Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Cape Canaveral, FL

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cape Canaveral, FL

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Area Discussion for - Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 281910 AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 310 PM EDT Sun May 28 2023

New MARINE, AVIATION, HYDROLOGY

DISCUSSION

Tonight and Monday...Iso/Sct showers and a few storms across the southern third of the forecast area should continue through around 10 PM. Moisture wl slowly increase from the south and east into Monday, however it will remain seasonally drier during this period of transition. There will be a developing chc of a storms across the southern portion of the forecast area, south of Sebastian Inlet and southern Osceola Co. Highs will range from the mid 80s along the coast to upper 80s to near 90 degrees across the interior with skies partly cloudy. Overnight lows will fall into the upper 60s to low 70s.

modified prev...

Tuesday...A slight increase in moisture is expected into early this week in modest onshore flow. However, shower and storm chances are forecast to remain below normal, with PoPs no more than 20-30 percent south of a line from metro Orlando to Melbourne. From around Orlando northward rain chances wl remain below mentionable levels.

Wednesday-Saturday...High pressure to the north will lead a slight strengthening in the onshore flow, which will lead to rising moisture and rain chances through the reminder of the work week. PW values will increase to 1.8-1.9 inches on Wednesday to around 2 inches into late week. This combined with a developing cut-off low aloft that will push eastward along the northern Gulf Coast and toward FL, will lead to higher coverage of showers and storms across the area. Rain chances rise to 30-50 percent on Wednesday, and then up to 60-70 percent Thursday-Saturday as pattern remains unsettled.
Model guidance even shows the potential for development of an inverted trough or broad area of low pressure across the region as the mid level cut-off low crosses the state toward late week into early next weekend. A few stronger storms will be possible each afternoon, with locally heavy rainfall again a concern.

Highs will reach the upper 80s to low 90s on Wednesday and then will range from the mid to upper 80s Thursday, and low to mid 80s Friday and Saturday as the wetter pattern takes hold. Lows will continue to fall to the upper 60s to low 70s.

MARINE
Issued at 215 PM EDT Sun May 28 2023

Tonight and Monday...Swells over the marine area continue to decline and all headlines for sea conditions wl be removed at 4 PM. With gradient winds mainly 10 kt or less, a rolling swell will remain present over the waters with the chance of a shower/storm mainly south of Sebastian Inlet into early Monday. No headlines will be required Monday as winds acquire a light easterly fetch.

Tuesday...A light to gentle breeze will continue across the waters through early this week, around 5-10 knots, with a somewhat variable wind direction. However, winds will freshen onshore through the evening as east coast sea breeze develops and moves inland. Seas will steadily decrease 2-3 feet. Rain chances will remain below normal, with only isolated showers and storms expected south of the Cape.

Wednesday-Thursday...High pressure to the north will allow for a predominant onshore flow Wednesday and Thursday, with speeds increasing up to 10-15 knots. Seas will remain around 2 to 3 feet, with the main concern for boaters being an increase in coverage of showers and storms across the waters through mid to late week.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 215 PM EDT Sun May 28 2023

Brief IFR/MVFR conditions with showers psbl into evening from VRB-SUA. Otherwise, VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Isolated showers and storms across the Treasure coast this afternoon, with the CAMs hinting at redevelopment across the interior south of KISM and moving eastward in the evening hours.
N/NW winds across the interior with E/SE winds along the coast this afternoon as the sea breeze forms and pushes inland. Winds will become light and variable overnight before becoming NE at 5-10 KT by late morning/early afternoon. Isolated showers will be possible once again Monday afternoon, mainly from VRB-SUA. However confidence is not high enough at this time to put VC wording in there.

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 215 PM EDT Sun May 28 2023

The river level on the Saint Johns River at Astor remains in Minor Flood Stage. The river is expected to continue in Minor Flood Stage through Monday night, while decreasing, falling below Minor Flood Stage Tuesday morning.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 66 84 67 87 / 0 0 0 10 MCO 68 87 69 89 / 10 10 10 20 MLB 70 85 71 87 / 10 10 10 20 VRB 69 86 70 87 / 20 20 20 20 LEE 65 89 68 91 / 0 0 0 10 SFB 66 88 67 90 / 0 0 0 10 ORL 69 88 70 92 / 0 0 10 20 FPR 70 85 72 86 / 20 20 20 30

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
AM...None.

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Wind History for Trident Pier, FL

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Airport Reports

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Link to 5 minute data for KXMR

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Wind History from XMR (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for Canaveral Harbor Entrance, Florida

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