Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Conway, FL

UPDATE
Issued at 935 AM EDT Fri May 23 2025

Removed the small PoPs for early/mid morning across southern sections but forecast philosophy for convective evolution still looks on track for this afternoon with highest coverage south of Orlando where higher moisture exists. Based on morning Cape sounding, lowered dewpoints slightly across the far north which produces min RH values between 25 and 30 percent north of I 4 corridor.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
Issued at 410 AM EDT Fri May 23 2025

Today-Tonight...Temperatures and dew points are starting out a couple/few degrees cooler this morning, especially north of the Orlando metro. However, less cloud cover in the forecast means we will have no issue reaching the low to mid 90s this afternoon.
And so, the warmer and more humid trend commences. A few spots around Lake Kissimmee and Okeechobee will approach 100-degree heat indices today.

Focus turns to the potential development of showers and lightning storms from mid afternoon into the early evening.
Recent CAMs and medium-range guidance all tend to favor the southern half of east central Florida, where -10C temperatures and ~25 kt of westerly wind at 500mb will be marginally supportive of a strong storm or two. Isolated convection looks to initiate along the developing east coast sea breeze after 1-2 PM, transitioning inland as the sea breeze marches westward. Storm- scale boundary collisions will lead to further development through early evening, primarily from Lake Kissimmee to Lake Okeechobee.
Gusty winds of 40-50 mph with an instance of locally damaging gusts to 60 mph are the main concern, along with hail to 1" in diameter, lightning strikes, and locally heavy rainfall. While the modeled environment does not appear overly favorable, a brief funnel cloud or tornado cannot be ruled out where boundary collisions occur. Notably, locations near and north of I-4 are expected to remain mostly dry today.

As the sun sets, lingering storms are forecast to gradually dissipate, leaving behind some offshore-moving showers through late evening. Overnight lows will settle into the upper 60s to low 70s as skies clear and dry conditions resume.

Saturday-Sunday...An increasingly hot and humid holiday weekend is in store as high pressure slowly builds over the state of Florida.
Similar conditions are forecast each day as a result, with highs reaching the low to mid 90s, morning lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s, and daily opportunities for isolated to scattered rain and storms. Due to an uptick in humidity, heat index values are forecast to approach or eclipse the 100-degree mark during peak heating. For those with outdoor plans, especially individuals sensitive to the heat (including visitors), adequate cooling/shade and hydration is encouraged. Generally, a 20-40% chance of rain and storms exists each day (up to 50% from Kissimmee to Okeechobee), with development focused along the inland-moving sea breeze.
Brief gusty winds, lightning strikes, and heavy downpours are possible. Lingering activity will wane after sunset each day.

Monday-Thursday...Heat and humidity stay in place next week as high pressure influences our weather pattern through at least Tuesday. Slightly greater confidence in the high temperature forecast exists through Thursday, due to a smaller interquartile spread in the NBE guidance. Thus, highs in the upper 80s to low 90s are forecast to continue, along with heat index values pushing higher (100-105F). The trend for afternoon/evening showers and storms will be more inland-focused, with a slightly later sea breeze collision and resultant convection. Model solutions are less clear mid to late week as the overall synoptic pattern favors increased troughing over the eastern CONUS. In addition, a surface front is forecast to approach north-central Florida Wednesday into Thursday, which could give a local boost to rain chances later in the week.

MARINE
Issued at 410 AM EDT Fri May 23 2025

A weak front to the south of the local waters will dissipate today, while another front becomes stationary near Jacksonville.
Light, variable winds turn onshore behind the east coast breeze this afternoon. Offshore-moving showers and lightning storms are forecast from mid afternoon through mid evening, mainly from Cape Canaveral southward. Some locally gusty winds are possible over inland lakes from Lake Kissimmee to Lake Okeechobee, as well as the adjacent Intracoastal and nearshore Atlantic waters.

With high pressure set to build over the area this holiday weekend into next week, generally favorable boating conditions will persist. Light southerly (and variable, at times) winds will back onshore each afternoon as the east coast breeze develops. A 20-40% chance of showers and lightning storms exists each afternoon.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 758 AM EDT Fri May 23 2025

VFR outside of convection. Winds remain light and variable through most of the morning. Light easterly flow becomes established as the east coast sea breeze moves inland this afternoon, and wind speeds generally remain 10 kts or less. VCTS remains focused from MCO southward this afternoon. Have included TEMPOs at FPR/SUA from 19/22Z with this TAF package.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 410 AM EDT Fri May 23 2025

Fire sensitive conditions will remain through today, especially along and north of I-4, where lower relative humidity is forecast.
In addition, isolated to scattered lightning storms from Orlando southward carry the potential for additional fire starts. As moisture improves this weekend into next week, fire weather concerns generally lessen.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 90 70 91 71 / 10 0 20 10 MCO 94 71 94 72 / 20 10 40 20 MLB 89 73 89 74 / 30 10 40 20 VRB 89 72 90 73 / 40 20 40 20 LEE 94 71 95 72 / 10 10 30 10 SFB 94 71 95 72 / 20 10 30 10 ORL 94 72 94 73 / 20 10 40 10 FPR 89 71 89 72 / 50 20 40 20

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
AM...None.