. Continue to temper NBM rain chances a bit by blending in global guidance, coming in around 30-50 percent areawide. As predominant surface flow becomes southeasterly Saturday afternoon, quicker inland push of the east coast sea breeze shifts the higher rain chances inland and to the western side of the peninsula. Due to the lower rain chances, afternoon highs tick back up a degree or so Saturday afternoon into the low- mid 90s. However, a reduction in moisture will limit heat index values to the 100-103 range.

Sunday-Wednesday...(Previous Discussion) Onshore winds each day (10-15 mph, gusting around 20 mph) will become a main feature of the late weekend/next week forecast, as high pressure builds and becomes centered over the TN/OH Valleys. Drier air looks to rotate around the southern edge of this high through at least the middle of next week, keeping PWs near or under 1.5" (especially beyond Monday). The NBM seems to be holding onto its extended range high bias with regard to rain chances, so deterministic consensus was blended in to flatten values into the 30-50 percent range. Higher rain chances will be associated with the afternoon sea breeze moving quickly westward, so locations near/west of Lake Okeechobee to Orlando/Leesburg (far interior) will be best positioned to see rain, if any at all. If model guidance continues to trend drier, it would not be surprising to see these 30-50 percent values lowered even more.

This also means that daily highs in the low-mid 90s are here to stay, with the sea breeze as the lone mechanism to providing any relief from the heat. Individuals sensitive to this level of heat and those spending extended periods of time outside (1-2+ hours)
should be sure to stay well hydrated and take frequent breaks in the A/C or shade. Overnight lows retreat into the 70s each night as wind speeds fall to 5 mph or less. In summary, next week appears to bring continued above-normal temperatures and less in the way of rain chances.

MARINE
Issued at 243 PM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025

Generally favorable boating conditions. A weakened ridge axis from high pressure over the Atlantic extending towards Florida lifts north of the area into the weekend, then further erodes early next week. With a weak pressure gradient, flow at 5-10 kts gradually veers from southerly today and Friday to easterly by Monday. As the sea breeze develops each afternoon, winds back a bit and increase to 10-15 kts through the late evening. Highest storm chances remain inland, but isolated showers and storms will be possible over the Atlantic waters. Seas 1-3 ft.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 752 PM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025

A rather uneventful collision of the east and west coast sea breezes occurred around 20-22Z this afternoon, with storms completely clearing all terminals by 23Z. Lingering showers along a corridor from KDAB to KISM will lead to lower ceilings which should lift within the next few hours. A stronger east coast sea breeze will form by 16-17Z tomorrow, with isolated showers and storms initially at the coast north of TIX. The larger collision with the west coast sea breeze is more likely west of MCO tomorrow, so have continued VCTS for interior terminals from 18-21Z, with addition of TEMPOs in subsequent updates. VFR outside of convective activity.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 73 89 73 90 / 20 40 20 30 MCO 74 92 74 93 / 30 60 20 40 MLB 75 89 75 89 / 20 30 10 30 VRB 73 90 73 90 / 10 20 10 30 LEE 75 92 74 93 / 30 70 30 40 SFB 74 92 74 93 / 30 50 20 30 ORL 75 92 74 93 / 30 60 20 40 FPR 72 90 73 89 / 10 20 10 30

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
AM...None.