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AMZ552 Volusia-brevard County Line To Sebastian Inlet 0-20 Nm- 405 Am Est Mon Dec 11 2023
.small craft advisory in effect until 1 pm est this afternoon...
Today..Northwest winds 20 knots, becoming north 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas to 7 feet. A dominant period 5 seconds. Choppy on the intracoastal waters.
Tonight..North winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas to 6 feet. A dominant period 7 seconds. Choppy on the intracoastal waters.
Tuesday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas to 6 feet. A dominant period 7 seconds. Choppy on the intracoastal waters.
Tuesday night..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet with occasional seas to 9 feet. Choppy on the intracoastal waters.
Wednesday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots, increasing to 20 to 25 knots in the afternoon. Seas 6 to 8 feet with occasional seas to 10 feet. Rough on the intracoastal waters. A slight chance of showers.
Wednesday night..Northeast winds 20 to 25 knots, increasing to 25 to 30 knots after midnight. Seas 8 to 10 feet with occasional seas to 13 feet. A chance of showers.
Thursday..Northeast winds 25 to 30 knots. Seas 9 to 11 feet with occasional seas to 15 feet. A chance of showers.
Thursday night..East winds 25 to 30 knots. Seas 10 to 12 feet with occasional seas to 17 feet. A chance of showers.
Friday..East winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 10 to 12 feet with occasional seas to 17 feet. A chance of showers.

AMZ500 Synopsis For Flagler Beach To Jupiter Inlet Out To 60 Nm- 405 Am Est Mon Dec 11 2023
Synopsis..A fresh north to northwest breeze will continue across the waters today behind a strong cold front shifting into south florida. This will continue to produce hazardous boating conditions across the coastal waters through early this afternoon, with poor to hazardous boating continuing through early this week as high pressure northwest of florida builds toward the mid-atlantic region. Tightening pressure gradient between frontal boundary south of florida and high pressure to the north will lead to a strengthening onshore flow into mid to late week. This will lead to hazardous to potentially dangerous boating conditions across the entire waters.

Gulf stream hazards..North to northwest winds 20 to 25 knots, decreasing to around 20 knots late this afternoon. Seas building up to 7 feet.
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Saturday, december 9th.
48 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 34 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 24 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 17 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 12 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.

FXUS62 KTBW 111028 AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 528 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2023

New DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER

DISCUSSION
Issued at 520 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2023

Quieter day on tap to kick off the work week today as high pressure continues building into the state with cooler and drier conditions in the wake of Sunday's cold front. Area temps as of around 5 AM this morning are about 5-15 degrees cooler compared to 24 hours ago, with the greatest differences over the Nature Coast and areas north of I-4. Breezier northerly winds have set up across the area as well and will continue through today with gusty conditions likely this afternoon before tapering off tonight after sunset.
Mostly sunny skies are expected, however, continued cold air advection will limit afternoon highs from around 60 north up to around 70 south, about 10-15 degrees below typical temps for this time of year. With the expected drop off in winds overnight, expect the below normal theme to continue with lows dropping into the mid to upper 30s for Nature Coast locations, lower to mid 40s for central locations away from the immediate coast, and upper 40s to around 50 for southern locations including the central and southern immediate coastal vicinities. Patchy frost will be possible across Nature Coast locations particularly where winds drop off the most.

The trailing surface high behind the front then slides east and settles over the E. U.S. on Tuesday with the frontal boundary becoming stationary over the N Caribbean, allowing a warming trend to ensue on Tuesday as winds gradually veer out of the E/NE allowing Atlantic moisture to work across the peninsula, gradually modifying the current cooler drier air mass filtering into the state. Temps return to more average values through the remainder of the period with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s and 60s. Rain-free conditions continue into mid week as zonal W/SW flow remains over the area before impulses embedded within the flow interact with the remnant boundary as it gradually lifts back north into the S gulf during the mid to late week time frame bringing a chance of showers back into the area toward the end of the work week and into the weekend. Similar to previous forecast cycles, uncertainty remains regarding the outlook for the latter part of the forecast period, mainly centered around how guidance handles the evolution of a southern stream disturbance aloft progged to move east into the southern U.S./N Gulf Coast region this weekend. While differences remain in available solutions, overall trend of a wave of low pressure developing along the lingering surface boundary over the central or eastern gulf over the weekend continues, which would most likely push across the peninsula with an uptick in rain chances. For now continue to advertise PoPs mainly in the 30-40 percent range for the late week through weekend period as details become clearer through the week.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1240 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2023

Cold front rapidly racing across southern terminals after clearing northern ones this evening, with gusty NW winds and a period of MVFR cigs in its wake. Local obs show mainly VFR cigs around Tampa Bay, therefore have indicated MVFR cigs via TEMPO for TPA/PIE with prevailing MVFR cigs elsewhere to begin period. Post-frontal drier air filters in relatively quickly with cigs lifting to VFR around 09Z or so in accordance with guidance, then also depicts remaining low-level moisture scouring out generally around 12Z or shortly thereafter with continued VFR through remainder of period.
Winds remain elevated with higher gusts through much of the day while gradually veering from NW to northerly by mid to late morning then gradually diminishing late afternoon into early evening.

MARINE
Issued at 520 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2023

Gusty advisory level northerly winds and building seas expected today as high pressure builds over the waters from the north in the wake of the recent cold front. Winds gradually diminish slightly and veer northeast into Tuesday but remain elevated near cautionary levels. Gradient remains in place through much of the week supporting continued cautionary to advisory level E/NE winds with rain chances returning for the latter half of the week as the remnant boundary slowly lifts back north across the waters before uncertainty increases late in the week, however gusty winds and elevated seas along with returning rain chances later in the week remain the main features.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 520 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2023

High pressure building into the state today will continue to support gusty northerly winds with a cooler and drier air mass filtering into the area. Some areas may approach critical RH values this afternoon for a few hours, however, widespread long duration Red Flag conditions are not currently expected. Winds veer out of the E/NE on Tuesday with moisture recovering as Atlantic moisture works into the area through the remainder of the period. Enhanced E/NE flow with periods of gustiness likely through the week with rain chances returning over the latter half of the week and into the weekend as the potential for unsettled weather increases.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 65 47 72 58 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 70 51 76 63 / 0 0 0 10 GIF 66 46 72 59 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 66 47 73 60 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 64 37 71 53 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 63 51 69 60 / 0 0 0 0

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for Coastal Charlotte- Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM- Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM.

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Hillsborough Bay
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Mon -- 05:50 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:10 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:38 AM EST     -0.81 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 03:08 PM EST     1.73 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:24 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 05:35 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 05:55 PM EST     2.07 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:43 PM EST     2.99 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Hillsborough Bay, Tampa Bay, Tampa Bay, Florida, Tide feet

Titusville
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Mon -- 02:36 AM EST     4.02 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:45 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:05 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:03 AM EST     3.95 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:15 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 05:27 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:07 PM EST     3.99 feet High Tide
Mon -- 09:25 PM EST     3.98 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Titusville, Indian River, Florida, Tide feet

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