Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Cocoa, FL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
Issued at 401 AM EDT Thu May 22 2025

Today-Friday...Weak front will push gradually southward across central Florida today, and will eventually stall before lifting back north and fading through late week. This boundary will increase moisture, leading to a return of shower/thunderstorm chances across the area, mainly during the afternoon/evening hours as sea breeze boundaries move inland and collide across the interior. Greatest coverage of this activity will focus south of Orlando each day where higher moisture (PW values of 1.5-1.9") will exist. PoPs range from 20-30 percent near to north of Orlando today, and 10-20 percent on Friday, with rain chances increasing to as high as 40-60 percent farther south through Okeechobee County and the Treasure Coast.

Cool temps aloft, around -9 to -10C at 500mb today, and -10 to -11C on Friday, a modest increase in westerly winds in the low to mid levels, and sufficient Cape of 1000-2000 J/kg will continue the potential of strong to isolated severe storms. A Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe weather exists generally near to south of a line from Lake Kissimmee to the Cape today and SE of the I-4 corridor on Friday. Main threats will continue to be strong to locally damaging wind gusts of 40-60 mph, hail up to 1" in diameter, frequent lightning, and locally heavy downpours that could deliver a quick 1-3" of rainfall. There is also a very low (less than 2%)
threat for a tornado given the number of boundaries and interactions.

Highs are forecast to be a little closer to normal values in the mid 80s to low 90s today due to increasing cloud cover and rain chances.
However, highs will increase ever so slightly into Friday, ranging from the upper 80s along the coast and low 90s inland.

Saturday-Wednesday...Through the holiday weekend, high pressure over the west Atlantic will build back across Florida, with winds generally out of the S/SE, with an east coast sea breeze developing and pushing inland each afternoon. Sufficient moisture lingers in the wake of the front to generate isolated to scattered showers and storms each afternoon with the sea breeze. Rain chances around 20-40 percent Saturday and Sunday increase to 30-50 percent on Monday.
While shear weakens and temps aloft warm gradually through the period, there will remain the potential for a few stronger storms each day. Hotter conditions return, especially inland where highs will reach the mid 90s, mainly near to northwest of the I-4 corridor.

Another front is forecast to move through the southeast U.S. and approach central Florida into the middle of next week. Temps are forecast to remain above normal with scattered showers and storms continuing each afternoon and evening on Tuesday and Wednesday, with rain chances around 50 percent.

MARINE
Issued at 401 AM EDT Thu May 22 2025

Today-Monday...Weak front moves southward through the waters today, with winds becoming N/NW around 10 knots, and then veering N/NE around 5-10 knots into the afternoon. Front then stalls and lifts north, with high pressure over the west Atlantic building back across the Florida peninsula through the holiday weekend. Wind speeds are forecast to generally remain below 15 knots out of the S/SE through much of the weekend and into Memorial Day. Seas will range from 2-4 feet today, falling to 2-3 feet into the weekend.

These conditions will generally keep boating conditions favorable through late week into the holiday weekend, with the exception of a return of developing lightning storms over the waters. A few offshore moving storms, some which may be strong to severe will be possible during the afternoon/evening hours today and Friday, mainly near to south of the Cape. Offshore steering winds then weaken into the weekend, which should keep majority of scattered afternoon and evening storms over land. However, isolated to scattered storms developing over the waters will still be possible.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 141 PM EDT Thu May 22 2025

VFR conditions prevailing outside of convection. Scattered showers and storms are forecast to develop along the sea breeze collision beginning around 20Z, before moving offshore into the evening hours (2Z). Coverage is now forecast to be south of MCO/ISM, so have removed VCTS mention there. VRB/FPR/SUA are expected to see the most (if any) impact, with TEMPOs included from 21-0Z there for brief reductions in stronger storms. A few storms may approach MLB, so have included VCTS, though this is low confidence.
Easterly flow behind the sea breeze this afternoon will become light and offshore by early in the morning. Light flow will then prevail prior to the sea breeze development late Friday morning, beginning along the coast. Winds 12kts or less, with gusts up to 20kts possible at coastal terminals. Thunderstorms will be possible after 18Z once again Friday along the sea breeze collision.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 401 AM EDT Thu May 22 2025

A weak front moves into central Florida today, with dewpoints falling behind this boundary as low as the mid 50s to low 60s near to north of Orlando. While highs will be a little closer to normal today (mid 80s to low 90s) due to greater cloud cover and an increase in rain chances, min RH values are still forecast to fall to the mid to upper 30s along to NW of I-4 this afternoon. This will lead to sensitive fire weather conditions across this region, but N/NE winds are expected to be stay around 5-10 mph. Despite a gradual moisture return northward, increasing temps (highs in the low to mid 90s) will lead to Min RH values still falling as low as 35-40 percent near to NW of I-4 Friday and Saturday. This will continue sensitive fire weather conditions across this area, but winds across the interior are forecast to remain around 5-10 mph.

Daily shower and lightning storm chances are forecast to continue across the area today through the holiday weekend and into next week. Greatest coverage of this activity through late week will occur during the afternoon/evening hours, primarily south of Orlando where a few stronger storms may develop. Shower and storm chances then gradually increase across east central Florida through the holiday weekend and into next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 68 89 70 90 / 20 10 0 20 MCO 71 93 71 94 / 20 30 10 30 MLB 71 88 73 88 / 20 30 10 30 VRB 71 88 72 89 / 30 40 10 30 LEE 70 93 71 95 / 20 20 0 20 SFB 70 93 71 94 / 20 20 10 30 ORL 71 93 72 94 / 20 20 10 30 FPR 71 88 71 90 / 40 50 10 30

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
AM...None.