Thursday, October1, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Rockledge, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:15AMSunset 7:09PM Thursday October 1, 2020 7:17 PM EDT (23:17 UTC) Moonrise 6:25PMMoonset 5:56AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ552 Volusia-brevard County Line To Sebastian Inlet 0-20 Nm- 312 Pm Edt Thu Oct 1 2020
Tonight..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet with a dominant period 8 seconds. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters. A slight chance of showers.
Friday..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period 8 seconds. A moderate chop on the intracoastal waters.
Friday night..Northeast winds 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period 8 seconds. Mostly smooth on the intracoastal waters. Isolated showers.
Saturday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. A moderate chop on the intracoastal waters. Scattered showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Numerous showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
Sunday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. A moderate chop on the intracoastal waters. Showers likely and chance of Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Showers likely and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Monday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Showers likely and chance of Thunderstorms.
Monday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..East winds 10 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Showers likely and chance of Thunderstorms.
AMZ500 Synopsis For Flagler Beach To Jupiter Inlet Out To 60 Nm- 312 Pm Edt Thu Oct 1 2020
Synopsis..A weak front will remain nearly stationary across south florida into late week. Deep moisture will continue across the southern waters, keeping higher rain chances and potential for isolated Thunderstorms near to south of melbourne. By the weekend, the front lifts northward increasing rain chances across the rest of the region.
Gulf stream hazards..None. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Tuesday, september 29th. 40 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 27 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 23 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 14 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 8 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Rockledge, FL
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location: 28.35, -80.71     debug


Area Discussion for - Melbourne, FL
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FXUS62 KMLB 011949 AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 347 PM EDT Thu Oct 1 2020

DISCUSSION.

. Flood Watch Remains in Effect for Coastal Martin and St Lucie Counties Through Friday Afternoon .

Current-Tonight . Proximity to the stalled front, deep moisture, coastal convergence, diffluence aloft continuing to allow shallow, efficient precip producing cells to develop near the coast and push onshore with slow movement until they rain themselves out. While the main storm steering flow is forecast slowly out of the southwest, the low-level flow is dominating cell movement as many cells are propagating out of the east and northeast. High coverage of precipitation, includes a tight shower/storm gradient across St. Lucie and Martin counties compared with areas northward. To a lesser extent there may be some stray shower activity into portions of Okeechobee, southeast Osceola, Indian River and southern Brevard counties. But as mentioned the precip/moisture gradient is fairly tight with mostly dry conditions north/west.

Locally heavy, persistent bands of rain (training) will set up across St. Lucie and Martin counties, and the adjacent Atlantic into tonight. Locally, 4-6 inches of rainfall cannot be rule out, especially nearer the coast. Isolated (embedded) lightning storms will accompany some rain bands. Residents will need to remain vigilant in monitoring local weather reports regarding flooding. As these areas remain very saturated any additional rainfall will immediately become runoff and not able to soak into the ground. It will not be advisable to drive in flooded roadways and very risky to drive in rain-swollen streets at night under these expected less than favorable conditions.

Lows tonight will range from the L-M 60s for Lake/Volusia southward toward Okeechobee County while the Space/Treasure coasts realize U60s to L70s.

Previous Extended Forecast Discussion Modified .

Friday . A dry, reinforcing front pushes into central Florida late tonight into Friday morning, causing the stalled frontal boundary across the Treasure Coast to nudge southward. This pins the deeper moisture mostly in far southern St. Lucie and Martin counties. Even so, rain chances there are gradually reduced to around 30-50 percent in the morning, with perhaps some isolated showers as far north as Vero Beach/Sebastian. The further the new front is able to penetrate southward, perhaps the lower the precip chances across the Treasure Coast into late morning/afternoon on Fri bringing some temporarily drier conditions and relief.

Heavy rainfall and localized flooding will be a concern for coastal St. Lucie/Martin counties early in the period where any additional heavy rain in a short period will lead to urban flooding. The rest of the area to the north will be dry on Friday. Afternoon temperatures climb into the mid 80s areawide. Waking up to cool temps in the 60s for much of the area Friday morning, except in the low 70s for the immediate Treasure Coast.

Saturday-Monday . Deep tropical moisture lifts north across central Florida Saturday through Monday, bringing high rain chances and the potential for localized flooding. On Saturday rain and storm chances range from 40-50 percent across the north, to 60-70 percent for the Treasure Coast, and by Sunday the entire area will see a 70 percent chance of rain and lightning storms. Afternoon highs in the low 80s on Saturday climb steadily each afternoon, reaching the mid 80s by Monday. Cool temps in mid/upper 60s for most on Saturday morning, give way to muggy nights with overnight lows Sunday/Monday morning in the low to mid 70s.

Most models agree that by Sunday some kind of tropical system will be organizing in the far northwest Caribbean Sea or near the Yucatan in the far southern GOMEX. At the same time, a trough located over the Southeast U.S. will drag deep tropical moisture northeastward, associated with the tropical system ,to across the central/northern Florida peninsula.

This is a favorable setup for a potential Predecessor Rain Event (PRE) that could bring heavy rain and flooding to parts of central Florida. North/central FL will be near the right-entrance region of an upper-level jet streak. Combine this with deep moisture through much of the lower atmosphere, stout 850mb moisture transport, and a pseudo-warm front lifting north across central Florida you have the makings for a potential heavy rain event. Need to watch the forecast carefully over the next couple of days.

Tuesday-Wednesday . Wet weather pattern continues into the middle of next week as deep easterlies and abundant tropical moisture result in high rain chances each day. This is a low confidence forecast barring what happens in the tropics this weekend and early next week. Above normal temperatures return as afternoon highs reach the upper 80s areawide, and morning lows settle in the low/mid 70s.

AVIATION. Favorable setup for precipitation and some storms will continue into the nighttime period over the Treasure Coast. Expect MVFR to ocnl IFR conds at SUA/FPR sites with some chc of vis cig reductions as well at VRB through at least 02/01Z. Elsewhere, VFR conds with some lingering clouds AOA FL 040 well into tonight across the remainder of central FL.

MARINE. Afternoon-Tonight . The quasi-stationary frontal boundary near the southern waters will continue to plague this area with likely showers with embedded lightning storms through the night. Northward above Sebastian Inlet perhaps an isolated shower or storm, but mainly drier. Current N/NE winds may back a bit northward to N/NW during the night with the approach of a reinforcing frontal boundary from the north. Wind speeds still generally 10-15 kts over the open Atlc. Showery precip near the coast and across our southern waters could promote variable winds at times due to the disruption. Seas generally 3-4 ft.

Friday . A reinforcing front moves through the local waters Friday creating less than favorable small craft boating conditions as N/NE winds increase to 15 knots with seas 3-4 feet. Should be a dry day across much of the area, except south of Ft. Pierce Inlet where scattered showers and lighting storms are forecast in the afternoon.

Saturday-Monday . Deep tropical moisture surge north across central Florida, resulting in high rain chances this weekend into early next week. Potentially poor boating conditions on Saturday as NE winds increase to 15-20 knots, with seas 3-4 feet. By Sunday into early Monday winds become E/SE and diminish to 10-15 knots, but seas build up to 4-5 feet. Periods of heavy rainfall, occasional lightning strikes and gusty winds up to 30 knots will be possible each day.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. DAB 64 81 68 81 / 0 0 10 40 MCO 65 84 67 82 / 0 0 10 40 MLB 71 83 72 83 / 10 10 20 50 VRB 73 82 73 84 / 20 20 20 50 LEE 63 83 65 81 / 0 0 10 40 SFB 64 83 67 82 / 0 0 10 40 ORL 66 84 69 83 / 0 0 10 40 FPR 73 82 72 83 / 70 30 30 60

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . Flood Watch through Friday afternoon for Martin-St. Lucie.

AM . None.

ALL FORECAST GRIDS . Sedlock RADAR/IMPACT WEATHER . Leahy AVIATION . Pendergrast


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TRDF1 - 8721604 - Trident Pier, FL 8 mi48 min N 6 G 8 77°F 82°F1015.1 hPa
41113 - Cape Canaveral Nearshore, FL (143) 10 mi52 min 82°F2 ft
41009 - CANAVERAL 20 NM East of Cape Canaveral, FL 30 mi38 min N 12 G 14 80°F 83°F1013.4 hPa70°F
SIPF1 37 mi33 min 78°F 77°F1014 hPa
GTXF1 - Guana Tolomato Matanzas Reserve, FL 95 mi93 min NE 1.9 76°F 1015 hPa61°F

Wind History for Trident Pier, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cocoa - Patrick Air Force Base, FL10 mi22 minN 710.00 miPartly Cloudy78°F63°F61%1013.9 hPa
Cocoa Beach, Cape Canaveral Air Force Station Skid Strip, FL11 mi22 minN 610.00 miOvercast76°F66°F72%1013.9 hPa
Titusville, FL13 mi28 minNNE 77.00 miMostly Cloudy79°F66°F65%1014.6 hPa
Melbourne International Airport, FL17 mi25 minN 810.00 miPartly Cloudy78°F70°F76%1013.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCOF

Wind History from COF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr--N9N9N6N7N5NE6NE10N9NE10NE10NE10NE8N12N11N13NE14NE9N12N10N12N9N9N7
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2 days agoCalmE7E6E5E11E8SE6SE11S7S6S5S7S8S8S10S14S13SW10S10S12S14W6
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Tide / Current Tables for Canaveral Harbor Entrance, Florida
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Canaveral Harbor Entrance
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:54 AM EDT     0.17 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:56 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 07:15 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:08 AM EDT     3.77 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:11 PM EDT     0.19 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:06 PM EDT     Full Moon
Thu -- 07:07 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 07:24 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 08:23 PM EDT     3.78 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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10.30.20.411.92.83.53.83.63.12.21.20.50.20.30.91.72.63.43.73.73.22.4

Tide / Current Tables for Canaveral Harbor Entrance, Florida (2)
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Canaveral Harbor Entrance
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:03 AM EDT     0.63 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:56 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 07:15 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:09 AM EDT     4.52 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:21 PM EDT     0.69 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:06 PM EDT     Full Moon
Thu -- 07:07 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 07:24 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 08:22 PM EDT     4.48 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.60.90.60.91.52.53.44.24.54.33.72.81.91.10.70.81.32.23.244.44.43.93

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Melbourne, FL
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