Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Cocoa West, FL

DISCUSSION
Issued at 310 AM EST Sun Dec 7 2025

Early This Morning... A weak cold front has prompted considerable low stratus across much of east central Florida again this morning.
KMLB radar has shown light showers embedded within the stratus, moving east-northeast near and north of the I-4 corridor. Models suggest that most of this activity should diminish by sunrise, while some lingering showers may still exist across the far north including portions of Volusia and northern Lake counties. Ahead of sunrise, cannot rule out stratus continuing to lower, causing surface visibility reductions. Although confidence is not high, fog remains in the forecast for areas south of where the light showers are occurring.

Today-Monday... A weak low level ridge axis south of Florida and near the Florida Straits will keep local winds out of south to southwest today. This will help nudge the aforementioned frontal boundary northward. A loose area of low pressure moves along the front, passing the Florida peninsula before broadly organizing in the western Atlantic late today. The front will then be pulled southward across central Florida into Monday as the low retreats northeastward across the Atlantic.

While there is some uncertainty in how far north the front may lift, trends in CAMs suggest dry conditions setting in across most of east central Florida for much of the morning. Have kept a 20-30% chance for showers across Volusia and northern Lake counties into late morning. Otherwise, rain chances gradually rebuild south and eastward across the area through the afternoon and evening. The highest rain chances look to settle in near or after sunset with continued rounds of showers forecast overnight, especially from Brevard/ Osceola northward (60-80%). Further south, rain chances are currently forecast to remain more scattered. However, the 00Z HRRR has become very aggressive in the spreading high rain chances further south. This looks to be an outlier among deterministic CAM guidance at this time, but trends may need to be monitored. By tomorrow, isolated to scattered showers will gradually clear from north to south as the front passes. Confidence continues to remain low for lighting, keeping probabilities less than 20%. Cloud cover sticks around for most of the day, mostly limiting surface heating and instability. A better chance for clearing exists across the south where a differential heating boundary could develop. A marginally conditional storm environment may exist near this boundary, dominantly driven by southwest flow and moderate shear.
Even in the absence of storms, showers will still be capable of rounds of heavy rainfall. Rainfall averages of 1-2" will be possible through Monday from Orlando and the Cape northward, and localized higher totals up to 4" cannot be ruled out.

The position of the front and increased cloud cover will make for a variable temperature forecast north of I-4 this afternoon with highs ranging the mid 70s to low 80s. South of Orlando and the Cape, temperatures become more uniform in the low to mid 80s. Lows are forecast mostly in the low to mid 60s Monday morning. Cooler conditions spread southward into Monday afternoon with highs ranging the low 70s across the far north, reaching the upper 70s across the south near Lake Okeechobee.

Tuesday-Saturday... Surface high pressure builds over central Florida on Tuesday, gradually weakening through mid week as a cold front pushes into the southeast U.S. Low pressure rounding the base of a mid level trough pulls the cold front across central Florida into the weekend. Conditions remain mostly dry through Thursday with isolated showers returning to the forecast Friday ahead of the front. Afternoon temperatures spreading the upper 60s to low 70s on Tuesday gradually warm late week, reaching the mid to upper 70s by Friday. Temperatures then fall to range the mid 60s to low 70s Saturday behind the front.

MARINE
Issued at 310 AM EST Sun Dec 7 2025

A weak cold front oscillates northward today before passing cleanly south of the local waters on Monday. South to southwest flow around 10-15 kts develops today, becoming more variable across the Volusia waters in vicinity of the frontal boundary. Poor to hazardous boating conditions develop late Monday as northerly winds approaching 20-25 kts build seas 6-8 ft in the Gulf Stream. High pressure builds over the waters Tuesday, gradually weakening through mid weak. Winds slacken out of the northeast on Tuesday, eventually shifting offshore Wednesday. Hazardous seas in the Gulf Stream linger through Tuesday, before gradually subsiding to 5-6 ft on Wednesday and becoming widely 3-4 ft by Thursday. High coverage of showers and storm build south and east across the local waters late this afternoon and evening, continuing overnight. Rain chances diminish from north to south behind the front Monday with dry conditions building into mid week.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 643 AM EST Sun Dec 7 2025

MVFR conditions for most TAF sites as of around 12Z. Expect these conditions to persist through around 14Z before improving. A few light showers are still present on radar this morning. However, mostly dry conditions are forecast to continue through early afternoon. Then, a cold front will pass southward through the local area, bringing SHRA with embedded lightning storms. The line is expected to reach LEE/DAB first by around 22Z, then continue southward, reaching SUA by 5Z. As the front moves into the Treasure Coast, TS chances are forecast to diminish, with only SHRA included there. Elsewhere, TEMPOs for TSRA can be found during expected peak impact times. A few strong storms cannot be ruled out. Behind the front, VCSH looks to persist through much of the overnight, with MVFR/IFR CIG reductions once again.
Southerly winds this morning will veer generally northerly into Monday at around 10 kts or less.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 75 61 71 53 / 70 80 20 0 MCO 81 66 74 55 / 60 70 40 0 MLB 82 64 75 59 / 40 60 50 0 VRB 83 64 77 60 / 40 60 60 0 LEE 76 62 72 49 / 60 80 30 0 SFB 78 64 73 53 / 60 80 30 0 ORL 79 65 73 54 / 60 70 40 0 FPR 84 65 78 60 / 30 50 60 10

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
AM...None.