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AMZ552 Volusia-brevard County Line To Sebastian Inlet 0-20 Nm- 317 Pm Est Mon Dec 4 2023
Tonight..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A dominant period 7 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A dominant period 11 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters.
Tuesday night..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots, increasing to 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A dominant period 10 seconds. Choppy on the intracoastal waters.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet with occasional seas to 5 feet, building to 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas to 7 feet in the afternoon. Choppy on the intracoastal waters.
Wednesday night..North winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas to 7 feet. Choppy on the intracoastal waters.
Thursday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas to 6 feet. A moderate chop on the intracoastal waters.
Thursday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet with occasional seas to 5 feet.
Friday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet with occasional seas to 5 feet.
Friday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Saturday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet with occasional seas to 5 feet. A slight chance of showers.

AMZ500 Synopsis For Flagler Beach To Jupiter Inlet Out To 60 Nm- 317 Pm Est Mon Dec 4 2023
Synopsis..As a cold front moves over south florida, high pressure will build over the local waters through Tuesday. A secondary surge of fresh northerly winds will reach the local waters Wednesday into Thursday as low pressure develops off the mid atlantic and northeast u.s. Coasts, producing poor to hazardous boating conditions, especially well offshore.

Gulf stream hazards..None.
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Sunday, december 3rd.
43 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 28 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 23 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 15 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 10 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.

FXUS62 KMLB 042101 AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 401 PM EST Mon Dec 4 2023

DISCUSSION

Tonight/Tue...Cold front continues to ooze across EC FL, located across Okeechobee/Treasure coast late this afternoon. Isolated showers will be possible in this region into early evening before pushing offshore over the adjacent Atlc. Much drier air will filter in at the low and mid levels but considerable moisture aloft will maintain partly to mostly cloudy skies. Northwest flow will advect cooler air into the area with mins in the 50s most areas, lower 60s Treasure coast. On Tue, max temps will range from the lower 70s across Lake and Volusia to near 80 Martin county.

Tuesday Night-Wednesday...Cooler weather is in store midweek as a reinforcing front pushes south through the area, late Tuesday into Wednesday. Low temperatures Wednesday morning trended down a degree or so in this forecast, especially in places north of Interstate 4.
Lows of 49 and 48 for Leesburg and Daytona Beach respectively are still on the upper end of statistical guidance. Thus, there is room to nudge these temps down another degree or two in future forecasts.
One limiting factor is that there will be a modest amount of clouds Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Wednesday brings not only cooler air, but also drier and windier conditions. Gusty northwest winds 10 to 15 mph could gust as high as 20 to 25 mph at times.
Clouds are expected to clear from north to south through the day, setting the stage for a cold and mostly clear/partly cloudy Wednesday night.

Thursday-Sunday...Even colder temperatures settle in Thursday morning pre-dawn, falling into the low 40s (north) to the upper 40s/low 50s along the coast. It would not be shocking to see the forecast continue trending colder for this timeframe, especially across inland/interior portions of east central Florida. Over 50 percent of NBM ensemble members take temperatures below 39 degrees in far western Lake and Volusia counties. Northerly winds, while light, will factor into a wind chill of 40 and below across western Volusia, Lake, and far northwestern Orange counties Thursday morning. A good bit of sunshine will help temperatures rebound into the mid 60s to low 70s by the afternoon as surface flow veers to the east-northeast.

A mid level pressure ridge progresses to the east Thursday night into Friday as southwesterly flow aloft takes over. Light onshore winds veer remain out of the east-southeast through the first half of next weekend before increasing and veering south-southwest Sunday. Increasing moisture, brought by onshore flow and maritime air over the Atlantic, will help to create isolated shower chances over the Atlantic waters as early as Friday. Some of this activity may drift onshore along the coast, especially on Saturday. While considerable differences exist in model output Sunday, a developing low pressure system over the middle CONUS will help send a cold front south into Florida during the day. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms look to be in play on Sunday, especially depending on the track of the aforementioned low. Temperatures through this period (from Thursday onward) will trend up, reaching near normal values by Friday and Saturday...with the warmest day of the next seven being Saturday or Sunday (depending on location). Another cooldown is now expected early next week.

MARINE
Issued at 231 PM EST Mon Dec 4 2023

Tonight/Tue...NW winds 10-15 knots behind a cold front will produce some choppy seas in the Gulf Stream but no headlines will be needed. Seas will be suppressed 2 feet or less nearshore due to the offshore flow but up to 4 feet in the Gulf Stream.

Tuesday Night-Friday...Hazardous marine conditions are expected, beginning Wednesday. NW winds around 10 kt increase to 15-20 kt Wed.
morning and reach as high as 25-28 kt offshore Wed. afternoon. Seas respond, building from 2-4 ft Wed. morning to 5-9 ft Wed. evening.
Winds gradually slacken on Thu. and veer onshore, though waves remain 4-7 ft for at least the first half of the day. Improving conditions are forecast for Friday, with ESE flow and only a low chance for showers.



FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 231 PM EST Mon Dec 4 2023

Drier air behind a cold front will produce fire sensitive weather through mid week, with minimum RH values on Tuesday and Wednesday falling into the mid to upper 30s to low 40s then increasing to upper 40s to low 50s area wide on Thursday. Northwest winds will prevail through midweek, with wind speeds near 10 mph on Tuesday, increasing to 15 mph and gusty on Wednesday.



AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 231 PM EST Mon Dec 4 2023

Isold SHRA FPR-SUA thru 00Z; otherwise VFR through the TAF period at all terminals.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 54 73 48 63 / 0 0 0 0 MCO 57 74 53 64 / 0 0 0 0 MLB 58 77 50 68 / 0 0 0 0 VRB 59 79 51 69 / 10 0 0 0 LEE 54 72 49 64 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 55 74 50 65 / 0 0 0 0 ORL 57 75 53 65 / 0 0 0 0 FPR 60 79 51 69 / 10 0 0 0

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
AM...None.

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Patrick Air Force Base
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Mon -- 12:04 AM EST     3.28 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:19 AM EST     1.00 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:59 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 12:36 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 12:36 PM EST     3.53 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:25 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 07:04 PM EST     1.07 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Patrick Air Force Base, Florida, Tide feet

Canaveral Harbor Entrance
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Mon -- 12:13 AM EST     2.83 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:15 AM EST     0.79 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:59 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 12:32 PM EST     3.52 feet High Tide
Mon -- 12:36 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 05:25 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 07:07 PM EST     0.69 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Canaveral Harbor Entrance, Florida, Tide feet

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