Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Titusville, FL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
Issued at 438 AM EDT Wed May 21 2025

Today-Tonight... High pressure over the Florida peninsula will shift eastward through the day as a cold front moves eastward across the Gulf state towards the Florida panhandle during the day. The cold front will push into northern Florida tonight, reaching our far northern CWA around sunrise. Locally, west to southwest winds will increase to 10-15 mph with gusts 20-25 mph in the afternoon as the pressure gradient across the area tightens. Due to the dominate offshore flow, the east coast sea breeze will become pinned just off the coast, except across the Treasure Coast where the sea breeze is forecast to push onshore along the immediate coast. Mostly dry conditions are forecast through today. However, some models are indicating isolated showers will be possible this afternoon, mainly across the Treasure Coast and Okeechobee area, as well as across the far north into tonight as the front approaches the local area.
Confidence these showers (and possibly a lightning storm) will develop is too low to mention in the forecast at this time, so have kept mentionable rain chances out through tonight. Hot conditions are once again forecast today with well above normal temperatures expected. Afternoon highs will be in the low to mid 90s under mostly to partly sunny skies. Most of our climate site records are slightly higher today than they have been in previous day, so most sites are not expected to break or tie their record highs today. However, Vero Beach and Fort Pierce have the greatest potential to reach their record highs for the date. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 70s.

Thursday-Thursday night... The aforementioned weak cold front will be across our far northern CWA around sunrise and is forecast to continue to slowly move southward across the CWA through Thursday night, reaching the far southern Treasure Coast by sunrise on Friday. Warm conditions will continue Thursday despite the cold front. Temperatures will be more seasonable on Thursday as the cold front slowly moves southward across the area, with afternoon highs in the upper 80s to low 90s (with the warmest temperatures across the south where more daytime heating will occur). Overnight lows will also be seasonable with lows ranging from mid to upper 60s across the north to upper 60s to low 70s across the south. Winds will become west to northwest Thursday morning before shifting easterly in the afternoon as the east coast sea breeze forms and pushes inland, with speeds remaining 10 mph or less.

Rain and lightning storm chances increases Thursday as moisture increases along and ahead the front. There is a medium to high (30- 60 percent) chance of rain and lightning storms areawide through the day. The greatest potential for storms however will be Kissimmee to Palm Bay southward in the afternoon. Some storms may be strong to marginally severe Thursday afternoon and evening. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has outlooked portions of east central Florida in a Marginal Risk ( Level 1 out of 5) for severe storms on Thursday, mainly near to south of a line from Lake Kissimmee to Melbourne. Forecast soundings show a favorable environment for strong to marginally severe storms with sufficient instability (MUCAPE 1000-2200 J/kg), decent shear (SFC-1km shear around 20-60 KT), adequate DCAPE 200-700 J/kg, cooler temperatures aloft (-8 to - 10 C at 500mb), as well as decent low-level moisture (PW values between 1.5-1.8"). Thus, the primary storm threats on Thursday will be gusty winds of 40-60 mph, hail up to 1" in diameter, frequent lightning, and locally heavy downpours of 1-3". There is also a very low (less than 2 percent) chance for a brief tornado, mainly near to south of a line from Lake Kissimmee to Melbourne.

Friday-Tuesday... The aforementioned weak cold front will continue to slowly shift southward into South Florida on Friday before slowly shifting back northward across Treasure Coast/Okeechobee counties on Saturday, and back across north Florida on Sunday. Surface high pressure will build behind the front through early next week.
Lingering moisture across the area into the weekend will keep rain chances in the forecast. There is a a medium to high (30-60 percent)
chance of rain from Cape Canaveral to Kissimmee southward on Friday, with a low (20 percent) of lightning storms. Some storms may be strong to marginally severe. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has outlooked portions of east central Florida in a Marginal Risk ( Level 1 out of 5) for severe storms on Friday, mainly southeast of I- 4 corridor. The primary storm threats on Thursday will be gusty winds of 40-60 mph, hail up to 1" in diameter, frequent lightning, and locally heavy downpours of 1-3".

Rain chances will linger into early next week. There is a low (20 percent) chance of rain from Orlando southward on Sunday, and a medium (30 percent) chance of rain on Monday and 40 percent chance on Tuesday. Light northwest winds Friday and Saturday morning will become east to southeast along the coast each afternoon as the east coast sea breeze forms and pushes inland. Winds will then become southeast on Sunday and increase to 10-15 mph before decreasing to around 10 mph and veering south to southeast into early next week.
Afternoon highs will be in the upper 80s to low 90s along the coast, and low to mid 90s across the interior each day.

MARINE
Issued at 438 AM EDT Wed May 21 2025

Today-Sunday... Surface Atlantic ridge will remain over the the Florida peninsula today before a weak cold front moves across the local waters on Thursday. The front will stall across Central or South Florida Friday before slowly lifting northward as weak warm front this weekend. High pressure will build back over the local waters into the weekend. Mostly favorable boating conditions are forecast through the week outside of lightning storms. West to southwest winds today will increase to 10-15 mph with gusts 20-25 mph in the afternoon as the pressure gradient across the area tightens. Winds will veer southerly in the afternoon as the east coast sea breeze forms, put will remained pinned just off the coast due to the dominate offshore flow. Northwest winds early in the morning on Thursday through Sunday will become northeast to east in the afternoon behind the seabreeze. Seas 1-3ft early this morning will decrease to 1-2 ft by this afternoon before increasing to 2-3ft by Thursday which will continue through Sunday. While conditions will be mostly dry today, there are scattered to numerous offshore- moving showers and lightning storms forecast on Thursday and Friday with isolated to scattered storms possible on Saturday and Sunday.
Some storms may be strong to marginally severe on Thursday and Friday which will be capable of producing 34 KT or greater wind gusts, frequent lightning and hail up to 1" in diameter.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 111 PM EDT Wed May 21 2025

VFR conditions prevailing through Thursday morning. Some indications for brief CIG reductions at LEE towards sunrise, though this is low confidence. Westerly winds today will largely prevent the sea breeze from moving onshore. However, winds are forecast to veer southerly from VRB southward along the coast from around 20-2Z, before returning to offshore. Winds up to 12 kts and gusts to 20 kts this afternoon will diminish this evening.
Northerly winds early Thursday morning veer northeasterly through the day, as a weak front moves through the area. Shower and storm chances return, mainly after 18Z. Have included a VCTS mention at MCO beginning at 19Z. The highest coverage looks to be in the mid to late afternoon over the interior south of MCO, before storms move offshore into the evening hours.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 438 AM EDT Wed May 21 2025

Fire sensitive weather will continue through late week as min RH values will fall to 40-45 percent in the afternoon today, and 35-40 percent across the north with 40-45 percent everywhere else on Thursday as moisture decreases behind the front. Min RH values will fall to 35-45 percent across most areas on Friday. West to southwest winds today will increase to 10-15 mph with gusts up to 25 in the afternoon, shifting to the southeast along the coast with the sea breeze. North to northwest winds on Thursday and Friday will become easterly in the afternoon as the east coast sea breeze forms and moves inland, with speeds generally 10 mph or less. Rain and storm chances increase late week as a weak front moves across east central Florida. While east central Florida will be mostly dry today, there is a medium to high (30-60 percent)
chance for rain and lightning storms Thursday and Friday. Some storms may be strong to marginally severe. The primary storm threats on Thursday will be gusty winds of 40-60 mph, hail up to 1" in diameter, frequent lightning, and locally heavy downpours of 1-3".

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 73 86 68 90 / 10 20 10 10 MCO 75 90 71 93 / 20 40 10 20 MLB 74 87 72 89 / 10 40 20 30 VRB 73 89 72 90 / 10 40 20 40 LEE 74 89 70 93 / 20 30 10 10 SFB 75 90 70 93 / 20 30 10 20 ORL 76 91 72 93 / 20 30 10 20 FPR 72 89 71 89 / 10 40 20 40

MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
AM...None.