Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for South Patrick Shores, FL

UPDATE
Issued at 914 PM EDT Sun May 11 2025

Scattered showers and storms are ongoing this evening, mainly across Brevard and Osceola counties, with additional showers and storms moving in from the west coast. This activity is moving generally east to northeast at around 20 mph. Temperatures as of 9 PM are in the low to mid 70s with south- southeast winds around 10 mph. Unsettled weather will continue tonight into Monday as moisture increases over the Florida peninsula. Widespread showers will bring a high (70-80 percent) chance for rain across east central Florida through the overnight hours. While overall storm chances decrease overnight, multiple rounds of rainfall are forecast to continue through sunrise. South to southeast winds will persist tonight with speeds generally 10 mph or less. As multiple rounds of rain push through the area, expect cloudy conditions to continue with overnight lows reaching in the upper 60s to low 70s. Forecast remains on track with no major changes.



PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
Issued at 333 PM EDT Sun May 11 2025

Current-Evening... Showers and isolated storms have developed across the western Peninsula early this afternoon. Coverage is expected to increase as these showers and storms move north-northeast into the evening, eventually colliding with the east coast sea breeze.
Mesoscale analysis has indicated mixed layer CAPE values between 1,000-1,500 J/kg across the south where breaks in cloud cover have been observed throughout the day. Additionally, effective bulk shear values have been analyzed between 35-45 kts. A stronger storm which develops late this afternoon and evening will be capable of frequent cloud-to-ground lightning strikes, wind gusts of 40-50 mph, and locally heavy rainfall. While overall storm chances decrease after sunset, multiple rounds of rainfall are expected to continue through late evening and into the overnight.

Tonight-Tuesday... Stationary low pressure along the northern Gulf coast lifts northeastward through the period. An associated cold front approaches the Florida peninsula tonight, passing the local area Monday and into Tuesday. In the upper levels, a 250mb jet will gradually slide eastward across the state. Divergence in vicinity of the jet combined with surface forcing from the front will promote large scale ascent of a deep moisture (PWAT ~2"). This will promote rounds of moderate to locally heavy rainfall tonight and through the day Monday, and high coverage of showers are expected areawide (60- 80%). Conditions dry from northwest to southeast Tuesday, maintaining the highest coverage along the Treasure Coast (40-60%).
Average rainfall totals through Monday evening are forecast between 1-1.5" with locally higher totals (90th percentile) between 2.5-3.5" possible. WPC has highlighted areas north of I-4 in a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall tonight, expanding areawide into tomorrow morning. Multiple rounds of locally heavy rainfall could cause ponding of water on roadways and minor flooding of urban and low- lying areas. Additional rainfall remains possible along portions of the Treasure Coast through Tuesday while areas north and west follow a drying trend. The storm threat associated with increasing showers remains conditional and a bit more uncertain. Cloud cover and precip will limit overall daytime heating and instability. However, if a stronger updraft is able to develop, a saturated air column could allow for downbursts and convective winds of 40-50 mph. Weak directional shear will be present, and a weak tornado cannot be completely ruled out should a stronger storm develop.

High temperatures will be limited to low 80s on Monday due to increased cloud cover and high rain chances. Clouds begin to clear from the northwest Tuesday allowing temperatures to reach the mid 80s. Morning lows will be muggy in the upper 60s to low 70s.

Wednesday-Saturday (modified previous)... Ridging builds over the Gulf and across Florida as the mid-level low departs to the northeast, supporting weak high pressure at the surface centered near Central Florida. Subsidence from this stacked high pressure knocks rain chances out of the forecast late week and will produce increasingly hot afternoons. The current forecast package maintains a small chance for showers on Wednesday with dry conditions forecast through the remainder of the week. Highs around normal in the M-U80s Wednesday gradually increase to become well above normal (M-U90s) by Saturday, and the current forecast flirts with daily high temperatures records across the interior.

MARINE
Issued at 333 PM EDT Sun May 11 2025

Tonight (modified previous)... Poor boating conditions continue across the local Atlantic waters. The nearly stationary low pressure system over the Deep South finally starts to shift northeastward tonight, dragging a cold front across the Gulf and toward the Florida west coast by Monday morning. South-southeasterly winds around 15-20 kts persist across all sections of the Central Florida Atlantic waters, and small craft should exercise caution. In addition, rounds of offshore moving showers and lightning storms are expected through the overnight and into Monday. Seas 4-5 ft.

Monday-Thursday (modified previous)... Rounds of offshore moving showers and lightning storms continue as the front slowly crosses the peninsula Monday and Tuesday and pushes into the local Atlantic waters Tuesday night. South-southeasterly winds 15-20 kts continue Monday, then begin to diminish late Monday into Tuesday as flow veers southwest. The front finally departs the area Wednesday morning, ushering in lighter winds, drier conditions, and generally better, albeit increasingly hot, boating conditions.
Seas 4-5 ft Monday diminish to 3-4 ft Tuesday, and 2-3 ft Wednesday onward.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 736 PM EDT Sun May 11 2025

VFR with periods of MVFR CIGs through this evening. SSE are gusting to around 20 KT, mainly from MCO-TIX southward. SHRA/TSRA are forecast to continue from west to east across the area through around 03Z, before continuing intermittently thru 12z Mon. MVFR to occasional IFR impacts are possible throughout. Confidence remains low in the exact timing and persistence of MVFR conditions overnight into Monday, with a shift of SHRA/TSRA coverage to TIX- SUA after 12z-14z Mon. Some models are indicating more intermittent SHRA/TSRA after 18Z on Monday with periods of dry conditions possible. Thus, have introduced VC wording in the afternoon.
Additional TEMPOs and AMD are likely, especially after 06z.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 70 81 67 86 / 80 90 40 40 MCO 71 79 69 85 / 80 90 50 30 MLB 72 82 69 86 / 80 90 70 30 VRB 72 84 69 87 / 80 90 80 40 LEE 71 81 69 85 / 80 80 20 30 SFB 70 82 68 87 / 80 90 40 40 ORL 72 81 69 86 / 80 90 40 30 FPR 71 83 69 86 / 80 90 80 40

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
AM...None.