Tuesday, August20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Port O'Connor, TX

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:58AMSunset 8:04PM Tuesday August 20, 2019 11:36 AM CDT (16:36 UTC) Moonrise 10:13PMMoonset 10:15AM Illumination 75% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ330 Matagorda Bay- 1021 Am Cdt Tue Aug 20 2019
Rest of today..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Bay waters smooth becoming slightly choppy in the afternoon. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tonight..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Bay waters smooth becoming slightly choppy in the afternoon. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots decreasing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Bay waters slightly choppy becoming smooth after midnight. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday and Thursday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth. A chance of showers.
Saturday and Saturday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
GMZ300 Synopsis For High Island To The Matagorda Ship Channel Out 60 Nautical Miles Including Galveston And Matagorda Bays 1021 Am Cdt Tue Aug 20 2019
Synopsis for high island to matagorda ship channel out 60 nm.. Onshore flow persists through the remainder of the week as high pressure continues to build into the the central gulf of mexico. Periods of scattered showers and Thunderstorms are expected over the coastal waters through the next several days, which may result in some brief gusty winds. Winds may increase towards the end of the week and into the weekend with an increase in shower and Thunderstorm activity.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Port O'Connor CDP, TX
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location: 28.44, -96.4     debug


Area Discussion for - Houston/Galveston, TX
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Fxus64 khgx 201136
afdhgx
area forecast discussion
national weather service houston galveston tx
636 am cdt Tue aug 20 2019

Aviation [12z TAF issuance]
Other than some brief MVFR cloud decks this morning at kcll and
along the coast,VFR conditions are expected with tsra developing
late this morning and early afternoon. There should be enough
moisture along the coast to move inland to support scattered
showers and a few thunderstorms. Hi-res cams href seem on track
with these trends this morning so adjusted timing of vcts tsra
based on this but tafs already had timing close to new guidance.

We should have similar conditions going into Wednesday but less
convection.

Overpeck

Prev discussion issued 412 am cdt Tue aug 20 2019
Short term [today through Wednesday morning]
Radar has become a tad more active the last hour in the upper texas
coastal waters of the gulf. Showers are developing from galveston
east along the coast. This seems to be within an axis of higher
moisture per GOES 16 precip water product. Mesoanalysis of pwat
indicates an axis of 1.9 to 2.1 inches of pwat where these showers
are developing. There is also some surface convergence along the
coast with higher surface winds over the waters and calm winds
inland. Upper level analysis shows NE flow aloft with the center of
an upper level ridge over west tx. There are still some higher 500mb
heights over the area so convergence and moist unstable airmass will
need to overcome subsidence for storms today.

Available convective allowing models all paint a similar picture
with convection initiating along the coast as we are currently
seeing now on radar. This activity spreads inland towards houston
through the late morning hours and into the afternoon. Activity ends
late in the afternoon with the loss of heating. There will likely be
outflow boundaries that cause new development and propagation of
rainfall inland. Storms will likely be capable of brief heavy
rainfall, lightning and gusty winds. It does not look like a pattern
for severe wind gusts or flooding rainfall other than the street
flooding variety with rain rates of 1-2" an hour. Those rates
should only lasting for an hour. It does not look like this
activity should last into the overnight hours. Temperatures today
will be tricky due to the convection especially for areas along
the coast and houston. Farther inland temperatures should reach
the upper 90s again with the idea of cloud cover and showers
holding down temps slightly from the last day or two closer to the
coast.

Overpeck

Long term [Thursday night through Tuesday]
The upper level ridge that was overhead during the first half of the
week, should weaken and shift to the northwest by Wednesday morning.

Typical coverage of showers and thunderstorms will continue
Wednesday with most of the focus for development along small-scale
features such as the bay and sea breezes and lingering outflow
boundaries. High temperatures Wednesday through Saturday will
remain in the low to upper 90s, but in general should be a touch
cooler each day with better cloud cover prevailing by the end of
the week.

The surge of moisture and associated vorticity MAX will shift from
the southwestern section of the gulf of mexico north towards the
upper texas coast Thursday. A surge of precipitable water values
between 2.1 to 2.5 inches will translate across the gulf and move
into the region, bringing the best moisture south of i-10 by
Thursday afternoon and keep the moisture in place essentially
through Saturday morning. This area of disturbed weather still
remains disorganized in the GFS and ecmwf, with an upper level
trough shifting northward and remaining overhead before
shifting eastward by Sunday. The nam12 is more aggressive with
this system, looking slightly better organized in the upper levels
and also dragging better moisture values up over SE tx in
comparison to the other global models. Therefore, more widespread
precipitation chances look possible as early as Thursday morning
over the gulf waters, spreading inland by the afternoon hours, and
continuing through essentially Saturday afternoon. At this time,
it still looks like the best rainfall accumulations should remain
over the gulf waters, but cant rule out a widespread 1 to 2
inches mostly south of i-10 Thursday through Saturday. Forecast
soundings do show an inverted v profile mostly during the
afternoon hours during this time period, so gusty winds could be
possible with any stronger storms that do develop.

Heights should be on the rise come Sunday, and the higher
precipitable water values lower back to less than 2 inches area
wide. The typical summertime pattern of diurnally driven showers and
thunderstorms looks to return early next week.

Hathaway

Marine
A rip current statement for the risk of strong rip currents remains
in effect through the late morning hours today along gulf facing
beaches. Light to moderate onshore flow continues across the bays
and gulf waters this morning and should prevail most of the day.

Overall expectation is for a typical summer time pattern with
onshore winds increasing at night and decreasing during the day.

Seas should remain low through the next couple of days. We are going
to have to monitor a tropical disturbance that moves into the gulf
for the end of the week and weekend. The system at this point may
cause a brief increase in winds and seas. We are not expecting any
tropical development.

Overpeck

Preliminary point temps pops
College station (cll) 98 77 98 76 98 20 0 10 0 10
houston (iah) 94 78 95 78 94 50 0 30 10 30
galveston (gls) 92 83 94 86 94 70 20 30 20 40

Hgx watches warnings advisories
Tx... High rip current risk until 10 am cdt this morning for the
following zones: brazoria islands... Galveston island and
bolivar peninsula... Matagorda islands.

Gm... None.

Aviation... Overpeck


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PCNT2 - 8773701 - Matagorda Bay; Port O'Connor, TX 0 mi54 min SW 8.9 G 12 86°F 87°F1016.6 hPa
MBET2 4 mi48 min SW 8 G 8.9 85°F 1015.9 hPa
SDRT2 - 8773037 - Seadrift, TX 17 mi54 min S 7 G 8.9 86°F 87°F1017.2 hPa
VCAT2 18 mi54 min S 9.9 G 11 86°F 87°F1016.7 hPa
AWRT2 26 mi54 min SSW 8 G 9.9 85°F 86°F1017.1 hPa
EMAT2 32 mi48 min S 8 G 11 87°F 85°F1016.6 hPa
KBBF 38 mi41 min S 8.9 86°F 73°F
KBQX 42 mi41 min S 8 86°F 77°F
RCPT2 - 8774770 - Rockport, TX 45 mi54 min 85°F 1016.9 hPa
SGNT2 47 mi48 min S 6 G 8.9 87°F 88°F1016.9 hPa

Wind History for Port OConnor, TX
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Palacios Municipal Airport, TX21 mi1.7 hrsSSW 89.00 miMostly Cloudy90°F75°F63%1016.7 hPa
Port Lavaca - Calhoun County Airport, TX21 mi1.7 hrsS 77.00 miMostly Cloudy90°F75°F62%1017.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPKV

Wind History from PKV (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Port O'Connor, Matagorda Bay, Texas
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Port O'Connor
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:32 AM CDT     0.22 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:57 AM CDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:03 AM CDT     0.36 feet High Tide
Tue -- 11:15 AM CDT     Moonset
Tue -- 02:46 PM CDT     0.31 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:59 PM CDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:33 PM CDT     0.43 feet High Tide
Tue -- 11:12 PM CDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.30.30.20.20.20.20.30.30.30.40.40.40.30.30.30.30.30.30.40.40.40.40.40.4

Tide / Current Tables for Port Lavaca, Lavaca Causeway, Matagorda Bay, Texas
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of SouthCentralPlains    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Houston/Galveston, TX (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Corpus Christi, TX
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.