Monday, December9, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Port O'Connor, TX

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:08AMSunset 5:32PM Monday December 9, 2019 7:05 AM CST (13:05 UTC) Moonrise 3:56PMMoonset 4:31AM Illumination 94% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ330 Matagorda Bay- 330 Am Cst Mon Dec 9 2019
Today..South winds around 10 knots. Bay waters smooth to slightly choppy.
Tonight..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Bay waters smooth becoming slightly choppy after midnight. A chance of showers early in the evening, then showers in the late evening and overnight. Patchy fog after midnight.
Tuesday..North winds 15 to 25 knots becoming 20 to 25 knots in the afternoon. Bay waters choppy becoming rough in the afternoon. Showers in the morning, then a chance of showers in the afternoon.
Tuesday night..North winds 15 to 25 knots becoming 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Bay waters choppy.
Wednesday..North winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northeast 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Bay waters choppy becoming slightly choppy in the afternoon.
Wednesday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy.
Thursday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy.
Thursday night..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth.
Friday..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth.
Friday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest after midnight. Bay waters smooth.
GMZ300 Synopsis For High Island To The Matagorda Ship Channel Out 60 Nautical Miles Including Galveston And Matagorda Bays 330 Am Cst Mon Dec 9 2019
Synopsis for high island to matagorda ship channel out 60 nm.. Onshore flow will continue ahead, though veering more southwesterly, ahead of a cold front. The front should move across the waters Tuesday morning bringing rain showers and an outside shot at an isolated lightning strike. SEa fog is possible tonight until the cold front moves through and ends the fog threat. Winds and seas will reach advisory criteria in the wake of the front from Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday morning, with gusts approaching gale force.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Port O'Connor CDP, TX
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location: 28.44, -96.4     debug


Area Discussion for - Houston/Galveston, TX
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FXUS64 KHGX 091119 AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 519 AM CST Mon Dec 9 2019

AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance].

Outside of the Houston/Galveston area, widespread IFR/MVFR conditions, and with MVFR SCT decks there, even the last remaining VFR obs should slip to MVFR in the next few hours. Expect only very slow improvement through the morning, allowing for a few barely VFR hours across Southeast Texas until an incoming front causes degradation in flight conditions again.

Deeper into the afternoon, streamer showers will start to become more common near the coast, with the front sparking even greater shower chances overnight. There's an outside shot for a stray lightning strike, but right now it looks like thunder is not likely.

PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 352 AM CST Mon Dec 9 2019/.

SHORT TERM [Through Tuesday Night].

A thick, broken veil of thick cirrus is making satellite observation of tonight's low stratus and fog difficult tonight. Simultaneously, the cirrus (and some stronger winds) are likely disrupting the development of fog, and will favor stratus through the overnight hours. Surface obs show a bit of fog here and there, but most are seeing low cloud heights - as low as 800 feet in spots, and closer to 2000 feet in others. This should likely continue through the night, with the 2000 foot cloud decks likely to drift downwards to meet the spots with lower cloud bases.

Today, look for southwest winds to continue to pump Gulf moisture into the area with dewpoints rising up into the upper 60s to nearly 70 degrees today and tonight. In the meantime, we'll have to look out west for our next big weather feature.

Water vapor reveals two upper troughs making their way through/out of the West. An upper trough dropping off the Rockies into the Northern Plains is trailing an upper low in the southern jet stream currently centered near Las Vegas. The northern trough will support lee cyclogenesis over the Plains, which will then propagate towards the Great Lakes, with a cold front dropping all the way into West Texas. While the northern trough and the location of the surface low will surely be too far away to help spur unsettled weather, the southern trough will be swooping in just in time to result in vigorous cyclonic vorticity advecting over the area, and we may yet catch some benefit from a departing jet streak.

Timing the front is still a bit tricky, but the general idea of a Monday night frontal passage is still on track. We'll see a bit of instability present this afternoon, but I generally expect it to be wasted given (west-)southwest flow through the column. We may see some streamer showers/drizzle crop up over the nearshore waters and at the coast, but that should be about it.

Rain chances should ramp up significantly overnight as the front moves into the region. An isolated rumble of thunder isn't out of the question, but I left it out of the forecast as the timing is pretty poor, and the environment doesn't really support the maintenance of instability through the night. Though confidence in a broad area of showers is high, precipitable water is not progged to be terribly high - generally under 1.5 inches. Given the time of year, this does bring us into the ballpark of the 90th percentile, but that and an awkward inflow fetch should limit rainfall totals. PQPF shows that exceeding a tenth of an inch is probably a slam dunk, and getting at least a quarter inch is very likely for all but our westernmost areas. But we see a strong drop-off in probability of exceeding half an inch, and exceeding an inch is very unlikely.

LONG TERM [Wednesday Through Monday].

Wednesday morning is likely the coldest morning of this week and the upcoming weekend with temperatures near freezing across parts of our far northern counties where winds will be the lightest and clouds will be at a minimum. Elsewhere where there will be a little more wind and clouds, lows should range from the mid/upper 30s inland to the low/mid 40s at the coast. After high temperatures remain in the 50s for both Wednesday and Thursday, a warmup is in store for the area with Friday's highs in the low/mid 60s and Saturday through Monday's highs in the upper 60s/mid 70s. The area's next best chance of rain in this long term forecast period looks like it might come around a week from today (Mondayish) when another cold front moves through the area. 42

MARINE.

Sea fog will gradually become an increasing concern as dewpoints slowly rise towards water temps in the shallower Gulf and nearshore waters. Mitigating the concern somewhat is the expectation for generally southwesterly winds, which is not an ideal fetch for sea fog. For now, conditions look pretty good on webcams along shore.

Potential will continue into the day, but will be a precarious balance of dewpoints, water temps, wind fetch, and rains. For what it's worth, more guidance shows fog emerging late this afternoon and this evening as daytime mixing ends and winds near the coast back slightly . and perhaps just enough for fog to snap into the picture. This may not be a great recipe for dense sea fog to form, but I'd expect at least some fog development today/tonight, with a short window of dense fog before the front arrives to end the threat.

Though the front will put an end to any sea fog threat, it will also introduce stronger winds and seas. Onshore flow today will be very near the SCEC threshold in the offshore waters. And though the forecast is not quite enough to require that, we'll look for strong northerly winds to develop on Tuesday behind the front. The need for a small craft advisory looks nearly certain at this range, and came close to issuing a gale watch for the offshore waters Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night. Definitely stay tuned to the forecast for this post-frontal position for the latest on winds behind the cold front.

Luchs

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS.

College Station (CLL) 81 44 46 34 57 / 0 80 80 10 10 Houston (IAH) 81 52 54 39 57 / 10 90 90 20 10 Galveston (GLS) 75 60 62 45 57 / 10 80 90 30 10

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES.

TX . None. GM . None.



SHORT TERM . Luchs LONG TERM . 42 AVIATION . Luchs MARINE . Luchs


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PCNT2 - 8773701 - Matagorda Bay; Port O'Connor, TX 0 mi72 min S 5.1 G 6 67°F 67°F1010.6 hPa
MBET2 4 mi72 min SSW 8 G 8.9 69°F 65°F1009.5 hPa
SDRT2 - 8773037 - Seadrift, TX 17 mi72 min S 5.1 G 6 69°F 67°F1011 hPa
VCAT2 18 mi72 min SSW 7 G 8.9 68°F 66°F1010.6 hPa
AWRT2 26 mi72 min SSW 8 G 8.9 69°F 67°F1010 hPa
EMAT2 32 mi66 min SSE 4.1 G 5.1 67°F 66°F1010.5 hPa (+0.0)
KBBF 38 mi31 min SSW 23 140°F 136°F
KBQX 42 mi31 min S 12 72°F 70°F
RCPT2 - 8774770 - Rockport, TX 45 mi72 min 70°F 1010.2 hPa
SGNT2 47 mi66 min S 5.1 G 6 68°F 65°F1010.7 hPa (-0.5)

Wind History for Port OConnor, TX
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Palacios Municipal Airport, TX21 mi13 minVar 64.00 miFog/Mist68°F66°F93%1011.2 hPa
Port Lavaca - Calhoun County Airport, TX21 mi11 minSSW 85.00 miFog/Mist71°F69°F95%1011.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPKV

Wind History from PKV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE3CalmE4SE8E7S12
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1 day agoN4N7N11N8NE7NE5NE4NE4N3NE5NE3SE4S4S3S3CalmCalm--CalmCalmCalmN3N3Calm
2 days agoNW3W5NW12N14N10N12
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Tide / Current Tables for Port O'Connor, Matagorda Bay, Texas
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Port O'Connor
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:31 AM CST     Moonset
Mon -- 07:06 AM CST     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:09 AM CST     0.06 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 03:56 PM CST     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:29 PM CST     Sunset
Mon -- 08:30 PM CST     0.84 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.70.60.60.60.50.40.30.20.10.10.10.10.10.20.30.50.60.70.80.80.80.80.80.8

Tide / Current Tables for Port Lavaca, Lavaca Causeway, Matagorda Bay, Texas
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of SouthCentralPlains    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Houston/Galveston, TX (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Corpus Christi, TX
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.