Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Clermont, FL

DISCUSSION
Issued at 255 PM EDT Tue Aug 4 2026

Rest of Today-Tonight...Offshore (southwesterly) flow across the Florida peninsula between a stalled front/cut-off mid-level low over the Deep South and the Bermuda High continues one last day, ushering along the west coast sea breeze while slowing the east coast breeze, which has developed from the Cape south. Isolated to scattered showers and lightning storms marching northeast have developed inland, and a few have popped up along the east coast sea breeze, some of which have slid off the boundary and offshore.
Expect a usual high moisture summer time storm evolution, with coverage of showers and storms increasing through the rest of the afternoon, becoming scattered to numerous and peaking as the sea breezes and outflow boundaries collides over East Central Florida.
A little bit of dry air has found its way into the lower-levels from near the Cape to Lake Kissimmee or so southward, which is inhibiting convection some, but could also enhance downdrafts and produce wind gusts up 55 mph. To the north the saturated atmosphere and water loading could still produce gusts 40-50 mph.
Other storms hazards will be frequent lightning and torrential rainfall. Storms and heavy showers that get hung up on boundaries, especially along the sea breeze collision, could become nearly stationary and delivery a quick 2-3" of rainfall, and there is a very low chance (10% or less) for locally high amounts over 4", that could lead to minor flooding of low-lying and poor drainage areas. Near normal temperatures with afternoon highs in the U80-L90s, resulting in peak afternoon heat indices around 100.

Wednesday-Thursday...We settle back into an onshore flow regime as the Bermuda High shifts west towards the eastern seaboard, quickly lifting the ridge axis through Florida Wednesday, then north of the area by Thursday. Moisture remains above normal Wednesday in the weakening southerly flow, then bands of relatively lower moisture begin to arrive Thursday in the easterly flow, but overall still staying near to above normal. Despite the high overall moisture, drier air in the low-levels Wednesday cuts back rain chances closer to normal, with the highest chances (50-70%) shifting towards the interior as the sea breeze is able to push farther inland, and lower chances (20-40%) along the coast. For Thursday will have to see how the moisture banding sets up, but for now forecast calls for a slight uptick in rain chances (40-60% along the coast and 50-70% inland). Storms will be capable of the usual threats, gusty winds to 50 mph, occasional to frequent lightning, and torrential downpours. Temperatures creep up a degree or two, but remain near to slightly below normal in the U80s-L90s.

Friday-Saturday...An inverted trough from the tropics is expected to approach Florida as it slides along the southern flank of the Bermuda high, but there is considerable disagreement in track and sharpness. The last few runs, the GFS suite has favored a stronger surface high, tracking the feature across Florida into the Gulf, while the ECM suite has favored a weaker high which recurves the system near to offshore the coast. The former could lead to banding of heavy rainfall across the peninsula, while the latter would limit heavy rainfall to the coast or keep it offshore. Both are dependent how sharp the trough becomes, with a sharper trough supporting banding of heavy rainfall, and the risk decreasing the weaker the feature stays. However, all scenarios are likely to produce rough surf and increase the threat of life-threatening rip currents at the beaches as onshore flow increases. Given the spread, broad above normal rain and storm chances are maintained in the forecast. Otherwise, not much change in temperatures which remain near normal, though tick up a degree or two Saturday.

Sunday-Monday (Previous Discussion)...From Sunday into early next week, cluster analysis shows strong agreement that the Bermuda high will flatten and stretch westward over the Gulf and Florida.
This would likely nudge the surface high pressure axis southward, perhaps reaching very close to our latitude by Monday. Somewhat drier air, associated with an approaching Saharan Air Layer (SAL), may impinge on South Florida in about a week. Guidance largely agrees that the surge of moisture associated with the aforementioned wave will lift northward and away from Central and South Florida by Sunday and especially Monday. However, moisture values should only tick down to near-normal values for mid-August.
With a robust sea breeze circulation expected, scattered storms (30-60%) should still form each day - with the greatest coverage over the interior.

As deep-layer ridging parks over Florida, temperatures may trend a bit hotter, into the low and mid 90s. This will be accompanied by very muggy conditions.

MARINE
Issued at 255 PM EDT Tue Aug 4 2026

Rest of Today-Thursday...Generally favorable boating conditions outside of lightning storms. A weak low pressure system over the Deep South dissipates as the Bermuda high shifts closer to the eastern seaboard. Offshore (SW-S) flow today becomes somewhat light/variable tonight into Wednesday as the ridge axis quickly lifts through Florida, settling to onshore (ESE-SE) late Wednesday onward as the axis parks across the Mid-Atlantic Seaboard. Wind speeds 5-15 kts. Seas 1-2 ft begin building to 2-4 ft Thursday as a weak tropical wave approaches. Scattered to numerous showers and lightning storms are expected near the coast today, some of which could push offshore, then the highest chances shift inland Wednesday and Thursday in the onshore flow. Isolated overnight/early morning showers and storms will be possible.

Friday-Saturday...Deteriorating boating conditions are possible as a weak tropical wave passes over or near the local Atlantic waters. While there is high confidence the wave will remain weak, confidence in the exact track is low. Seas are likely to build to 3-5 ft by Friday, and ERLY winds could increase to 15-20 kts over the Gulf Stream waters. There could also be gusty squalls if the wave does reach the local area.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 144 PM EDT Tue Aug 4 2026

VFR conditions are forecast outside of showers/lightning storms.
VCTS is forecast at all TAF sites after 18Z/19Z with TEMPO TSRA groups this evening mainly between 18Z/19Z-22Z/23Z. ESE winds at 5-10kts are forecast at the coastal TAFs; WSW winds at 5-10kts at the inland TAFs are expected to back SSE in the late afternoon and evening. The potential exists for isolated strong storms.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 74 88 75 89 / 50 30 30 40 MCO 75 90 75 91 / 40 50 30 60 MLB 75 88 77 88 / 50 30 30 40 VRB 74 88 77 88 / 50 40 30 60 LEE 75 90 75 91 / 20 50 30 60 SFB 75 90 75 91 / 50 50 30 50 ORL 75 90 76 91 / 40 50 30 50 FPR 74 88 76 88 / 50 40 40 60

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
AM...None.