Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for New Port Richey, FL

DISCUSSION
Issued at 148 AM EDT Fri May 23 2025 A frontal boundary has become stationary across the central Florida peninsula. Variable mid/high cloudiness persists across the region. Daytime heating today combined with a conditionally unstable atmosphere will allow scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms to develop this afternoon...with the best chance over the interior as onshore boundary layer flow will push the west coast sea breeze boundary inland by afternoon. A few strong storms may be possible, with SPC indicating a marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) for severe thunderstorms over highlands and extreme eastern Polk counties. Drier low level air located north of the of the frontal boundary will hold dew points to the mid to upper 50s this afternoon across the nature coast...and the lower to mid 60s in central areas.

Over the weekend, the stationary boundary across the region will dissipate and the subtropical U/L ridge will build back over west central and southwest Florida. The large scale subsidence associated with the ridge will cause temperatures to increase a few degrees. Weak surface high pressure over the region will promote the west coast sea breeze boundary to push inland each day during the afternoon hours...and residual deep layer moisture combined with daytime heating will create a chance of afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms with the highest pops over the interior each day.

Not much change early next week as the pattern will remain quite stable. Daytime heating will generate a chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms...and onshore flow will push the west coast sea breeze boundary inland by afternoon where the highest pops/best chance for rain will occur each day.

MARINE
Issued at 148 AM EDT Fri May 23 2025 High pressure and a weak overall gradient will occur across the waters for the next several days with winds expected to remain below cautionary levels each day. Main hazard will be isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms which may produce locally gusty winds and rough seas.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 148 AM EDT Fri May 23 2025 Dew points in the mid to upper 50s across the nature coast combined with high temperatures in the lower to mid 90s will create critical RH's across the nature coast this afternoon.
Slightly higher dew points over central areas will still cause minimum RH's to around critical values...in the mid to upper 30s.
40s. Winds will remain below 15 MPH which will preclude RFW concerns. Low level moisture will begin to recover on Saturday, however minimum relative humidity values will still drop near or slightly below critical values across portions of the nature coast. Again, winds are expected to remain less than 15 MPH.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 93 77 94 78 / 10 10 30 10 FMY 94 74 94 74 / 50 20 60 20 GIF 94 73 95 73 / 30 10 50 10 SRQ 92 74 92 75 / 20 10 30 10 BKV 94 66 95 68 / 10 0 30 10 SPG 91 78 92 78 / 10 10 30 10

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 4 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 1

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https:// www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.