Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Tarpon Springs, FL

DISCUSSION
Issued at 310 PM EST Mon Jan 20 2025

A longwave trough axis is influencing weather across the entire E CONUS. The associated cold front is over the Florida Straights and northern Cuba, with a breezy northerly flow continuing to advect in a cooler and drier airmass across the Florida peninsula.
Simultaneously, a new area of low pressure is beginning to develop in the Western Gulf of Mexico. Quickly beginning to organize this afternoon and evening, this will force the cold front to begin lifting back north as a warm front tonight, creating a setup favorable for warm, moist air to advect in above a cooler low-level airmass. This setup is favorable for an overrunning precipitation event.

As such, there is an increasing chance for rain in the forecast beginning this evening for SWFL, and spreading farther north into the Tampa Bay area towards morning. As the low approaches the FL West Coast tomorrow evening, rain chances increase areawide.
Widespread rain is likely tomorrow night across the entire area.
Overall accumulations look to be on the lower side, however, as the atmosphere will not be particularly conducive or saturated for heavy rain. What is most likely is a light rain, only leading to accumulations of a half an inch or less.

However, winds are not forecast to veer, suggesting a cool airmass will remain at the surface. With cool temperatures, it is shaping up to be a pretty miserable period from later tonight through Wednesday morning when the low finally clears to the west. Winds are likely to become pretty strong over the coastal waters especially, with gusts to Gale force possible.

This northerly flow will also continue to support cold air advection at the surface, suggesting Wednesday morning will still be cold. In Northern Levy County, there is a 30% chance that freezing rain could occur in a window of time from around 3AM until 10AM. However, the most likely scenario keeps temperatures just above freezing in the 33 to 34 degree range. Temperatures should be warm enough after that time that any frozen precip will melt, and no further issues should take place.

But wait, there's more. Another reinforcing frontal boundary is expected to arrive Friday, finally clearing out clouds and drying conditions out. Behind this front, however, we could have a couple of the coldest nights we've seen all winter. Forecast lows are in the mid-20s to low 40s on Friday and Saturday mornings with clear skies and light winds favoring extremely efficient radiational cooling. Daytime highs will struggle to even reach 60 degrees on these days as well.

By Sunday, conditions will finally start warming up as the surface high slides east, allowing a veering wind profile to finally advect some warmer air back in. This should finally break this cold pattern, at least for awhile. Daytime highs start to climb back into the 70s for early next week.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 710 PM EST Mon Jan 20 2025

VFR conditions will prevail at the start the TAF period but flight conditions will deteriorate overnight into Tuesday from south to north with lowering CIGs and scattered SHRA developing across the area. This should result in MVFR CIGs across most of the area by late Tuesday morning with IFR CIGs already possible by then at SWFL terminals. By late afternoon and evening hours on Tuesday, mainly low-end MVFR to IFR CIGs are expected area-wide as SHRA coverage increases ahead of a frontal boundary approaching from the north with chances for VSBY restrictions also increasing by Tuesday evening, particularly within any heavier pockets of precipitation. Winds will be out of the NE throughout the period around 5-10 kts, though wind speeds will start to increase by the end of the period as the frontal boundary pushes through.

MARINE
Issued at 310 PM EST Mon Jan 20 2025

With a cold front stalling out to the south, a breezy northerly flow continues across coastal waters, keeping seas elevated enough that small craft should exercise caution. As an area of low pressure approaches from the west and a warm front lifts northward overnight, rain chances will begin to increase tonight and into tomorrow, and winds will increase into tomorrow night, with gusts to gale force possible. Poor marine conditions will linger through Wednesday before improving towards the weekend.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 310 PM EST Mon Jan 20 2025

No concerns as ample moisture will remain over the next few days.
Drier weather does not return until the end of the work week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 44 60 42 52 / 40 80 100 50 FMY 51 65 47 58 / 50 60 90 40 GIF 45 60 43 53 / 60 80 100 60 SRQ 45 61 43 56 / 60 70 100 40 BKV 37 60 36 50 / 20 70 100 50 SPG 46 57 44 52 / 50 80 100 50

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 7 AM EST Tuesday for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee- Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

Gulf waters...None.