Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for South Patrick Shores, FL

DISCUSSION
Issued at 230 PM EDT Sat Aug 8 2026

Thru Tonight...Storms focused near the coast this morning and early afternoon but should now focus more on the interior and Volusia county through early evening. HRRR (ARW and NSSL) is not bullish with development as the HRRR and RRFS are. But given the deep moisture present across the north, sfc heating and eventual boundary interactions (not to mention active storms in NE FL), think additional storm development looks likely with the highest coverage focusing through the I-4 corridor and Lake county. Have not seen much wind with the earlier storms near the coast but cannot rule out a wet downburst of 40-50 mph. Of greater concern are the frequent lightning strikes (including a few "bolts from the blue") seen earlier and should redevelop with additional storms.

A risk of heavy to excessive rainfall will exist due to the very moist airmass in place as 15Z XMR sounding shows PWAT of 2.27".
Storm motion is slower and the deep southerly flow is encouraging cell segments to train over the same area at times. Quick rainfall totals of 2-3" with isolated spots to around 5" are possible, leading to temporary flooding issues. Convection will gradually wind down after sunset across the interior, with mostly dry conditions overnight.

Sun...Atlantic ridge axis will begin to shift southward tomorrow, with onshore winds out of the east-southeast forecast. Aloft, a mid-level ridge will begin to nudge its way in from the east and combine with the advection of drier air aloft (PW values falling to 1.8-2.0"). So this should lead to a decrease in showers and storms. However, still expecting scattered coverage (PoPs 30-50%)
into the afternoon/evening, especially across the interior. Storm threats of frequent lightning, strong wind gusts and locally heavy rainfall will continue with any stronger convection. Hot and humid conditions persist, with highs in the low 90s, and potentially reaching the mid 90s northwest of I-4. Peak heat index values still forecast around 102-107F in the afternoon.

Mon-Sat...Ridge aloft continues to build west and across Florida, remaining in place across the region through all of next week.
This will lead to continued hot and humid conditions and also combine with drier air moving in aloft to produce below normal storm coverage each day. Afternoon/evening shower and storm chances drop to 20-30% Monday and Tuesday and 20% or less Wednesday-Friday. Atlantic ridge axis shifting southward and eventually south of central FL into mid/late week will also eventually switch the prevailing flow offshore, which will put an end to any potential for isolated onshore moving showers during the overnight/early morning hours.

With limited relief from afternoon convection, heat impacts will rise into next week, with highs near to above normal in the low to mid 90s leading to a widespread Moderate to Major HeatRisk. Peak heat index values will continue to solidly reach 102-107F, but for portions of the area could see these values nudge toward Heat Advisory criteria of 108-110F, especially Tuesday onward. Will continue to monitor the need for any Heat Advisories next week.

MARINE
Issued at 230 PM EDT Sat Aug 8 2026

Boating conditions forecast to remain overall favorable this weekend through at least the middle of next week as Atlantic ridge axis north of the area today gradually shifts southward, becoming stationary over south central FL. Winds will remain onshore, generally out of the SE through Sunday, veering to the S/SE early next week then becoming W/SW Wed/Thu as ridge axis shifts south.
A 10-12 knot east coast sea breeze will develop each afternoon next week. Seas will continue to subside slowly, from 3-4 feet this afternoon to 2-3 feet Sunday and 1-2 feet by Wed-Thu.

Drier air moving into the region will then lead to mostly dry conditions across the waters next week. However, should still see periods of isolated showers and storms still developing at times (rain chances mostly 20% or less).

AVIATION
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 720 PM EDT Sat Aug 8 2026

VCTS continues near MCO and ISM through 01Z, winding down to VCSH at SFB and LEE. PROB30s still in play at MCO and ISM for VIS and CIG reductions due to TSRA. Dry conditions along the coast, with the interior terminals joining after 01Z. VFR overnight with light ESE winds. Winds pick up to around 10 knots after 16Z, with the ECSB pushing inland. Increasing chances for VCSH along the coast with the ECSB development, with VCTS possible across the interior after 19Z. Too early to determine the need for PROB30s or TEMPOs, but the interior terminals have the best chance of needed one.
Will monitor and amend as needed.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 76 90 76 91 / 20 30 10 20 MCO 76 93 76 93 / 30 40 10 20 MLB 77 89 77 90 / 10 30 0 10 VRB 77 90 77 91 / 20 30 0 10 LEE 76 92 77 92 / 40 40 20 10 SFB 76 92 76 93 / 30 40 10 30 ORL 76 92 76 93 / 30 40 10 20 FPR 76 90 76 90 / 20 30 0 20

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
AM...None.